NAT 13.2%
Incumbent MP
Luke Hartsuyker, since 2001.
Geography
Cowper lies on the mid-north coast of New South Wales, stretching from Port Macquarie to Coffs Habrour. The seat covers the towns of Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie, South West Rocks, Nambucca Heads, Bellingen and Kempsey.
Redistribution
Cowper shifted south, gaining Port Macquarie, Crescent Head and surrounding areas from Lyne, and losing areas north of Coffs Harbour to Page, including Woolgoolga, Corindi Beach and Maclean. These changes increased the Nationals margin from 11.7% to 13.2%.
History
Cowper was an original federation seat, and has almost always been held by conservative parties, with the Country/National Party holding it for all but two years since 1919.
The seat was first held by Francis Clarke of the Protectionist Party, who was defeated by Free Trader Henry Lee in 1903. Lee was defeated by John Thomson in 1906. Thomson first held the seat for the Protectionist Party and held the seat for successive non-Labor parties for the next 13 years.
In 1919, Thomson, then representing the Nationalists, was defeated by Earle Page, who joined the Country Party the next year. Page held the seat for over 40 years.
Page became Country Party leader in 1921 and led the party into government for the first time in 1922, forcing the senior Nationalists to drop Billy Hughes as Prime Minister. He served as Treasurer in the Bruce government until 1929. He also served as a minister in the second and third terms of the Lyons government, and served as acting Prime Minister for three weeks upon Lyons’ death.
Page refused to serve in a government led by Lyons’ deputy Robert Menzies, but the Country Party rebelled and replaced Page with a new leader. Page returned to government in 1940 as a minister, and again served as a minister from 1949 to 1956. Page continued to serve in Parliament until the 1961 election. At that election, he was too ill to campaign and fell into a coma before the election. In a surprise upset, Page was defeat by the ALP’s Frank McGuren, and he died days later.
McGuren only held the seat for one term, which was the only term the ALP has ever held Cowper. He was defeated in 1963 by the Country Party’s Ian Robinson. Robinson transferred to the new seat of Page in 1984, and Garry Nehl won Cowper for the Nationals.
Nehl retired in 2001, and was succeeded by Luke Hartsuyker. Hartsuyker has won re-election four times. His margin was cut to 1.2% in 2007, but he’s gained a swing of over 10% over the last two elections.
Candidates
- Wayne Lawrence (Christian Democratic Party)
- Michael Gough (Citizens Electoral Council)
- Carol Vernon (Greens)
- Damian Wood (Labor)
- Rob Oakeshott (Independent)
- Luke Hartsuyker (Nationals)
- John Arkan (Independent)
Assessment
Cowper is normally a safe Nationals seat. The intervention of former independent Lyne MP Rob Oakeshott makes the race more interesting. While Oakeshott had strong support in Port Macquarie, he’s never contested an election in Coffs Harbour, the largest part of the election.
Polls
- 39.4% to Nationals, 24.8% Oakeshott, 13.2% Labor, 8.2% Greens – Reachtel commissioned by GetUp, 13 June 2016
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Luke Hartsuyker | Nationals | 45,820 | 53.1 | +2.3 | 53.6 |
| Alfredo Navarro | Labor | 21,910 | 25.4 | -2.5 | 23.7 |
| Carol Vernon | Greens | 10,685 | 12.4 | +3.3 | 10.7 |
| Rod Jeanneret | Palmer United Party | 5,739 | 6.6 | +6.6 | 6.1 |
| Bethany McAlpine | Christian Democratic Party | 2,224 | 2.6 | +0.2 | 2.5 |
| Others | 3.3 | ||||
| Informal | 4,813 | 5.6 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Luke Hartsuyker | Nationals | 53,303 | 61.7 | +2.4 | 63.2 |
| Alfredo Navarro | Labor | 33,075 | 38.3 | -2.4 | 36.8 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided between the five local government areas: Bellingen, Coffs Harbour, Kempsey, Nambucca and Port Macquarie.
The Nationals won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all five areas. They won over 60% in four areas, ranging from 61.1% in Coffs Harbour to 65% in Port Macquarie.
The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 6.8% in Port Macquarie to 26% in Bellingen.
| Voter group | GRN % | NAT 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Coffs Harbour | 11.8 | 61.1 | 22,235 | 22.9 |
| Port Macquarie | 6.8 | 65.0 | 17,840 | 18.4 |
| Kempsey | 8.3 | 64.3 | 10,262 | 10.6 |
| Nambucca | 13.0 | 63.1 | 8,206 | 8.4 |
| Bellingen | 26.1 | 50.7 | 6,619 | 6.8 |
| Other votes | 9.2 | 65.1 | 31,975 | 32.9 |
This seat now has the highest number of voters in NSW. It will remain massively over quota for the next 7 years. That means the residents here will be relatively under represented.
