Dobell – Australia 2016

Ben
If memory serves Thompson was accused of pretty much everything in his FIRST term. Many ALP voters gave him the benefit of the doubt,innocent until proven, or felt he deserved his day etc, etc.

It’s true that the allegations against Thomson were known before the 2010 election (you can see them mentioned in his bio here http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/dobe.htm ), but they didn’t gain wide publicity until after the election when it became politically significant to expose any dirt that any Labor MP might’ve had lying around. It kind of highlights how issues like this only get taken seriously when political opponents decide to make a big deal of them. Take the early 1990s ICAC inquiry into north coast land deals for a great example – it made adverse findings against figures from both the National and Labor parties, so nobody could make any political hay out of it and many of the key figures involved went on to bigger and better things in politics.

Nick C
i guess you are right. It is still a bit of a struggle for me to think how anyone could have had any illusions about, or missed the publicity this deviant got.

Emma McBride is a strong candidate (daughter of former ALP state MP) – she ran in Dobell in 2013 at the last minute and almost won. With the favourable redistribution, name recognition and a long campaign I think she’ll win.

The Libs have been having trouble on the Central Coast for a while now, I am surprised they are even in contention but still think (especially with the redistribution and strong Labor candidate) that the ALP will likely win this seat, irrespective of the incumbency advantage for McNamara.

W of S
The libs have been outperforming here for a while. The issue is that Dobell is simply a Labor seat. No amount of pork, or the presence of a highly impressive MP will change that. It is simply too much, to expect McNamara to secure enough primary votes, from all the preferences she got in 2013. The shame is that McNamara is not in Robertson, as she seems far more capable than Lucy Wicks.

@Winediamond, thanks for clearing that up. I admit freely that my psephological knowledge is mainly (although not exclusively) focused on metropolitan areas so it is good to hear a more ‘seasoned’ perspective. So if Dobell is fundamentally a Labor seat, is there a reason as to why the Libs have done pretty well here in the Howard years and recently? Is it the better state performance of the Coalition in NSW in recent years or something else?

Winediamond that is complete rubbish in the last 20 years the highest primary vote recorded in dobell is from the liberal party. This is always a swing seat as are the state seats generally there’s no party loyalty on the coast it’s always on whose going to deliver best for the region. Karen is one of the worst MPs backing tony walking with him and trying to spin it. She’s also incredibly arrogant and so rude she was terrible on the low rating program Paul Murray when she was on, this loss for the Libs would be very deserving.

W of S
Well lets start with the fabulously stellar performance of local Labor MPs since 2007.
Springing spectacularly straight to mind are
1/ Craig Thompson
2/ Belinda Neal
3/ Deb O’Niel
Such a wonderfully impressive lot, wouldn’t you agree ??
This was Brilliantly supported at a Federal level by the remarkable RGR govts !!!

In a more historical context we have to go back to 1996 when Jim Lloyd won Robertson. One of the most obsessively hardworking, diligent, & devoted MP’S ever. He worked his ring off.
He was a JWH favourite, & got money spent, & things happened. His competency was rewarded with a ministry.
i have little knowledge of Ken Ticehurst, however it would appear he was cut from the same cloth. He certainly seemed to meet the expectations of Dobell , given his electoral performance.
Perhaps the burghers of Dobell developed, an appreciation, & taste for pork !!??
Dobell had certainly been starved, & neglected, in more than a metaphorical sense, in all those years of ALP representation !!!.

Dan
More diatribe. Disagree completely. The primary vote is inconsequential. The 2PP is.

Don’t forget the liberal line up

1/ Chris Spence
2/ Darren Webber
3/ Chris Hartcher
Not to forget the party swapping populist Chris Holstein. The Libs on the coast have been terrible no wonder they lost 3/4 seats last election despite the popularity of Baird. Also labor invested more on roads in the 6 years of government then the Libs did in their 12. Ken and jim both deserved to lose they just couldn’t deliver and no wonder jim was rejected as the state candidate for terrigal by the Libs he’s useless.

