ALP 7.7%
Incumbent MP
Richard Marles, since 2007.
Geography
Geelong and surrounding areas. Corio covers most of the Geelong urban area and those parts of the City of Greater Geelong north of the centre of Geelong. The seat also stretches along the north coast of the Bellarine Peninsula.
History
The seat of Corio is an original federation seat. It was originally a marginal seat, switching between conservative parties and the ALP, but since the 1970s it has become a relatively safe Labor seat.
Corio was first won in 1901 by Richard Crouch, a Protectionist candidate and the youngest member of the first Parliament. He was re-elected in 1903 and 1906 before losing in 1910. He later returned at a much older age to hold the neighbouring seat of Corangamite for the ALP from 1929 to 1931.
Corio was won in 1910 by the ALP’s Alfred Ozanne. He lost in 1913 to Liberal candidate William Kendell, but won the seat back in 1914. Ozanne lost again in 1917.
The seat was won in 1917 by Nationalist candidate John Lister. He held the seat for the next decade, losing in 1929.
The seat of Corio was won by Labor candidate Arthur Lewis in 1929, but he only held it for one term before losing to the United Australia Party’s Richard Casey.
Casey joined the Lyons ministry in 1933, and became Treasurer in 1935. When Robert Menzies became Prime Minister in 1939, he saw Casey as a rival for the leadership, and moved him into a lesser role, before appointing him as Ambassador to the United States. Casey played a key role in cementing Australia’s alliance with the United States in the Second World War.
He returned to Parliament as Member for La Trobe in 1949, and served as a key minister in the Menzies government until his appointment as a member of the House of Lords in 1960. He also served as Governor-General from 1965 to 1969.
The 1940 Corio by-election was won by the ALP’s John Dedman. He was appointed to the ministry upon the formation of the Curtin Labor government in 1941, and served in a key role in the War Cabinet. He was particularly responsible for war production, post-war reconstruction and the creation of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). He lost Corio in 1949 to Liberal candidate Hubert Opperman.
Opperman had been a prominent Australian cyclist, and had rode in the Tour de France on a number of occasions. He served as a Cabinet minister from 1960 to late 1966, before leaving Parliament in 1967 to serve as High Commissioner to Malta.
The 1967 Corio by-election was won by the ALP’s Gordon Scholes. Scholes was elected Speaker of the House of Representatives in early 1975 after the resignation of his predecessor after a disagreement with the Whitlam government. Scholes served in the role for the remainder of the Whitlam government. He served as a minister in the Hawke government from its election in 1983 until 1987, and retired in 1993.
Corio was won in 1993 by Gavan O’Connor. He joined the Labor frontbench in 1998 and served on the role until 2007. In 2006 he was challenged for preselection by ACTU Assistant Secretary Richard Marles, who won. O’Connor ran as an independent for Corio in 2007, but polled a distant third.
After winning Corio in 2007, Marles served on the backbench until he was appointed as a Parliamentary Secretary in 2009. Marles served in a number of roles as a Parliamentary Secretary until he resigned from the role in March 2013 after supporting a campaign to see Kevin Rudd challenge for the Labor leadership, and then briefly served as Minister for Trade in the restored Rudd government in 2013. Marles has served as shadow minister for immigration since the 2013 election.
Candidates
- Richard Lange (Liberal)
- Sue Bull (Socialist Alliance)
- Richard Marles (Labor)
- Ash Puvimanasinghe (Rise Up Australia)
- Jeff Moran (Bullet Train For Australia)
- Jamie Overend (Animal Justice)
- Sarah Mansfield (Greens)
Assessment
Corio is a safe Labor seat.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Richard Marles | Labor | 39,267 | 43.5 | -7.4 |
| Peter Read | Liberal | 31,768 | 35.2 | +3.3 |
| Greg Lacey | Greens | 6,593 | 7.3 | -5.1 |
| Anthony John Harrington | Palmer United Party | 5,122 | 5.7 | +5.7 |
| Justine Deborah Martin | Sex Party | 2,492 | 2.8 | +2.8 |
| Stephanie Asher | Independent | 1,958 | 2.2 | +2.2 |
| Brendan Fenn | Family First | 1,461 | 1.6 | -1.9 |
| Sue Bull | Socialist Alliance | 679 | 0.8 | -0.4 |
| Patrick Atherton | Australian Christians | 549 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Yann Legrand | Rise Up Australia | 364 | 0.4 | +0.4 |
| Informal | 5,049 | 5.6 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Richard Marles | Labor | 52,117 | 57.8 | -5.7 |
| Peter Read | Liberal | 38,136 | 42.3 | +5.7 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. “East” covers the small number of booths scattered around the Bellarine peninsula. “North” covers the small number of booths in the northern parts of the seat, along with those on the northern edge of the Geelong urban area, including Corio and Norlane.