Well done to the AEC, for ignoring all the hundreds of protests about putting Coff’s Harbour, with Port Macquarie. A bad result all round, by any measurement.
As we all know this could , & should have been avoided by pushing Page across the Great Divide.
I always disagreed with the proposals to push Page across the Great Divide – try driving the Gwydir highway between Grafton and Glen Innes sometime, it’s a long and lonely road (although quite spectacular scenery). The links both up on the tablelands and down on the coast are far stronger north-south.
kme
i didn’t say it was a great idea. Just not as bad as putting Coffs & Port together. Which BTW is completely unsustainable, as Port is growing exponentially .
Coffs Harbour councillor John Arkan, who finished 3rd as an independent candidate in 2010, then was re-elected to council as a Liberal in 2012, has emerged as a late starter here http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-09/sikh-councillor-john-arkan-confirmed-as-federal-candidate/7496922
The Greens poll quite well in some areas around here, more then I thought.
Would it be advantageous to change the Nats numbers from Green to blue on the maps as to make it easier to distinguish the difference between the Greens and Nats, similar to the maps for Ballina and Lismore during the state election.
It has been confirmed that Oakeshott will contest Cowper. I thought we would be rid of this fool by now.
That was out of the blue, surely he hasn’t had enough time to make a significant difference to voters, on the other hands Hartsuyker isn’t held in high regard, he should come in second but the Nats will win easily.
@L96 I thought so too, although he says he has been weighing up the possibility for some time.
Poll in the guardian today indicates that Cowper is now 50/50 2PP between the Nats and Oakeshott. Truly an astounding result given his short time in the campaign. This seat is definitely now on the endangered list, along with a few others.
Yes, I’m shocked to be honest. Actually, there was no 2PP given in the poll. The 50/50 is Oakeshotts suggestion/spruiking….Name recognition counts given that he only announced last Friday.
A GetUp commissioned ReachTel, Nats on 39.4%, Oak 24.8%, ALP 13.2%, Grn 8.2%, CD 3.6% & 6.9% undecided with just under half leaning towards the sitting member.
even if oakeshott polled 10 to 15 % would make the seat uncertain
Oakeshott appears to be working the electorate very well. I know several Nats in the area who are in disbelief. If Oakshott manage’s to snag this seat it will be on the back of Nat indifference.
More “internal polling” that you can take with a grain of salt if you want to. National party polling allegedly has Oakeshott on “over 20%” of the vote.
It is actually 27% Mark. My Nat mate spilt the beans. Nats have brought in the Mad Monk to sandbag. More interesting by the day!
MM, why a grain of salt? This is Nationals own polling reported in The Australian today. Either they are inflating the 20% to scare their base or it has some basis that they have genuine concerns…..
Imagine this scenario…Nats lose Page, Cowper & New England! Though at this stage only Page seems a possible loss
@Yappo because seat polls are notoriously inaccurate.
Yappo, don’t mind me. It was just a throwaway comment about how much confusing, contradictory, and downright silly-looking seat polling has been released recently.
That’s an unsightful, lszy response. Some yes but others not. We really are not in a position to judge this one without the details. Parties internal polling tends to be much better given they allocate resources based on their own polls. The issue of how they spin it pubically is another matter…..
This is funny, reportedly the Nats registered the .com.au domain too……
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/thefeed/article/2016/06/10/rob-oakeshott-announces-hes-standing-parliament-probably-should-have-bought-his
@Yappo well pardon me for replying. Next time, I’ll just let your comment fester like a rotting corpse.
Yappo take heart, Oakey is on track to take this seat in a shock result. Nats are in a real tizzy calling for more resources, which thus far, are not forthcoming. Luke simply never saw this one coming. Excellent well planned and executed strategy by Oakey.
All this talk of Oakeshott taking the seat is very exciting. I mean that in an entirely negative way.
Until it it clear whether he is merely cannibalising the ALP/ Green vote, or not, it is not convincing.
I find it inconceivable, that he could be forgiven ( so readily) for enabling the worst govt, in the nation’s history.
Well wine diamond I am at a loss as to how to cheer you up. Perhaps if Oakeshott does get up, you can gain a better perspective of the fickle nature of politics.
One of the hallmarks of an astute political warrior is to acknowledge the strength of one’s opponents and the deficiencies of our own. Oakeshott by any measure is a seasoned political warrior, professes to be a modest common person, and very astute in identifying the priorities of his constituency. Of course you may have a different view and I would be glad to read it.