Dan
You are dead right about the state libs.
Supply evidence on your assertion on roads, as it is outlandish. Besides which it is dead easy to spend as much as you like when you don’t give a stuff how much is borrowed. Someone has to pay in the end, our children i expect will inherit this “legacy’

Jim was rejected by the lib party machine, because he is STRAIGHT, not useless.
They knew they could not, & would not control him.
Jim may not be a brain surgeon. However i’ll take a dedicated worker, over an arrogant,self-important, egomaniacal, intellectual everyday. Does the name Rudd ring any bells for you mate ???

Whilst I agree that there has been a dismal performance by NSW state Liberal MPs on the Central Coast, the ALP only narrowly squeaked by in both The Entrance and Gosford in the NSW state election even with the cards stacked entirely in their favour. Pretty good result I would say for the Central Coast Libs.

Big news today on the Wallarah 2 coal mine. SMH. Mc Bride is completely against it, McNamara slightly less so.
Something like 3500 jobs in the offing . Ive looked at the environmental concerns, & they look very manageable. I have no idea, what McBride is talking about when she says there is a critical threat to water catchment. They are not even intending to wash the coal ( on site ) FFS !!!!

It all depends whether you agree with mining coal at all, i guess. It does look like significant local, & possibly vote changing issue. My feeling is it will do labor, & McBride personally no good at all.

this will be a close result – I think Mcnamara has performed much better than Wicks in next electorate of Robertson yet Wicks looks likely to hold her seat safely. However I would not be surprised if McNamara wins as it appears Coalition are hanging on in marginals.
The real interest is Senate

Visions
What has Karen done for you to give her the tick ??. Also any thoughts on Wallarah 2 ??

Interesting analysis, however, it ignores the absolute debacle that Labor had with starting the campaign in 2013 without a candidate, McBride coming in after the election was called and coming within 1000 votes. It ignores the fact that Labor had a strong result in Wyong (59% of the 2PP and over 50% of the primary vote), Swansea and The Entrance at the State election. The 3 seats that contain make up Dobell. I think that combined with her high public profile, and the redistribution, this seat should go to Labor regardless of who wins government. However, I get the feeling it will be close.

ReachTEL poll out a few minutes ago show’s a big swing to Labor. Result is Labor 53 Liberal 47. Game on for Bill methinks.

@JH is 2% really a big swing though? IMO I don’t think so.

Wreathy – pretty sure he’s describing a big swing compared with previous polls. A swing of 2-3% over a couple of weeks is pretty big.

Wreathy I am starting to think that Labor has traction and it could not come at a better time for them. Interesting few days ahead of us methinks.

@Glen if it’s correct. Serious doubts that it is.

@JH I struggle to believe that a few union-commissioned polls equals Labor gaining traction.

Yes Wreathy the union commissioned thing? Forgot about that LOL. Hmmm customer bias factored in by the pollster? We shall see.

Galaxy poll out tonight has Dobell 2PP, Lib 51%, ALP 49%

Jasper – what the customer wants asked can influence the results of the poll.

If the poll starts with a heap of questions about Gonski funding, and then at the end asks who the person is going to vote for, then they’ll be a bit more likely to choose Labor. Ever heard of a Push Poll?

Indeed I have Glen. Yap don’t get to excited about Galaxy Polls.

But the real issue this coming week is Brit Exit. Another Tampa I am afraid.

@Glen but on the other side of the coin, if they have to be ‘pushed’ to vote because of a certain issue, then it is probably a fair assumption to say that the issue is not likely as profound as you think. After all, if it was, then would they not vote accordingly without being pushed?

The Galaxy polls are in line most other polls we’ve seen (barring the last aberrations). Labor could of course pull an upset and win in a lot of the 50/50 seats, definitely possible. However atm, the odds are favoring the other side.

W of S
The problem with the Galaxy poll, is that they ascribed a 10% vote to One Nation. IMV this is difficult to accept.

However it seems Dobell is still in play.

