LNP 4.3%
Incumbent MP
Teresa Gambaro, since 2010. Previously Member for Petrie 1996-2007.
Geography
Central Brisbane. Brisbane covers the Brisbane CBD and inner suburbs north of the Brisbane River including Fortitude Valley, Paddington, Ashgrove, Kelvin Grove, Newmarket, Clayfield and Hendra.
History
Brisbane is an original federation electorate. It has been held by the ALP for most of its history interrupted by short periods of conservative MPs, up until the last election.
The seat was first won by Thomas Macdonald-Paterson, who joined the Protectionists when Parliament first sat. Macdonald-Paterson was not endorsed by the local Protectionists for the 1903 election, and the split in the protectionist vote gave the seat to the ALP’s Millice Culpin.
Culpin was himself defeated after one term by Justin Foxton of the Anti-Socialist Party (formerly the Free Traders). Foxton served as a minister from 1909 until his defeat at the 1910 election by the ALP’s William Finlayson.
Finlayson held the seat until 1919, when he was defeated by Donald Charles Cameron of the Nationalist Party. Cameron held the seat until 1931, when he lost the seat against the tide of conservative gains against the Scullin Government. Cameron returned to serve one term in the neighbouring seat of Lilley from 1934 to 1937.
The ALP held the seat continuously for the next fourty-four years, with only two MPs holding the seat from 1931 until 1975. George Lawson won the seat in 1931 and held it until 1961. He served as Minister for Transport from 1941 until the 1943 election. The seat was then held by Manfred Cross until his defeat by Liberal Peter Johnson in 1975. Johnson defeated Cross again in 1977 before Cross won the seat back in 1980.
Cross held the seat until his retirement in 1990, when the ALP chose Arch Bevis, who held the seat for the next twenty years. While Brisbane has never been held by a large margin, it came closest to being lost to the Liberals in 1996, when Bevis’ margin was cut to 0.36%.
In 2010, the Liberal National Party ran former MP Teresa Gambaro. Gambaro had served as member for the marginal seat of Petrie from 1996 until she was defeated in 2007.
Gambaro won the seat in 2010 with a 5.7% swing, and was re-elected with a further 3.2% swing in 2013.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Teresa Gambaro is not running for re-election.
- Trevor Evans (Liberal National)
- Pat O’Neill (Labor)
- John Humphreys (Liberal Democrats)
- Bridget Clinch (Veterans Party)
- Kirsten Lovejoy (Greens)
- Mark Vegar (Family First)
Assessment
Brisbane is a marginal seat, and Labor will be hoping that the departure of Teresa Gambaro will make it easier for Labor to regain this seat. Brisbane has the highest Greens vote of any Labor/Coalition marginal seat in the country, and if Labor wins it will be on the back of a large number of Greens preferences.
Polls
- 51% to LNP – Newspoll, 13-15 June 2016
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Teresa Gambaro | Liberal National | 41,681 | 48.0 | +2.1 |
| Fiona Mcnamara | Labor | 26,163 | 30.1 | -0.3 |
| Rachael Jacobs | Greens | 12,452 | 14.3 | -6.9 |
| Veronica Mary Ann Ford | Palmer United Party | 3,643 | 4.2 | +4.2 |
| Connie Cicchini | Katter’s Australian Party | 951 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| Sharyn Joyner | Family First | 801 | 0.9 | -0.7 |
| Tony Rose | Secular Party | 602 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| John Roles | Stable Population Party | 564 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Informal | 3,504 | 4.0 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Teresa Gambaro | Liberal National | 47,145 | 54.3 | +3.2 |
| Fiona Mcnamara | Labor | 39,712 | 45.7 | -3.2 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas:
- Central – Brisbane, Fortitude Valley, New Farm, Spring Hill, Windsor.
- North East – Ascot, Clayfield, Hendra, Stafford
- West – Alderley, Ashgrove, Ithaca, Kelvin Grove, Newmarket, Paddington, Red Hill
The Liberal National Party won a large 61% majority in the north-east, but the rest of the seat was almost a tie. The LNP won 50.2% in the west, and the ALP scraped through with 50.05% in the centre of the seat.
