ALP 3.7%
Incumbent MP
Gary Gray, since 2007.
Geography
Coastal towns south of Perth. Brand covers Kwinana and Rockingham council areas, including Kwinana, Rockingham, Warnbro, Baldivis and Port Kennedy.
Redistribution
Brand previously contained northern parts of Mandurah council area. These areas were moved into Canning, but Brand’s boundaries were otherwise left intact. These changes increased the Labor margin from 2.9% to 3.7%.
History
Brand was created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives for the 1984 election. It has always been held by the ALP.
Brand was first won in 1984 by Wendy Fatin. Fatin had won the seat of Canning off the Liberal Party in 1983, and moved to the safer seat of Brand in 1984. She served as a minister in the Hawke/Keating government from 1990 to 1993, and retired in 1996.
In 1996, Brand was won by Kim Beazley. Beazley had previously been elected to the marginal seat of Swan in 1980. Beazley served as a minister from 1983 in the Hawke government, first as Minister for Aviation, then as a cabinet minister from 1984 to 1996. Beazley was Deputy Prime Minister from 1995 to 1996. He moved to the safer seat of Brand in 1996
Beazley was elected Labor leader after their 1996 election loss, and led the ALP to the 1998 and 2001 elections. After losing in 2001 he stepped down as Labor leader. He challenged for the leadership twice in 2003, but lost first to Simon Crean and then to Mark Latham. After serving on Mark Latham’s frontbench in the lead-up to the 2004 election, he was elected Labor leader in early 2005. He served in that role until December 2006, when he was replaced by Kevin Rudd, and he retired from the seat of Brand at the 2007 election. Beazley is now the Australian Ambassador to the United States.
Brand was won in 2007 by Gary Gray. Gray had been employed as an election organiser for the Australian Labor Party national office from 1986 to 1999, and was National Secretary for the 1996 and 1998 elections.
Gray was re-elected in 2010 with his margin cut from 6% to 3.3%, and his margin was cut further to 2.9% in 2013.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Gary Gray is not running for re-election.
- Philip Scott (Rise Up Australia)
- Madeleine King (Labor)
- Bob Burdett (Australian Christians)
- Dawn Jecks (Greens)
- Craig Buchanan (Liberal)
Assessment
Brand is a marginal Labor seat. Labor’s position could be made more vulnerable because of Gray’s retirement, but polling suggests Labor has significantly improved its position in Western Australia, which should help them retain Brand.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Gary Gray | Labor | 35,093 | 40.4 | -0.4 | 40.9 |
| Donna Gordin | Liberal | 33,634 | 38.7 | -0.7 | 38.0 |
| Craig Walker Lawrence | Palmer United Party | 6,518 | 7.5 | +7.5 | 7.6 |
| Dawn Jecks | Greens | 6,343 | 7.3 | -7.4 | 7.4 |
| Andrew Newhouse | Family First | 2,079 | 2.4 | -0.4 | 2.3 |
| Bob Burdett | Australian Christians | 1,685 | 1.9 | +1.9 | 2.0 |
| Gabrielle Lisanne Iriks | Rise Up Australia | 646 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.7 |
| Paul James Young | Democrats | 598 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.7 |
| Mick Le-Cocq | Citizens Electoral Council | 280 | 0.3 | +0.3 | 0.3 |
| Informal | 5,257 | 6.1 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Gary Gray | Labor | 45,940 | 52.9 | -0.5 | 53.7 |
| Donna Gordin | Liberal | 40,936 | 47.1 | +0.5 | 46.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, north and south. The north covers booths in Kwinana council area, while the centre and south covers booths in Rockingham council area.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 51.6% in the south to 61.2% in the north.
| Voter group | GRN % | PUP % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 7.5 | 8.7 | 51.6 | 21,318 | 28.2 |
| Central | 7.4 | 8.0 | 56.1 | 17,932 | 23.7 |
| North | 8.4 | 8.6 | 61.2 | 11,187 | 14.8 |
| Other votes | 6.8 | 6.1 | 49.8 | 25,090 | 33.2 |
Nothing exiting will happen here. Madeline King will enjoy an easy election.
Like Wakefield, this will likely only get safer for Labor over time. The Liberals’ best chance was 2013, and they still came up short.
MM
Yeah but the reality remains that an ALP member from WA has about as much influence in the H of R as a Sein Fein member in the house of Commons.
Maybe ALP voters in WA ought to consider voting XPT. !!!???