@Winediamond that is true. Although IMV it is far more believable than the union-commissioned polls which had Labor up by much more here.

In 1998 One Nation got 9.5% here so it is not *that* unbelievable. However, with that being said, that was at the height of their popularity in comparison to now, many years after their decline.

Nevertheless, I feel the result here will be tantalisingly close, with or without a big One Nation vote.

Wreathy – I wasn’t commenting at all about the validity of push polls, etc, I was explaining why “who asked for the poll” can influence the results of the poll. Having not heard what the ReachTel poll asked, or in what order, I have no idea whether the result is legitimate, and the Gonsky-related part is accurately capturing mood, or if the result is skewed by the poll question order, and the Gonsky-related part is a push poll type effect.

I do like how you try to turn a fact-based comment into politics, though.

@Glen well the knives are out tonight! I wasn’t trying to turn it into politics, you completely misunderstood me. Rather, I was playing devil’s advocate to point out some dangers of push polling. You explained how push polling works and I then proceeded to explain some of its dangers, in no way politically-motivated. No need to get personal.

I do like how you try to try to insult me when I was simply providing an alternative viewpoint.

I wasn’t explaining how push polling works, I was explaining how a poll can be influenced by the person/group who commissions it. Push polling was mentioned as an extreme example of it – where it’s intentional, and designed to not just influence the poll results, but public opinion itself.

And don’t play innocent – your choice of wording made clear that you were talking about the Teachers’ Union and that particular poll. For example, “not likely as profound as you think” – note the “you”. You then brought up other polls and implied that those results are more believable. Thereby directly implying that the Teachers’ Union’s ReachTel poll is a push poll.

That’s why I accused you of making it into politics.

The Teachers Federation poll is not a push poll. They have published the question and it’s clearly question 1 of their survey.

@Glen You read far too much into my choice of words. Sure, I used the word ‘you’ but ‘one’ could just have easily worked there too. Looking back, it probably does seem like I was putting words into your mouth, but I was really only trying to issue a general observation. Construe that as malicious if you so wish, I really don’t care.

Now you put words into my mouth: I NEVER said the other polls were more reliable. EVER. I said that this set of polls were outliers. They could be just as accurate, but I was merely pointing out that they contradicted many earlier polls. Whatever the cause of their difference, I never mentioned at all. Isn’t a direct implication a bit of a contradiction anyway? If my words were that direct and pointed, would they not be more like a statement?

Don’t you think if I wanted to play politics I would have just said: ‘the poll is a push poll’ rather than cleverly disguising it and going through this whole kerfuffle with you? You think I want to argue late at night over the Internet???

Anyway, believe what you want, but that’s not what I meant. TBH IDC what you really think – just trying to set the record straight. Period.

Now that I’ve said my peace, I’m going to move on.

@JH what makes you think that the Brexit will be another Tampa? Is it its attachment to the immigration issue?

My prediction: With the Craig Thomson saga in the history books, plus with the redistribution and corruption amongst former state MLAs for the area, Labor are slightly favoured to gain this.

W of S
IMV we are broadly in agreement here.

My gut is beginning to give me a feeling about the election in general. Dobell is a good case in point.

After 7 weeks the vote here has stubbornly refused to budge. This is pretty much the story with most of the marginals.

The significance is that both sides (but far more critically labor ) have failed to “cut through” in any great way. IMV the 60 % of voters on polling day will therefore end up voting far more conservatively than prior indications. IOW faced with little real choice they will take the “safe” option, & return the govt.

Consequently this will lead to a very underwhelming result for BS in the end….

Governments need to listen to the people and be a government for all people. Labor or Liberal are not listening. Is anyone thinking about the future of employment. We hear the Liberal Party talk about innovation and jobs but from everything that I have read there will be a huge reduction in jobs in the next 10 years because of technology. What will government do for retired people who have had their income which they thought would be enough to live on now be nowhere near enough. What about our young people that wish to buy a house. Should future governments be looking at other strategies to address the fact that maybe there will be not enough full time work and more people will be working part time or have no work.