Dawson – Australia 2016

LNP 7.6%

Incumbent MP
George Christensen, since 2010.

Geography
Central and North Queensland coast. Dawson covers the Queensland coast from Mackay in the south to the outskirts of Townsville in the north. The seat covers the coastal areas, but not the inland areas, of Burdekin and Whitsunday local government areas, as well as parts of Townsville and Mackay LGAs.

History
Dawson was created in 1949 when the House of Representatives was expanded. The seat was first won by the Country Party’s Charles Davidson. Davidson had previously won the neighbouring seat of Capricornia in 1946 for the Liberal Party, defeating Frank Forde, who had served as the ALP’s Minister for the Army since 1941, serving as Prime Minister for one week in 1945 following the death of John Curtin.

Davidson served as a federal minister from 1956 until his retirement at the 1963 election. George Shaw succeeded Davidson as Country Party member in 1963, but died in early 1966 without ever facing re-election.

Rex Patterson (ALP) won the seat at the 1966 by-election. Patterson served as a minister in the Whitlam government from 1972 to 1975, and Patterson lost his seat at the election following the dismissal of the Whitlam government in 1975.

The seat was won in 1975 by Ray Braithwaite of the National Country Party. Braithwaite served as a backbencher for 21 years, retiring at the 1996 election.

Braithwaite was succeeded by De-Anne Kelly, also a National. Kelly was made a Parliamentary Secretary in October 2003, and was promoted to the junior ministry following the 2004 election. She was demoted back to a Parliamentary Secretary position in January 2006.

Kelly lost the seat at the 2007 election in a shock upset when a 13% swing to the ALP overturned Kelly’s 10% margin and gave the seat to Mackay City Councillor James Bidgood. Bidgood didn’t run for re-election in 2010, and a 5% swing back to the Liberal National Party saw George Christensen win the seat. Christensen was re-elected in 2013.

Candidates

Assessment
The LNP could be in danger in Dawson if there is a landslide Labor victory.

Polls

  • 50-50 – Reachtel commissioned by GetUp, 7 June 2016

2013 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
George Christensen Liberal National 40,507 46.2 +0.5
Bronwyn Taha Labor 26,030 29.7 -10.3
Ian Ferguson Palmer United Party 8,777 10.0 +10.0
Justin Englert Katter’s Australian Party 5,905 6.7 +6.7
Jonathon Dykyj Greens 4,396 5.0 -2.7
Lindsay Temple Family First 1,663 1.9 -3.0
Andrew Harris Citizens Electoral Council 345 0.4 -1.2
Informal 4,463 5.1

2013 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
George Christensen Liberal National 50,451 57.6 +5.2
Bronwyn Taha Labor 37,172 42.4 -5.2
Polling places in Dawson at the 2013 federal election. Burdekin in green, Mackay Rural in red, Mackay Urban in blue, Townsville in orange, Whitsunday in yellow. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Dawson at the 2013 federal election. Burdekin in green, Mackay Rural in red, Mackay Urban in blue, Townsville in orange, Whitsunday in yellow. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into five areas. Dawson covers parts of four local government areas. Polling places in Townsville, Burdekin and Whitsunday have been grouped according to council area. About half of voters live in Mackay Regional Council area. These booths are split between those in the Mackay urban area and those in the remainder of the region.

The Liberal National Party won a majority of the vote in all five areas, ranging from 52.6% in Mackay Urban to 65.9% in Burdekin.

The Palmer United Party came third, with a vote ranging from 9.2% in Townsville and 11.2% in Burdekin.

Voter group PUP % LNP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Mackay Urban 9.8 52.6 23,351 26.6
Townsville 9.2 59.0 9,648 11.0
Whitsunday 10.8 56.7 9,153 10.4
Mackay Rural 10.4 59.1 8,943 10.2
Burdekin 11.2 65.9 7,400 8.4
Other votes 9.7 58.8 29,128 33.2
Two-party-preferred votes in Dawson at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Dawson at the 2013 federal election.
Palmer United Party primary votes in Dawson at the 2013 federal election.
Palmer United Party primary votes in Dawson at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Mackay at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Mackay at the 2013 federal election.
Palmer United Party primary votes in Mackay at the 2013 federal election.
Palmer United Party primary votes in Mackay at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in parts of Dawson near Townsville at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in parts of Dawson near Townsville at the 2013 federal election.
Palmer United Party primary votes in parts of Dawson near Townsville at the 2013 federal election.
Palmer United Party primary votes in parts of Dawson near Townsville at the 2013 federal election.

