LIB 7.2%
Incumbent MP
Tony Smith, since 2001.
Geography
Eastern fringe of Melbourne. Casey covers most of Yarra Ranges Shire, along with eastern parts of the City of Maroondah. Major centres include Lilydale, Montrose, Mooroolbark, Seville, Yarra Junction, Healesville and large areas in the Yarra Ranges with small populations.
History
Casey was created for the 1969 election and has almost always been considered to be a marginal seat. Despite the slim margins, the Liberal Party has managed to hold onto the seat consistently since 1984, after an early period where the ALP managed to hold it during the Whitlam government and the Hawke government’s first term.
Casey was first won in 1969 by Peter Howson. Howson had been Member for Fawkner since 1955, and had served as Minister for Air from 1964 until John Gorton’s first cabinet reshuffle, when he was dropped. He returned to cabinet as Australia’s first Minister for the Environment in William McMahon’s cabinet in 1971, but lost his seat in 1972 to the ALP’s Race Mathews.
Mathews held Casey for both terms of the Whitlam government, losing the seat to Peter Falconer (LIB) in 1975. Mathews went on to hold the Victorian state seat of Oakleigh from 1979 until 1992, and served as a state minister from 1982 to 1988.
Peter Falconer was reelected in 1977 and 1980, but lost Casey to the ALP’s Peter Steedman in 1983. Steedman held the seat for one term, and lost to Liberal Bob Halverson in 1984.
The Liberal Party never lost Casey again, and Halverson went on to serve as Speaker of the House of Representatives in the first term of the Howard government until his retirement in 1998.
Casey was won in 1998 by Dr Michael Wooldridge, the Howard government’s Health Minister. Wooldridge had previously held Chisholm since 1987, moving to Casey in 1998. He held it for one term before retiring from politics in 2001.
The seat was won in 2001 by Tony Smith. Smith has been re-elected four times, and was elected Speaker of the House of Representatives in August 2015.
Candidates
- Elissa Sutherland (Greens)
- Kristin Bacon (Animal Justice)
- Hovig Melkonian (Labor)
- Peter Charleton (Independent)
- Tony Smith (Liberal)
- Angela Dorian (Rise Up Australia)
Assessment
Casey is reasonably safe Liberal seat and would only be vulnerable in the case of a large swing to Labor.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tony Smith | Liberal | 43,538 | 49.2 | +3.1 |
| Cathy Farrell | Labor | 24,651 | 27.9 | -8.7 |
| Steve Meacher | Greens | 9,641 | 10.9 | -1.3 |
| Milton Wilde | Palmer United Party | 4,413 | 5.0 | +5.0 |
| Gary Coombes | Family First | 2,370 | 2.7 | -2.1 |
| Jeanette Mcrae | Independent | 1,358 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| Mike Brown | Australian Christians | 1,126 | 1.3 | +1.3 |
| Jeffrey Leake | Country Alliance | 986 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| Paul Barbieri | Rise Up Australia | 446 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Informal | 4,291 | 4.9 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tony Smith | Liberal | 50,615 | 57.2 | +5.3 |
| Cathy Farrell | Labor | 37,914 | 42.8 | -5.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into five areas. Those booths in the heavily-populated southwestern corner of the seat have been divided into Central, West and South-West. The remaining booths have been divided between North and East.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all five areas. The Liberal margin was only six votes in the east, and in the rest of the seat the vote ranged from 53.4% in north to 58.5% in the west.
The Greens vote ranged from 9.2% in the west to 14% in the east and north.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-West | 10.4 | 55.3 | 19,125 | 21.6 |
| West | 9.2 | 58.5 | 14,553 | 16.4 |
| Central | 12.9 | 56.5 | 12,520 | 14.1 |
| East | 14.0 | 50.0 | 7,202 | 8.1 |
| North | 14.1 | 53.4 | 4,704 | 5.3 |
| Other votes | 10.0 | 60.3 | 30,425 | 34.4 |
Libs will hold this easily.
Another of those outer eastern seats (like Aston) that seems to have moved almost permanently into the Liberal column. There are some affluent areas around the back of Croydon and Chirnside Park, but I think the Liberal vote comes from being “whiter” and more religious than other parts of Melbourne.
