LNP 6.9%
Incumbent MP
Peter Dutton, since 2001.
Geography
Dickson covers the north-western suburbs of Brisbane and adjoining rural areas. It covers most of the former Pine Rivers Shire, now included in the Moreton Bay Council. Suburbs include Ferny Hills, Albany Creek, Strathpine, Petrie and Kallangur. Further west it includes areas such as Dayboro, Mount Samson and Samford Village.
Dickson has often been considered a typical ‘mortgage belt’ seat and is also characterised by primarily being comprised of urban/bushland interface suburbs.
History
Dickson was created for the 1993 election, though it was not filled until a supplementary election a month after the general election following the death of an independent candidate during the campaign. It was won for the ALP by Michael Lavarch, who transferred to the seat from Fisher, which he had represented since 1987, defeating the Liberal candidate, future Queensland state Liberal Party leader Dr Bruce Flegg.
Lavarch served as Attorney-General in the Keating government, but was defeated in the 1996 landslide by Liberal Tony Smith.
Smith lost the Liberal endorsement for the 1998 election and recontested the seat as an Independent. A leakage of preferences from his 9% primary vote presumably assisted the narrow, 176-vote victory by ALP star recruit, former Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot.
Kernot was defeated in 2001 by the Liberals’ Peter Dutton, who has held the seat ever since, serving as a minister during the Howard government’s last term. In 2007 an 8.8% swing to the ALP saw Dutton hold the seat by just 217 votes. Dutton strengthened his hold on Dickson in 2010 with a 5.9% swing, and gained a further 1.6% swing in 2013. Dutton has served as a senior cabinet minister since the 2013 federal election, first serving in Health, and now serving as Immigration Minister.
Candidates
- Doug Nicholson (Liberal Democrats)
- Thor Prohaska (Independent)
- Linda Lavarch (Labor)
- Michael Berkman (Greens)
- Ray Hutchinson (Family First)
- Peter Dutton (Liberal National)
Assessment
The LNP’s 6.9% margin is not something that can be easily overturned, but if there is a large swing to Labor, Peter Dutton may be in trouble.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Dutton | Liberal National | 41,163 | 48.0 | -1.0 |
| Michael Gilliver | Labor | 26,848 | 31.3 | -2.2 |
| Mark Jonathon Taverner | Palmer United Party | 8,390 | 9.8 | +9.8 |
| Tyrone D’Lisle | Greens | 5,507 | 6.4 | -4.5 |
| Jim Cornwell | Katter’s Australian Party | 1,697 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
| Michael Mcdowell | Family First | 1,542 | 1.8 | -1.1 |
| Geoffrey Taylor | Rise Up Australia | 585 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Informal | 3,819 | 4.5 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Dutton | Liberal National | 48,631 | 56.7 | +1.6 |
| Michael Gilliver | Labor | 37,101 | 43.3 | -1.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas. Most of the population lies on the urban fringe along the eastern edge of the seat. These booths have been split between north-east and south-east. The remaining booths have been grouped as ‘west’.
The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 51% in the north-east to 62.5% in the west.
The Palmer United Party vote ranged from 7.3% in the west to 12.8% in the north-east. The Greens vote ranged from 5% in the north-east to 12% in the west.
| Voter group | PUP % | GRN % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-East | 12.8 | 4.9 | 50.8 | 27,401 | 32.0 |
| South-East | 8.3 | 7.2 | 59.3 | 23,464 | 27.4 |
| West | 7.3 | 11.9 | 62.5 | 7,002 | 8.2 |
| Other votes | 8.7 | 5.9 | 59.0 | 27,865 | 32.5 |
The numbers don’t seem to add up here.
What numbers?
The selection of Linda Lavarch had me looking up how old she is, given she retired from state politics in 2009. According to wikipedia, she’s 57; not especially old. Her ex-husband Michael is even younger at 54. That means Michael Lavarch was only 31 when he became attorney-general. His political career came to an abrupt halt at 34.
Lavarch sounds like a good, high-profile choice. Although I do think Dutton will be difficult to dislodge here. I was absolutely sure he was going to pay in 2010 for attempting to move seats but he had no trouble in the end.
W of S
Dutton’s main game is simply to keep bashing the ALP on border protection, & security.
Their biggest vulnerability IMV. Amusingly the former copper in him came out yesterday in an interview with Chris Kenny ( Viewpoint Sky ) !!!.
Dutton proudly announced that had cancelled more visa’s than any other immigration minister !!!