Labor’s two-party-preferred vote varied from 50.3% in the east to 66% in the north.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 56.3 | 17,493 | 19.4 |
| North | 65.9 | 15,445 | 17.1 |
| East | 50.3 | 14,709 | 16.3 |
| Central | 64.5 | 10,553 | 11.7 |
| Other votes | 55.8 | 32,053 | 35.5 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Corio at the 2013 federal election
My seat. Safe for Labor but a number of factors will give them a real shake.
The demographic make-up of this seat will change dramatically within the next decade now that manufacturing in Geelong is now pretty much dead, and development of the CBD will bring in university students and young people, while the older demographics in the central suburbs (marked in green dots on the map) of Geelong will eventually pass on and be replaced by younger people thanks to the relatively cheap house and rental prices in the area. The western suburbs will continue to gentrify. The northern suburbs will not budge for quite some time, while the Bellarine will always be relatively marginal but that is trending towards Labor now too.
In 10 years time, I can see this being very much in a similar vein to Melbourne Ports today: a genuine three way contest between the three main parties (Labor, Liberal, Greens), I can also see the Bellarine as a whole (including the parts currently within Corangamite) becoming its own electoral division in a future redistribution if the population density of the central Geelong suburbs increases.
Apparently the popular local mayor for Geelong is running as an independent. Everyone seems to rate him, so Marles could be in a lot of trouble.
PS: Obviously this will be retained by Labor at this upcoming election. My above comment addresses the long term prospects of this seat.
Those are some very bold predictions Matt. I should think 10 years is just too short a time scale to see the level of change you describe.
I doubt that clown Darryn Lyons will have much of an impact if he runs. He’ll score a minuscule amount of the vote which would go back to the major parties in the same proportion to which it came.
DW
So you don’t rate Lyons. That is a shame, it might have made things interesting. i don’t know enough to comment further.
I agree with DW….the seat will slowly gentrify, but around half the seat is still 70% Labor territory. It will take close to a generation to see a meaningful change in Corio, Norlane, and Whittington.
I also doubt whether it will turn into any sort of Greens target. What will probably happen is that Geelong continues to get drawn into the Melbourne orbit and become more like an outer suburban Labor vs Liberal marginal. But we’re talking long term here.
should the Belleraine area be in Corangamite?
MQ, the Bellarine should be united “somewhere”….exactly where it a tricky question.
Traditionally, Corio has been stagnant and Corangamite fast growing, so if you put the Bellarine into Corangamite, then Corio would need to jump Little River to gain electors. I suggested basically that last time, but it’s something that tends to get objected to.
Possibly you could do the opposite put more of the peninsula in Corio, by using the Barwon River. That would be a neat boundary, but I don’t think the numbers would fit.
MM,
AEC seems to stick to the statistical division of Melbourne and the regional Victoria quite rigidly. It isn’t just the Corio/Lalor boundary that follows this division, Gorton/Ballarat does as well, Casey crosses it in print only, the entirety of its inhabited area (maybe bar a small hamlet) is within the Melbourne statistical area. Only Flinders, McEwen and McMillan cross this statistical boundary, these are essentially Melbourne’s pressure valves.
There’s a case for removing Flinders from Bass Coast and Cardinia so the La trobe/Mc Millan become the sole pressure valve in the south east and projections become more reliable. The case for McEwen being a pressure valve is self evident with the City of Hume.
For the south west there is a case for a pressure valve seat, but to convince the AEC I think you’d have to sell them on the overarching strategy, which contains a rationale for crossing over the statistical boundary are minimised and in alignment with Melbourne’s growth vectors and have flow on benefits for rural/regional seats.
I do think the AEC would be open to such a rational argument (after all the proposed boundaries for Lalor crossed the Little river and included Lara).
So I think the AEC is open to Corio/Lalor is capable of being one of those three valve boundaries. Reading most most of the 2010 submissions they made supporting arguments of including Lara in Lalor but none came with the “killer punch” needed to overcome the key objectors (if memory serves me the ALP was particularly opposed to this in its submission).
I sincerely hope Darryn Lyons runs and is absolutely thrashed. Paparazzi are absolute scum of the earth, bloody parasites. Anyway Marles will be returned, but I agree demographic change will make this more marginal with time
Geelong CBD is largely lifeless & won’t change much for foreseeable future. North is slowly changing but like western Melbourne which it resembles it will remain safe Labor. Victorian 2nd/3rd generation NESB seem to stick with Labor more than in Sydney. On Lyons Labor claimed their internal polling had him at 10% & this was a few months ago so I can’t see him being any kind of threat. On boundaries overall remember it’s south in Corangamite which is huge growth area, one day Colac will be removed which will tilt Corangamite towards Labor.