LIB 7.1%
Incumbent MP
Andrew Southcott, since 1996.
Geography
Southern Adelaide. Boothby stretches from the coast to the bottom of the Adelaide Hills. The seat covers suburbs such as Brighton and Marion in the western part of the seat, Blackwood, Aberfoyle Park and Flagstaff Hill in the south-east and Hawthorn in the north-east.
History
Boothby has almost always been held by conservative parties, with a few exceptions in periods of Labor dominance. The ALP held the seat for most of the first decade-and-a-half following federation, as well as during the depression years, but in both cases lost the seat through a defection to a new conservative party. The ALP also held the seat for six years in the 1940s, with the seat remaining in Liberal hands for the last sixty years.
The electorate of Boothby was created for the 1903 election. The seat was first held by the ALP’s Lee Batchelor, who served as Minister for Home Affairs in the Watson government and Minister for External Affairs in the first two Fisher governments. He took responsibility for the Northern Territory when it was ceded to the federal government in 1911 and died in office the same year.
While the ALP lost the seat to the new Commonwealth Liberal Party in the 1911 by-election, the seat was won back in 1913 by George Dankel, who joined the new Nationalist Party in 1916. He retired in 1917 and was replaced by William Story, a Senator and another former ALP member in the Nationalist Party.
Story lost his seat in 1922 to John Duncan-Hughes of the newly-formed Liberal Party, made up of Nationalists disenchanted with Billy Hughes’ leadership, and Duncan-Hughes entered the Nationalist fold upon Hughes’ retirement as Prime Minister and held the seat until 1928.
John Price won the seat for the ALP in 1928, was re-elected in 1929 and then followed Joe Lyons across the floor in 1931 to join the newly founded United Australia Party. He held the seat until his death in 1941, when Grenfell Price won the seat and held onto it for one term.
The ALP won the seat in 1943 at the depths of the UAP’s ill-fortunes and held it for six years until the 1949 election, when the seat was won by the Liberal Party’s John McLeay. The ALP has never won the seat since.
McLeay served as Speaker of the House of Representatives from 1956 until his retirement in 1966, and still holds the record for the longest-serving Speaker. He was succeeded by his son John McLeay Jr in 1966. McLeay junior held the seat until 1981, and served as a minister in the first two terms of the Fraser government.
McLeay junior’s resignation in 1981 saw the seat won at a by-election by former South Australian Premier Steele Hall. Hall had been Premier from 1966 to 1970, when he lost office. He had resigned from the Liberal and Country League in 1972 to form the progressive Liberal Movement, and was elected as a crossbench senator in 1974 and 1975 before rejoining the Liberal Party in 1976 and resigning from the Senate in 1977.
Hall held the seat until his retirement in 1996, when Andrew Southcott defeated Liberal Senate leader Robert Hill in a preselection contest. Southcott has held the seat ever since.
The seat has trended away from the Liberal Party over the last two decades. While the Liberals maintained a majority of the primary vote and a two-party-preferred vote of approximately 60% from 1984 until 1996, the 1998 election saw them fall below 50% for the first time. They remained steady in 2001, before Southcott suffered another swing against the national trend in 2004, falling to 55.4% of the two-party-preferred vote.
In 2007 the ALP preselected “star candidate” Nicole Cornes, who was generally considered to have performed poorly by the media and the ALP, but still managed a swing of another 2.5%, reducing Southcott’s margin to 2.9%.
In 2010, despite a national swing to the Coalition, Southcott’s margin was reduced further to 0.75%. In 2013, Southcott finally gained a swing back to the Liberal Party, with his vote increasing by 6.5%.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Andrew Southcott is not running for re-election.
- Karen Hockley (Nick Xenophon Team)
- Mark Ward (Labor)
- Jamie Armfield (Independent)
- Gary Wheatcroft (Family First)
- Evelyn Carroll (Animal Justice)
- Jane Bange (Greens)
- Nicolle Flint (Liberal)
- Rob de Jonge (Independent)
Assessment
With the departure of Andrew Southcott, it’s conceivable that Boothby could see a significant swing back to Labor, which gives Labor an outside chance of winning the seat. This seemingly simple scenario is complicated by the presence of the Nick Xenophon Team.