18 COMMENTS

  1. Considering the size of swings here in the past, and the reports the seat may be targeted by various progressive groups keen to knock off Christensen, there’s presumably an outside chance this is in play. Margin seems too big but it’d be interesting if there’s any polling showing it might be in play.

  2. Nick C
    De Anne Kelly managed to lose this seat whilst she had a 10% margin !!. Something of a record. However we are talking about Nth Queenslanders. So Christensen is probably very safe being reactionary, possibly quite mad !!!

  3. As much as I would like to see the truly hateful Christensen get booted out, I don’t expect it to happen

  5. With Bernardi, Big George is the person I truly loath in our parliament. Not only do I think he’s no chance of losing, I actually think there could be primary swing to him. Nothing would give me greater pleasure than to see him lose but he won’t. Labor shouldn’t even waste their time anywhere north of Capricornia in Qld. This will be called within first hour of counting.

  6. Even in the seats they’re no chance to win, it’s still worth the major parties flying the flag a bit just for the Senate votes.

  8. Perhaps, but remember that there’s both 6-year and 3-year seats up for grabs here so a good Senate showing is still important if you’re playing the long game.

  9. Mackay has gone from bustling provincial city to a virtual ghost town since the last election. Tens of thousands of jobs have disappeared, small businesses have collapsed, contractors have no work and the significant PUP vote (much of which seems to have been lost from Labor) is looking for somewhere to go.
    This seat is more volatile and unpredictable than is otherwise suggested so not-at-all-gorgeous George cannot count his chickens, they may turn out to be turkeys.

  10. For all George’s talk about fighting for local jobs, Mackay is going downhill. There have been very few new businesses in town and for every one that does open, another one closes. I’m seeing it happen nearly every week. George’s only solution seems to be the Adani coal mine, which anybody with half a brain knows is not going to happen, at least within the next decade. A lot of people here have woken up to the fact that his talk is nothing but hot air. Many are also opposed to his stance on Safe Schools and gay marriage, climate change and associated subjects. Plus, we only have a very small Muslim community here and his rants are not doing him any favours in that area, as well. You don’t see any member of that section of our community showing up in the local courts for causing trouble, but George thinks they’re all plotting to kill us in our sleep. It may seem that he’s unbeatable, but that kind of arrogant assumption could yet be his undoing. While, on the surface, it looks like he has a lot of support, many of his “fans”, who dote on his every word, don’t actually live in the Dawson electorate. Add in the fact that, when his father ran for a seat at the recent council elections, he couldn’t garner more than 3% of the votes, in spite of George exhorting everyone to vote for his dad, suggesting that Mackay, at least, it a bit sceptical of the Christensen brand these days. I think the old adage of not counting chickens before they’re hatched could apply here.

  11. Like other regional Queensland seats I expect a large third party vote. Katter will improve in Dawson by taking some Palmer Vote and disgruntled LNP. I also think the Lazarus candidate will do ok in the Mackay booths due to his community roots. I think Katter and Lazarus get somewhere between 20% and 30% of the vote. Where Katter preferences will be vital.

  13. I think this one might be a smokey. Figures I am hearing is that a swing is on but not enough to unseat George at present. Feedback indicates a lot of hostility toward George’s take on most things, that plus the state of the local economy. Interesting days ahead.

  14. I think George will win unfortunately but I reckon he’d be gone if Labor were headed for a big election win – which they aren’t.

  15. My prediction: Seconding Fell the Bern, George Christensen, one of the LNP’s firebrand MPs (he has a few Geert Wilders-esque traits), will likely hold, unless Labor are going for a big nationwide win.

  16. I suspect George Christensen might not be hugely popular with his electorate.
    Just as the LNP is protected in Leichardt, Herbert and Capricornia with strong members and media markets with a one-town focus, this local focus can cut both ways. If (and its only an if because I have no local knowledge) Christensen does not come across well, his deficiencies will be magnified for all to see and focus on. In addition to other factors mentioned above, that could be enough to do him in.
    I’d keep an eye on this one, after Capricornia I think its the ALP’s best hope in regional Qld.

  17. How the Katter and Lazarus candidates perform and their preferences will decide this. I have this as one to watch and if I had to make a call I would suggest Labor wins here.

  18. QObserver – I think the Katter and Lazarus candidates will do alright, but I can’t see them out-performing their combined 2013 result.

    My prediction: LNP Hold on reduced margin (3-5% swing to ALP).

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