I’D like to see someone try having a go at him over that !!!!
The pre selection of Linda Lavarch definitely brings this seat into play for me. She’ll have good name recognition and respect in the seat, plus Dutton’s performance as a B-grade minister in an unpopular portfolio (as immigration is for almost anyone) will hurt his chances.
@Macca-GC I agree wholly with your assessment. On the other side of the coin though (playing Devil’s advocate IK) the high-profile preselection of Cheryl Kernot back in 1998 only just, and I do mean just, delivered the ALP the seat. Is Lavarch really able to come anywhere near that kind name recognition?
Dutton’s still here for two reasons:
1. The redistribution prior to 2007 added the politically conservative shire of Esk. This was a source of objections at the time, Esk shire being rural in character and separated from the rest of the seat by the D’Aguilar Range. It also split Esk shire from Kilcoy shire – the two would later be merged to form the Somerset Region. This made all the difference in a contest decided by just over 200 votes. This fortuitous arrangement was undone in the subsequent redistribution, making Dickson a notional Labor seat. Which brings me to the next point…
2. Winning Dickson and other suburban marginals like it was considered a hopeless task for the Liberals with Rudd at the height of his popularity in 2009-10. Dutton famously failed in an attempt to switch the safe Gold Coast seat of McPherson. (No doubt this sense of dread was why the Liberals preselected a child in next door Longman.) But then of course the events of 23-24 June happened, and the 2010 election was instantly transformed from a would-be landslide to a eventual cliffhanger.
They used to talk about the curse of Dickson; its first three members all being defeated after one term. Peter Dutton, on the other hand, has been blessed.
@WoS I think the Lavarch name will carry reasonably good recognition, particularly in Petrie and Strathpine.
I think Labor will take a big chunk of the PUP primary vote (which was split almost 50/50 between ALP & LNP in 2013).
The part of the electorate which will be decisive is the south east. Here you’re overlapping with the state seat of Ferny Grove (which swung back to the ALP in 2015). If the LNP can defend there, they’ll be able to hold on, but this is also where the ALP needs to be targeting.
I’ve just attempted to match up Dickson-2013 booths with Qld-2013 booths. The swing to the ALP is about 10%.
Even with significant mitigation from postals and prepolls, I think Dickson is definitely in play.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7243561/Elections-politics-etc/Dickson-attempt-2013-vs-2015.xlsx
SMH article reports labor internals having Dutton ahead by only 51/49, given what a joke he has become in the last three years hard to see this being a seat that libs wouldn’t sweat on
Nice work Alex. It would be a very similar story in Longman too.
Yeah great work. Dickson and Longman do stand out as divisions with big swings in the state elections. Would be interesting to see the results of the regional districts too….
I’d love to see someone have a crack at extrapolating federal boundaries to state results, but it would take time so I dunno who would do it.
All during the Howard era, the Liberals held seats like Dickson, Longman, Petrie, Forde, Blair and Moreton, despite Labor racking up thumping majorities in the corresponding state seats. If state votes in Dickson has been replicated federally, Cheryl Kernot would probably be running for her third term as Prime Minister by now.
Dutton withstood the 2007 Ruddslide (albeit on slightly safer boundaries), and his electors even forgave him for trying to scurry off to a safer seat. Unless there’s a real implosion in the Liberal campaign, I don’t think he will lose.
Of course, but what state boundaries do suggest is that these are the parts of Queensland that could swing big. It didn’t work during the Howard era as Labor polled 10 points worse or so federally than state.
ALex
One would not think Dickson was in play by looking at activity on the ground..
Compared to adjoining electorates Dickson campaigning is dead.
ALP are behaving like it is unwinnable and LIbs as if it is unlosable.
North-side News shows A LNP Dutton sign having being defaced with extremist views about Dutton running concentration camps but this is clearly the work of extremists well to the Left of ALP and probably to the left of the Greens on this issue See:
http://www.couriermail.com.au/questnews/north
It re-enforces what I wrote in Longman Comment yesterday about major parties relying on paid advertising in part because their membership is too lazy to campaign.
Fascinating. Having said that, my points of comparison for ‘the campaign is on in Dickson’ are Lilley and Ryan… you could drive through either of those and see no signage at all! Brisbane is pretty dead too.
Alex
My comment about a week ago in Longman said much the same as you have said about Dickson and Ryan.
This Mornings “The Australian” shows how significant both Major leaders rank Dickson. Neither of them have visited Dickson. I therefore put Dickson firmly in the Liberal camp.