Yeah like Kim Beazley…oh wait
@Winediamond that made me laugh so hard!
kme
Is it some accident that no ALP MP is standing for re-election !!??? Just coincidence !!??.
i hope i’m wrong but it could be more than a few terms before Labor produces an MP of calibre from the west.
Then there’s the issue of whether either side considers WA to be important to them. The libs appear to ATM. However is that merely imaginary??.
As iv’e said previously i’m a successionist & i don’t even live in WA !!!. So imagine how the buggers really feel, or ought to !!!??
I’m sure the way both major parties feel is; a seat’s a seat. They all help to get to the magic 76.
kme
Do you reckon the Westralians believe that ??
There’s been a post in the last couple of days saying most (Westralians ) “feel overlooked” . This may be putting it very mildly indeed. i can’t recall the thread or the name.
Would expect a Brand to decent swing back ALP, it’s as blue collar a seat as you’ll find in WA. The swing could be minimised by the impact of the Governments decision to award a $900 million patrol boat contract to Austal ships which is a significant employer in the local area.
Malcolm
i agree completely, a very large swing, maybe close to 10%. i think though this may be a union thing, rather than building toy boats !!!. Call it a polarisation factor if you like.
Nobody says “Westralian” unless they’re being (at least a little bit) ironic. The word is “secession”, not “succession”, and however it’s spelt, it’s been a dead concept for a long time, for reasons I can’t be bothered going into.
Relevant to the thread: there’s a couple of seats in this part of the world which maybe be interesting at next year’s state election (Kwinana’s the sorta place where Labor wins and the Labor-leaning local mayor comes second), but federally it’s a non-issue. 53.7% 2pp in an election where Labor got below 42% statewide means this seat is pretty close to unloseable for Labor – 12% above the state average. Compare to Shortland (NSW) or Lalor (Vic), which both punch about that far above their state’s averages (and are similarly industrial). Reckon the Libs have any high hopes of winning Gillard’s old seat? Once the WA-specific elastic snaps back, Brand’s about that shade of red.
B of P
No argument about Brand being un – loseable &, regaining it’s true colours AIW !!!.
As i was discussing with Malcolm on the Perth Thread : WA Secession is not so much a concept, but rather, a more localised discussion on the inequities of our federation. I’m not advocating a civil war !!
However the more adult process of communication, negotiation, & accommodation would be justified & constructive IMV.
On a broader level states ( as WA has been ) are penalised for better relative performance by the ( CET) commonwealth. Whilst the mendicant states are rewarded (for their incompetence, & often self – indulgences ) !!!.
Perhaps the most desirable reality is that no state ought to have cause to question benefiting from the federation??
This dysfunction does need to be addressed for the good of the whole country.
Perhaps there is irony in being a Westralian ??. IDK & it’s not my place to say.
Ps i was disappointed you didn’t seem interested in , or to enjoy my comparisons of political leaders with generals. Attempting it was actually quite challenging. It was interesting to compare the different leadership styles , & performances.
@Bird of paradox – I regard Brand as very very different to seats like Lalor despite both sharing low rates of tertiary education and modest average incomes.
It’s main centre, Rockingham, is much more like the NSW central coast or Frankston/Mornington Peninsula. Or seats like Dunkley and Flinders. Eg:
* A high proportion of seniors (not necessarily rich but socially conservative monarchists wary of multiculturalism and often Liberal leaning)
* A higher than average proportion of UK migrants
* A lower than average proportion of non-English speakers (like many rural areas)
* A sliver of high income earners in beachfront homes
* Lots of bored unemployed white youth hanging around the main street etc (possibly attracted by the beach lifestyle which Lalor doesn’t have)
Apart from seniors, Rockingham has a fair number of defence personnel who would tend to be more conservative. This trait is also shared with Flinders.
Kwinana in the northern part of Brand is more your outer suburban formerly industrial working class turned high welfare area. It’s more Labor and more aboriginal than other parts of the seat and has 1960s housing commission stock similar to the likes of Broadmeadows or Dandenong. But it’s still less ethnically diverse than those (or for that matter some other suburbs of Perth eg Mirrabooka). However nearby areas have also been settled by first homebuyers wanting something affordable near rail and road about 30 – 40km from the city (again like Werribee in Lalor).
These are the sorts of seats that Hanson type policies would get a fair bit of traction. Brand is the sort of area dominated by insular protectionist plodders rather than self-improving upwardly mobile migrants like you get in the more ‘Asian’ areas.
My prediction: Labor hold, expect a decent swing here.
Big swing here, quite impressive considering Brand hasn’t had a double figures lead for Labor for a long time. Labor’s candidate Madeleine King did well.