Yes, I think Oakshott actually has a better chance than Tony Windsor. 1. Barnaby is a larrakin character who will appeal to a lot of people in his own right, unlike I would suspect, the member for Cowper. 2. Most of Cowper is new territory for Oakshott which could actually suit him as the electors won’t have as defined an opinion of him as those in Port Macquarie, which was the only part that was in his old electorate. The electors of New England, will also have fairly well defined opinions of Windsor, which will make it harder for him with those who already made up their mind against him during the Gillard term. I’m tipping Barnaby to hold in New England by about 3% 2PP and Oakshott to get up here.
Im hoping Oakshott puts the Nationals out in Cowper. I noticed that Luke has resorted to attack ads on the tv tonight, obviously worried. Based on what I’ve been reading from voters in Coffs Luke has been sitting back and taking his “safe seat” for granted whilst delivering next to nothing for Cowper.
This is an opportunity for the voters in Cowper to show a lazy politician what happens when you don’t deliver. Despite a minority being unhappy with Rob in Port they can’t deny he delivered whilst in office particularly for our base hospital. Then the non existent Gillespie and the local state national member tried to claim the credit, disgusting.
latest Reachtel poll has a 50-50 splt – Oakeshott may have a chance
https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-cowper-poll-23june2016
Oakshott gets 72.7% of prefs compared to 27.3% for Nats. One understands why the Nats wanted to leak their internal polling to the Oz.
This isn’t yet within the range I’m tracking, but this is an interesting seat. Oakeshott is improving in the odds according to Sportsbet, and I suspect it’ll get closer in the next few days (indeed, I’m going to predict that the odds on July 1 will be 1.87 each)
Coalition 1.40, Oakeshott 2.75
Hartsuyker is on every other tv ad up here at the moment and he also has an attack ad out on Oakeshott, he’s terrified and spending plenty of money to try and save his seat.
My prediction: Likely National hold, even with the return of former Lyne MP Rob Oakeshott.
When the PM calls, you know that they are nervous….. http://m.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-coalition-panics-at-possible-return-of-rob-oakeshott-in-seat-of-cowper-deploys-malcolm-turnbull-20160628-gptjdh.html
@Yappo IMV Cowper was always much more likely than New England to turn independent. Looking forward to a tantalisingly close result!
W of S
I’M more inclined to trust the political instincts of Mark Latham on this.
His prediction on Monday — 80 LNP
60 ALP
2 GREEN
8 MINOR & INDI
i would extrapolate that means he rates NXP as having as good a chance of getting 4 seats, as Oakeshott of winning.
It is interesting that he expects such a desultory result for labor in the end .
i would think NXT success more likely than Oakeshott
Or One Nation picks up a lower house seat…
Q Observer
Where might that be ??
Cowper will be a difficult seat to analyse on election night. Oakeshott has never run in this seat before, so there’s no basis for comparison as the booth results come in. His support is likely to very uneven; stronger at the Port Macquarie end and weaker at the Coffs Harbour end. But just how uneven is anyone’s guess.
Thus we’re probably going to need a sizeable number of booth results in before we have any idea where the contest stands. The AEC could complicate things further by doing a Nat-v-ALP indicative count. In which case, the result would have to be guessed at from primaries.
By contrast, New England should be more straightforward. There Windsor is known to the entire electorate. You’ve also got a Nat-v-Ind result in 2013, or Windsor’s last run in 2010, as the basis for comparison.
I think it will depend on how satisfied the voters in Coffs are with Luke Hartsuykers performance. From what I’ve read they have been waiting for a viable alternative and Rob Oakeshott is an independent who has been in office and understands how to get things delivered for his electorate. I hope it will at least be very close to send a message to lazy politicians who don’t fight for their electorate.
I mentioned that I expected this to move into the “tracking” zone, and it now has.
Coalition 1.50, Oakeshott 2.50
I’ll say it again – I expect it to be 1.87 each way by July 1st.
This will be my last updating of Sportsbet numbers, and… my prediction was on the money.
Oakeshott and Coalition both on 1.87
Spot on the money there, Glen.
It will certainly come down to preferences.
Its about time someone gave the Nationals a run for their money in this electorate!
Other than a few years in the 60s when it was held by Labor, Cowper has been a Nationals (Or Country Party as they were previously known) seat since 1919.
And its definitely an area with its problems, a change of government might be whats needed to get some improvement.
Even if Hartsuyker wins might give a bit of incentive to actually work for the votes next time. And marginal seats get more funding than safe seats so a bit of actual competition can only be good.
Bonham on the Cowper postcount, http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2016/07/2016-federal-election-postcount-cowper.html
Luke Hartsuyker may not impress in Canberra, but based on my knowledge of the Cowper campaign in 2001 and subsequent information from contacts in Coffs Harbour he does work hard locally and hasn’t taken the seat for granted. The ALP nearly won it in 2007, and Luke’s best results have been in 2010 and 2013, as he has become established. I think his final margin will be similar to 2007, maybe slightly better.