Overall my prediction before the campaign was a very narrow Coalition win. In last week I changed my mind but am changing moving back to original position. One thing is for sure is that neither of them will have control of Senate. Based on House of Reps figures in Newspoll yesterday I put the Senate at ALP 30 Coalition 31 Greens 6 and Conservative minors 9. Whoever is PM on 3 July will have to work with Senate like Julia Gillard did or they will become like Whitlam. In effect this result is going to be another 1974 with the potential of 1975 just down the track .
My prediction is that Turnbull will not be leader of Liberal Party in a month and a half’s time. HE clearly has shown he is not the rioght person to negotiate with a hostile Senate or Cross bench.
The Senate election is more important than the House of Reps at this stage. Journalists (especially TV reporters ) hate this because they can not turn it into a Duopoly Punch and Judy show.
Ben
Without complying with the requirement not to duplicate comments it is often difficult to determine where to put a comment that covers multiple Divisions.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au
Alex
My comment about a week ago in Longman said much the same as you have said about Dickson and Ryan.
This Mornings “The Australian” shows how significant both Major leaders rank Dickson. Neither of them have visited Dickson. I therefore put Dickson firmly in the Liberal camp.
Overall my prediction before the campaign was a very narrow Coalition win. In last week I changed my mind but am changing moving back to original position. One thing is for sure is that neither of them will have control of Senate. Based on House of Reps figures in Newspoll yesterday I put the Senate at ALP 30 Coalition 31 Greens 6 and Conservative minors 9. Whoever is PM on 3 July will have to work with Senate like Julia Gillard did or they will become like Whitlam. In effect this result is going to be another 1974 with the potential of 1975 just down the track .
My prediction is that Turnbull will not be leader of Liberal Party in a month and a half’s time. HE clearly has shown he is not the rioght person to negotiate with a hostile Senate or Cross bench.
The Senate election is more important than the House of Reps at this stage. Journalists (especially TV reporters ) hate this because they can not turn it into a Duopoly Punch and Judy show.
Ben
Without complying with the requirement not to duplicate comments it is often difficult to determine where to put a comment that covers multiple Divisions.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au
Extremely easy Liberal retain. Absolutely nothing to see here. Labor are wasting their time in Qld.
Well Peter Dutton, god bless him, has been on radio this morning saying that he is under siege from bikies in a coordinated effort to unseat him. Shock horror!
So how many unsavoury looking Harley riders have been on the prowl in Dickson today?
Although this has the same margin as Longman, the underlying margin here would have to be at least a couple of points stronger for the Libs. I think Longman is competitive and could be a suprise boilover, whereas this will be in the “reasonably close, but never a realistic prospect”, category. If the ALP couldn’t win here in 2007, I can’t see them getting it now.
While Dutton is surely no vote winner, people in the area must also be thoroughly sick of the Lavarches by now?
It’s been about two decades since Michael Lavarch and one decade since Linda Lavarch last held a seat in the area, and to my knowledge, neither of them have done anything politically noteworthy since. In both instances, that’s about three sitting members ago. I’m not sure how this would result in voters “being thoroughly sick of them” — what is there to be sick of at this point?
As for 2007, I contend that Dutton got lucky with the redistributions — see David Walsh’s comment on May 10th.
@Alex J but on the other side of the coin too, it has been a while since they have been active politically – will this cancel out any potential extra votes they might have gotten?
@Wreathy Of course.
Also general note for everybody — the Lavarches divorced quite some time ago; it *really* doesn’t make sense to speak of ‘them’.
So was Dutton’s bikie comment just election speak then?
I am hearing the gap is narrowing on this one as well, but not enough for Lab to win at this stage.
My prediction: Likely LNP hold.
Peter Dutton is most likely to hold on from postals which is a shame. But this seat was alot closer then expected. Malcolm Turnbull was dominant in inner city Brisbane for his incumbent Mp’s, but the regions and outer suburbs were not as receptive to him.
Dutton’s currently holding on just from ordinary votes.
Handed out yesterday at Ferny Hills North (I’ll leave it as an exercise for the reader to pore over booth data and figure out who for). No visible ground game for the LDP. At least Prohaska put a laminated A4 sign on the fence.
So the bikies were not quite the threat that Peter led us to believe?
PNW, yes 2016 does seem to be a re-aligning election of sorts, with people voting more by class and less by ideology. The “Howard battlers” in the outer suburbs all swung strongly to Labor, while the middle-class small-l Liberals in the inner suburban marginals lined up behind Turnbull.