PUP 0.03% vs LNP
Incumbent MP
Clive Palmer, since 2013.
Geography
Sunshine Coast of Queensland. Fairfax covers the central part of Sunshine Coast Regional Council. It covers the towns of Buderim, Maroochydore and Nambour, as well as following the coast from Maroochydore to Coolum Beach.
History
Fairfax was first created in 1984 when the House of Representatives was expanded, and has always been held by conservative parties. The seat was first won by Evan Adermann of the National Party, who had previously held Fisher since the 1972 election and served as a minister in the Fraser government.
Adermann retired at the 1990 election, and the seat was fought as a three-cornered contest in 1990. The ALP came first on primaries, with the Nationals leading the Liberals by 0.7% on primary votes. A high Democrats vote pushed the Liberals ahead of Nationals candidate John Stone, who had resigned from the Senate to contest the seat, and Liberal candidate Alex Somlyay won the seat on National preferences.
Somlyay held the seat by varying margins, most recently having a margin of over 62% following the redistribution before the 2007 election. A 9.4% swing to the ALP made Fairfax a marginal seat following the 2007 election. A 4% swing back to the LNP strengthened Somlyay’s position in 2010.
In 2013, Alex Somlyay retired, and the seat was won by Clive Palmer, running for his newly founded Palmer United Party. The race was extremely close, only being decided after weeks of counting. Palmer won by only 57 votes.
Candidates
- Sue Etheridge (Greens)
- David Rees (Family First)
- Keith Campbell (Independent)
- Scott Anderson (Labor)
- Ted O’Brien (Liberal National)
- Kris Bullen (Online Direct Democracy)
- Robert Dickson (Independent)
- Robert Pasquali (One Nation)
Assessment
With Clive Palmer’s decision not to recontest his seat, Fairfax should easily return to the Liberal National Party.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ted O’Brien | Liberal National | 34,959 | 41.3 | -8.1 |
| Clive Frederick Palmer | Palmer United Party | 22,409 | 26.5 | +26.5 |
| Elaine Lexie Hughes | Labor | 15,429 | 18.2 | -9.1 |
| David Knobel | Greens | 7,046 | 8.3 | -9.7 |
| Ray Sawyer | Katter’s Australian Party | 1,623 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Angela Meyer | Family First | 1,416 | 1.7 | -3.6 |
| Trudy Byrnes | Independent | 1,016 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| Mike Holt | One Nation | 709 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
| Informal | 4,569 | 5.4 |
2013 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Clive Frederick Palmer | Palmer United Party | 42,330 | 50.0 | |
| Ted O’Brien | Liberal National | 42,277 | 50.0 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Those booths near the coast have been split into “North-East” and “South-East”. The south-east is the most populous part of the seat, including Maroochydore and Buderim. The north-east includes seats close to the coast.
Booths away from the coast have been split into those near the town of Nambour, and the other booths grouped as “West”.
Clive Palmer won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote against the LNP in three out of four areas, ranging from 54.4% in the north-east to 57.6% in Nambour. The LNP won 50.6% in the south-east, which is the most populous part of the seat.
Labor came third with a vote ranging from 16.6% in the west to 20% in the north-east.
| Voter group | ALP % | PUP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 18.1 | 49.4 | 17,243 | 20.4 |
| Nambour | 17.8 | 57.6 | 12,122 | 14.3 |
| North-East | 20.0 | 54.4 | 9,937 | 11.7 |
| West | 16.6 | 55.8 | 6,104 | 7.2 |
| Other votes | 18.2 | 46.0 | 39,201 | 46.3 |
Bye Bye Clive, & good riddance
No matter how much $$$ Clive pours here he is a goner. Ted O’Brien has HUGE name recognition in the electorate. Even then however, I would expect the margin two candidate preferred for the LNP to be cut significantly, this seat is prone to very large swings.
Will Clive get more than 10%?
@Goosh Goosh, you’d be surprised. I mean, even Craig Thompson got 4% in Dobell…
I’d normally say that independent and minor party incumbents generally retain their seats for as long as they recontest.
Indeed, PUP support has very well collapsed across the board since the last election, but Clive could very well have acquired a significant enough personal vote to be able to retain the seat – similar to the KAP in the last Qld state election: support across the board collapsed, but they retained their two seats with swings towards the incumbents. Similar situation could very well occur with Clive in this seat.
Though he has apparently being a non-existent local member which would naturally go against him being able to build local personal support.
Matt, I can very much say, without a hint of doubt, that Mr Palmer has no ‘personal vote’ in Fairfax. If he recontests, which I believe he is, his primary vote would be between 6-10% max. The LNP will win this with ease.
Clive was polling about 5% in Fairfax the last poll I saw.
Does it even make sense to talk about the “personal vote” for the eponymous member of a party? How can you separate votes for Clive-Palmer-The-Individual from votes for the Palmer United Party?
Basically his entire vote was and is personal vote.
Latest news stories say that (according to PUP Senator Wang) Palmer is canvassing to switch to the Senate – the gutless wonder.
Palmer ruled that out in a presser yesterday.
Palmer has pulled out as a candidate for Fairfax.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-04/clive-palmer-will-not-seek-reelection-house-of-representatives/7382498
And with Palmer out of the running, this will be an easy LNP gain.
It was always going to be an easy gain for the LNP. Apparently Palmer may run for the Senate, but I’d doubt he could get elected even in a DD election, in fact it’d be a kick in the face but Lazarus would probably poll even higher.
L96
The Brick (with eyes) is sure he’s a chance in QLD. I hope so, he adds some colour
Does anyone know who is running for Fisher?
Fisher is #3 on my to-do list, so expect a post to be up tomorrow.
Your candidates list for Fairfax is not up to date..there is a 5th starter!
KEITH CAMPBELL – INDEPENDENT FOR FAIRFAX – A better way…Not More of the Same!
(Team colours – Orange).
At 54, Keith is a fifth generation Sunshine Coaster with an impressive local family history.
His Mother’s family were among the early settlers of Woombye in the 1870’s and his Father and Grandfather grew sugar cane from 1912.
Check out his bio at : “keithcampbellforfairfax”
Maybe the seat of Fairfax is not such a safe LNP seat after all!
Jeannie
I am voting 1, One Nation Rob Pasquali.
My prediction: Perhaps the most certain result in 2016 – the LNP will easily win this Sunshine Coast seat, and would even if Clive Palmer wasn’t retiring.