The Greens vote was over 16% in the centre and west, and 10% in the north-east.
| Voter group | GRN % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 16.5 | 50.2 | 23,904 | 27.5 |
| North East | 10.0 | 61.2 | 17,812 | 20.5 |
| Central | 16.3 | 50.0 | 16,587 | 19.1 |
| Other votes | 14.1 | 55.8 | 28,554 | 32.9 |
Too close to call, although Gambaro’s departure has made it a much more plausible chance for Labor. I would expect the Green vote to go up to about 18-20% in line with the rise in their vote seen at council and state elections.
I don’t know about that. I mean if the Libs put a strong ethnic candidate up (maybe the former state member for Brisbane Central, Robert Cavallucci?) then they would be well-poised to do well here, in spite of the high Green vote. Another seat where the demographics are favoring the Coalition methinks.
BUT from what I hear, that looks like it is not going to be the case. Nevertheless, the Liberal Party has put forward two quality candidates, however no matter whom they choose, they should be wary of the huge head start that the ALP candidates has had.
W of S
Griffith is home to more of the inner city latte left. The Green vote will however gradually overtake the ALP . That is through increasing affluence though. The population seems to be growing quite fast, & the new voters seem to be predominantly LNP.
Gambarro may have done well to get Brisbane back for the LNP. However recently she has not covered herself with glory, & looks past it.
Trevor Evans has been endorsed by the Liberal Party.for this seat. This means that it will be a battle between two openly-gay candidates, an Australian first I believe.
Labor have a good chance of picking this one up, but it may depend on the flow of Green preferences
GG
I have a feeling demographic change will work strongly for the LNP, in this seat.
George Lawson last Boer War vet in parliament
Bit of a problem for Evans’ campaign here
https://www.buzzfeed.com/markdistefano/more-like-trevor-hawthorne?utm_term=.btLqkQ4v9M#.yfV1XWrVq9
That’s quite funny.
Pat O’Neil is a very strong candidate. I’m expecting this to swing above the average and return to the Labor fold.
I see this as a must win for Labor. One of the very few government marginals with a retiring incumbent.
Nick C, PJ
It Seems we have (the LNP have discovered !!) another Jaime Diaz.!!!
Where do the LNP find these cretins??. This one (Evans) was a chief of staff no less !!!. You would think they m,right have worked him out before now ???.
If the LNP had any sense they would disendorse him right now, but they won’t .
God i hope he (Evans) doesn’t get elected, to be elevated from a ( political ) party embarrassment, to a national one. What a waste of space !!!.
I don’t see this as Diaz-like.
All politicians are guilty of using canned lines. It’s hardly surprising that their websites do the same. The two sentences in question are so bland and generic that it doesn’t really amount to dishonesty. Though obviously not getting his name right was pretty dopey.
DW
You may be absolutely correct Still if the bloke can’t get this right ??
Labor can’t win the election if they don’t win this seat.
@FTB I am skeptical of their chances in QLD. I think their big wins are going to come from WA, but as we’ve seen from the past and elections like 1998, if it isn’t broadly uniform across the country, then it becomes very difficult.
Ft Bern
Absolutely right. This seat is where the impact of a Green’s open ticket might be felt. If a deal has been done, the libs are far more secure.
Labor will win back this seat
Due to anti liberal senterment
Amongst the rusted on libs who wont cop the turnbull leadership will cost them 10 percent here
ALP will win and god help us
Why cant we elect 150 independants
Instead of all these party hacks
Brisbane has future potential as a 3-way marginal between the ALP, Greens and Liberals, if the Greens get into a position where they can overtake the ALP. What sort of effort level are the Queensland Greens putting into this seat?
That would require approximately and 8% increase in primary from The Greens and an 8% decrease on primary from the ALP. Not going to happen and if it did the Liberals would still win.
Dave, I would have thought that Liberals in a seat like Brisbane would actually be much more receptive to Turnbull than to Abbott.
Some of the individual seat polling and commentary, while inconsistent, seems to show a broad pattern of Liberals doing relatively better in the inner city than the outer suburbs.
Re: demographics. All the growth is happening with urban-renewal apartments around Newstead and out at Hamilton. Agree the yuppie factor is very high.
Classic Turnbull-Lib seat should it stay on that side of the ledger.
Sportsbet has this being pretty close.
LNP 1.62, Labor 2.20
This one is tightening.
LNP 1.80, Labor 1.95
I got in on Labor @ $5????
Which is also reflected in Newspoll 2PP LNP 51%, ALP 49%
LNP strengthening here.
LNP 1.5, Labor 2.5
Labor could have used an unpopular Newman gov in power in Qld still. I feel like the state is jaded from the current ALP minority gov and it’s making some people hesitant to vote ALP federally.
