LNP 8.9%
Incumbent MP
Andrew Laming, since 2004.
Geography
Bowman covers the entire territory of Redland LGA, to the east of Brisbane. The seat covers Stradbroke Island and other islands at the southern end of Moreton Bay as well as suburbs such as Capalaba, Cleveland, Alexandra Hills, Birkdale, Victoria Point and Redland Bay.
History
Bowman was created in 1949 and has been a typical marginal seat, swinging back and forth between Labor and Liberal. The seat was held by the Liberal Party for all but two terms of the 1949-1972 Coalition government. The seat was won by the ALP in 1961 before returning to the Coalition in 1963. Leonard Keogh won the seat for the ALP in 1969, and held on to the seat for the entirety of the Whitlam government. Bowman was a bellwether seat for over two decades from 1972 to 1998.
David Jull won the seat for the Liberals in 1975, and held the seat until 1983, when Keogh won the seat back after contesting it in 1977 and 1980. Jull returned to Parliament in nearby Fadden in 1984 and served briefly as a Minister in the Howard government.
Keogh was challenged for preselection in 1987 by Con Sciacca, who went on to serve as a parliamentary secretary and junior minister from 1990 to 1996, when he lost his seat to Andrea West before winning it back in 1998. Sciacca returned to the Labor frontbench and survived a close race in 2001 when Andrew Laming reduced his margin to 1.4%. In 2004, the Queensland redistribution saw some of Labor’s best parts of Bowman transferred to the new seat of Bonner, and Sciacca ran in Bonner, where he was defeated by the Liberal candidate.
Laming won Bowman in 2004 off a 6% swing, and he held the seat with a comfortable 9.1% margin. In 2007, another redistribution improved the position for the ALP slightly, and an 8.9% swing almost defeated Laming, eventually winning the seat by 64 votes. Even that slim margin was taken away from Laming by the 2010 redistribution, but a 10.4% swing towards the LNP saw Laming win the seat very comfortably. Laming was re-elected again in 2013.
Candidates
- Brad Scott (Greens)
- Kim Richards (Labor)
- Andrew Laming (Liberal National)
- Tony Duncan (Liberty Alliance)
- Brett Saunders (Family First)
Assessment
Bowman is a safe LNP seat.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew Laming | Liberal National | 42,828 | 49.3 | -6.4 |
| Darryl Briskey | Labor | 25,967 | 29.9 | -0.3 |
| John Charles Wayne | Palmer United Party | 11,049 | 12.7 | +12.7 |
| Penny Allman-Payne | Greens | 5,198 | 6.0 | -4.0 |
| Andrew O’Shea | Family First | 1,868 | 2.2 | -0.1 |
| Informal | 4,102 | 4.7 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew Laming | Liberal National | 51,155 | 58.9 | -1.5 |
| Darryl Briskey | Labor | 35,755 | 41.1 | +1.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Most of the population lies on the mainland, at the western end of the seat. These polling places have been split into west, south and central. The remaining polling places on the islands have been grouped together.
The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three out of four areas, ranging from 53.8% in the west to 62% in the centre. Labor won 50.7% on the islands, which make up a small proportion of the electorate’s population.
The Palmer United Party came third, with a vote ranging from 11% in the centre to 17% on the islands.
| Voter group | PUP % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 13.9 | 53.8 | 26,505 | 30.5 |
| Central | 11.0 | 62.0 | 11,609 | 13.4 |
| East | 15.2 | 60.0 | 11,193 | 12.9 |
| Islands | 16.9 | 49.3 | 3,772 | 4.3 |
| Other votes | 11.1 | 62.4 | 33,831 | 38.9 |
Andrew Laming has clearly done the hard yards here – this is by no means a rock solid LNP seat (although is trending that way), unlike Ryan, which is held on a lower margin. Unless there is a massive Labor tidal wave, he should win again easily, particularly now that Rudd is no longer leading Labor.
AK
It is interesting that Laming suffered a fundamental swing against himself, in 2013. Any idea why ??
@winediamond
I’d say that was from preference leakage from the 12.7% PUP vote, plus Rudd’s return as Labor leader in 2013. Darryl Briskey (former state member for Cleveland) being the ALP candidate last time may have caused the 2PP swing as well (both LNP and ALP went backwards on 1st preferences)
AK
Thanks . Interesting, & very plausible on both counts.
Perhaps Laming could expect an above average result if this is true, what would you think ??
Either way, in the eventual result, it offers clues as to PUP’s influence.
Very safe Liberal retain.
As I said earlier, Laming should hold this easily, with either a small swing to or against him.
Laming is an MP I really like, is not flustered about convention and tradition but on getting his point across. Top bloke who has clearly worked hard here.
can swing massively
@MQ I think if the ALP failed to pick this up in 2007 at the height of the ALP surge and with a QLD leader, then it is unlikely to change now. Especially at a time when most polls are pointing to the LNP not doing too badly in QLD.
The danger for the gov’t is really in WA this time, the swing is much larger there.
Last year’s state results here are not as promising for Labor as in say, Longman or Dickson. They won only one of the three state seats covering Redlands council, i.e. Bowman.
Andrew Laming should retain but it’s not as safe as its been made out to be. If Tony Abbott had contested this election as leader instead of Malcolm Turnbull Laming would be gone. It’s why he was so outspoken about calling for a leadership spill.
My prediction: LNP hold.