Like a couple of other urban fringe seats, you can see the very strong increase in the Greens vote as you push up into the mountains.
I know most most attention has focused on abolishing Chisholm in the forthcoming redistribution as the seats east of the Yarra will be circa 85,000 voters short of a quota in 2018, but I’ve a suspicion that AEC will instead push this seat into Nullumbik shire and back towards Hurstbridge (where it originally started).
I think you’re right Sandbelter. McMillan and Flinders are both well over quota. With Gippsland only slightly below average, their collective surplus has nowhere else to go but to the eastern suburbs. That may well mean the retention of all of those seats. The rest of the numbers would be made up by dragging Casey westwards.
Thanks for the website Ben – great data analysis in the maps. First a declaration of inherent bias in my comments – my wife is the Greens candidate in this seat!
On the ground here though, there is a feeling of a shift away from the Coalition so perhaps Hovig can at least eat into the margin and possibly give him a run for his money.
And there is plenty of money being splashed around in this electorate – small amounts admittely but quite unusual for Casey historically. Maybe Tony is feeling the need to sure up his position.
Day 1 of pre-polling at Lilydale PPVC and three candidates present – Hovig, Elissa and Peter C. No appearance from Tony but not surprising especially given Coalition’s habit of candidates not turning up to community forums, etc!
Given HTV cards viewed (Coalition, Labor, Peter C and Greens) – Hovig will receive preferences from Peter C and Greens at No.3. Word is Animal Justice will preference Greens at No.2. Expect RUAP to preference Coalition although Tony has placed RUAP last and Peter C has preferenced RUAP at No.2 (deal maybe?). Maybe there are enough preferences directed to Hovig to make it interesting.
Anyway – will keep a watch on the site for interesting news!
My prediction: Easy Liberal hold.
G’day Everyone, I stood as the Independent candidate for Casey at this years election (2016) having read the comments l thought l would put in my two bobs worth.
During the early voting l did get a sense that the Libs were a little concerned and it had me thinking that maybe, just maybe the Labor Candidate (Hovig Melkonian) might be a chance of knocking Tony Smith off. But as many expected, it turned out to be a fairly comfortable win for Tony Smith (Liberal)
Myself, I knew l was never any hope of winning the seat, but having watched one too many press conferences with Malcolm Turnbull talking the usual spin and dribble (Which we seem to get from most politicians these days) l decided to have a crack.
Technically speaking l did begin my campaign in late January 2016, but having a bank account which was sick… very sick… I never really got my campaign to the level l had desired. With just 6 months to attract as many votes as possible, it was always an uphill battle, but that was not going to stop me from having a crack.
Long story short, I ended up with 3% of the vote which upon reflection was a terrific result, especially given the unfair playing field most of us Independents and minor parties face.
2016 was my first ever attempt at election, it was a real eye opener and a terrific learning experience which will be a positive thing when l stand again next election.
David Francis wrote a few words about preferences and l thought l would just clear up any speculation as to whether or not any deals were done between myself and RUAP… There were no deals done with anyone, instead l decided to start at 6 and work my way backwards from there. Policies played a role, but also a few of my own principles came into play.
I put Tony Smith at 6 because he was near on useless when l wrote to him (as a constituent) about issues l wanted addressed…. So 6 was an easy choice!
5 and 4 were a toss up between the Greens & Animal Justice Party… While both parties sound warm, fuzzy and cuddly, the truth is that both parties would totally shut down many industries if given the chance. Upon reflection l should have switched it the other way around, but l ended up putting Elissa Sutherland Greens at 5 and the Animal Justice Party at 4.
I was then left with 3 and 2… Labor or Rise Up Australia. I put Hovig Melkonian (Labor) at 3 because like many people, l am also “Over” the major parties, therefore RUAP had to be my number 2.
At the end of the day, it was always more probable that the Liberals would hold the seat
and if there was to be an upset it was Labor who was the only genuine chance of causing that upset. My preferences supported an upset, but as it turned out it really did not matter much at all.
Even though the playing field will be just as unfair next election as it was in 2016, l look forward to running again, take care everyone, cheers!