The tide is turning here also. Pat O’Neil in a close one.
Galaxy poll 2PP, LNP 52%, ALP 48%
Sportsbet has this firming for the Coalition.
LNP 1.30, Labor 3.30
Presumably caused by the Galaxy poll.
My prediction: As long as the Ascot/Clayfield area is in Brisbane, it will be a competitive seat, the trends in other areas are also helping the LNP. With Teresa Gambaro retiring, this will be a key contest between the LNP and Labor candidates.
Based on current polling and the government’s current situation, narrow LNP hold.
I know that Teresa Gambarro definitely did better than most other LNP candidates do in this seat and from what I hear, even pulled some votes off soft Labor voters, but this seat is one I call a stubborn seat. There’s enough latte sipping Liberal voters who will never vote Labor, because they like Turnbull and it doesn’t not matter a hoot who the local member is. It could be Peter Slipper and they’d probably still vote LNP. The fact Pat O’Neill, a very good Labor candidate, can be trailing an average LNP candidate says it all really about how much of a marginal seat this really isn’t. I agree Bevis wasn’t great but Pat seems like he’d be great in parliament.
Prediction: Could go either way, but I am leaning towards O’Neill and Labor. Wonder where the god botherer vote will go considering both candidates are openly gay
Higher than average Family First primary, perhaps? Unless you’re only referring to 2PP.
Shouldn’t make a whole lot of difference – Gambaro was openly in favour of full legalisation of marriage (as I like to call it), as have her Labor counterparts. Those who would pay attention to the issue at all would have already deserted the LNP in Brisbane.
I didn’t think Labor would win this. Evans actually did quite well and got a swing to him – Turnbull’s support in this seat obviously was very different to the kind he got in other parts of Brisbane.
Really poor performance from O’Neill – Evans got a nice swing, which should not have happened seeing O’Neill had 18 mths head start. Seat strategy can’t have been good. Back to the drawing board for Labor in Brisbane.
While I think that the long-term trends will definitely favour the Libs here, Labor still had a dreadful result. Nearby Griffith was the same as well.
Just to put it into context here, the Liberal margin in this seat is at its highest ever. If you care to go back that far, the conservative margin as not been as good here since 1928.
If you look at the booths, there was a small swing to Labor over in Liberal heartland of Ascot, Hamilton and Clayfield, which was strange to say the least.
Not much to report elsewhere in the north and central, a few LNP swings and a few small ones for Labor.
But what the hell happened in the South West? All the booths from Dorrington through Ashgrove, Ithaca down to Milton swung wildly against Labor. Absolute shocker over that way, big primary swings of 7-8% away from Labor with much of it going to the Liberal party.
Griffith had a primary swing against Labor, but it don’t go to the Libs like it did in Brisbane. That’s the key issue.
Stevo: Ashgrove = Newman?
Maybe the Courier Mail sells well in some parts of Brisbane
I think what happened in Brisbane and Griffith was that the Greens had quite a reasonable swing towards them and most of those votes came from Labor, those voters then preferenced the Libs ahead of Labor because of Turnbull’s appeal.
@Pollster, yes that was Newman’s seat and swung big to Labor in 2015.
@dubopov lol
@l96 The 2 seats had a similar outcome (worse for Brisbane) but the mechanics were different. You just didn’t see the massive swing TO the Libs in Griffith that you saw in Brisbane. The Libs held, Labor dropped and went Green with 80% of those preferences coming back, so Terri Butler ended up losing some bark (1.1% 2 party)
In Brisbane, it seems that many Labor voters actually switched primary vote to Liberal as Evans had a primary swing. That’s a disaster that needs to be investigated, particularly in the SW corner where most of these swings occurred.
I would also investigate why Labor got swings in Liberal heartland around Ascot, which goes against what happened in Ashgrove and really doesn’t make much sense.
You can’t put it all down to Turnbull or demographics – it was one of the worst and most unexpected results in Qld really.
I am no expert on QLD demography, but if the rock-solid Liberal areas are particularly wealthy, it could reflect the backlash over the super issue. This was a problem for us during the campaign.
@wreathy good point that could well have been an issue around those booths.
Not sure what the issue was from Ashgrove and south of there, a train wreck swing against Labor, lost a bunch of booths with big swings against and big swings to the Libs.
Ascot certainly is a well-to-do area.