Xenophon polled well over 28% in Boothby in 2013 – it was his highest vote in any lower house seat in South Australia. If NXT runs hard and can poll strongly, this seat may turn into a three-cornered contest.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew Southcott | Liberal | 47,484 | 50.4 | +6.1 |
| Annabel Digance | Labor | 29,018 | 30.8 | -4.8 |
| Stephen Thomas | Greens | 11,287 | 12.0 | -1.5 |
| Natasha Edmonds | Family First | 3,683 | 3.9 | +1.1 |
| Sally Dawn Cox | Palmer United Party | 2,835 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Informal | 3,400 | 3.6 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew Southcott | Liberal | 53,866 | 57.1 | +6.5 |
| Annabel Digance | Labor | 40,441 | 42.9 | -6.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas:
- North-East – Hawthorn and Torrens Park.
- South-East – Aberfoyle Park and Flagstaff Hill.
- West – Brighton and Marion.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote ranged from 55% in the west to 59% in the north.
The Greens primary vote ranged from 10.7% in the west to 13% in the south-east.
Nick Xenophon’s Senate vote ranged from 29.2% in the west to 31.3% in the south-east.
| Voter group | XEN % | GRN % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 29.2 | 10.7 | 55.2 | 25,358 | 26.9 |
| South-East | 31.3 | 13.2 | 56.0 | 24,418 | 25.9 |
| North | 30.0 | 11.4 | 59.3 | 21,038 | 22.3 |
| Other votes | 24.8 | 12.5 | 58.3 | 23,493 | 24.9 |
Just a heads up: The ‘Boothby’ link on the pendulum page links to the profile for “Blair”
This is probably NXT’s second-best chance for a lower house seat after Mayo. It’s a big ask though.
TBH if the Libs do their job in selecting a quality candidate here I think they should be ok – despite the challenge from NXT. I don’t think Southcott really had much of a personal vote here.
From what I’ve read, Southcott wasn’t regarded as any sort of great MP even by his own party. Maybe they’re actually better off now he’s gone.
MM
Yep. We are better off without such an obvious time- server. Although who is Nicole Flint ??
The Libs and NXT have two strong candidates here. Nicolle Flint seems very impressive for the Libs – former adviser to Turnbull and Nelson, well connected in the party, a PhD candidate at Flinders, smart and articulate. Obvious ministerial material in the years to come.
Karen Hockley is the Xenophon candidate. Mitcham councillor, super active in the Blackwood community, good networker and well liked. Would be an active advocate for Boothby like Cathy McGowan in Indi.
Labor’s Mark Ward was a Mitcham councillor too, but more well known for stopping developments (getting council approval to erect a carport or a mobile phone tower can take years with this council) than making things happen. Doesn’t seem to be in the same league as Hockley or Flint.
If Hockley (NXT) polls better in the primary vote than Ward (Labor) then she might pull off an upset with the Labor preferences.
Old Guy is correct in his synopsis of Boothby. I have been out on the hustings with a candidate for Boothby for some time now. For fairnessI won’t metion names, but suffice it to say that I have spoken to hundreds if not thousands of people in the electorate.
There is definately a swing on.
People are indicating that they are fed up with the major’s. Nick X will definately be returned to the Senate with increased popularity. We have to remember that this is the first time that NXT has fielded candidates for the lower house, and people are attracted to the added option. The biggest hurdle NXT faces is the fact that NXT can only become involved in parliament as a ‘balance of power’ option, and people are not sure about that. It seems they want certainty.
My call for Boothby is that Nicole Flint will have residual Liberal support, but may suffer some backlash from the Abbott/Turnbull swapover, the disastrous 2014 budget, Holden closing etc. If that backlash is severe, the Libs are out.
Mark Ward with his unpopular Mitcham council activities will have difficulties transferring to Federal politics, and coupled with voters’ disenchantment of the majors, Labor will not win the seat.
The other minor parties and independants have little or no profile in the electorate, and the votes they attract will not influence the outcome other than with preferences, which as we know is a whole new ball game this election.
So that leaves Karen Hockley. As ‘Old Guy’ says in his synopsis, she is hugely popular in her Council activities, is well known as a community activist in Blackwood and surrounds, and will poll very well in her own right. Add the Xenophon factor, and the disenchantment with the major parties, Hockley can win in her own right. With preferences she’s a shoe in.
It would be enormously surprising if the NXT candidate here were to get 50% of the primary vote (which is what “Hockley can win in her own right” implies).
Her path to victory is taking enough paint off Labor to come second on primaries; also from from the Liberal to ensure they fall sufficiently short of 50%; and to get enough preference flow to stay in second place after the Greens exclusion.
Used to live in Boothby, there are a reasonable number of Green voters and I imagine many of those voters will preference NXT. The idea of knocking off the Lib after so many dismal years of having Southcott will be just too delicious to ignore. The Labor candidate as per usual looks dismal.
kme
Yes, I agree that it is enormously surprising. But let me say something else. I have looked everywhere I know to find some poll that would give me some clue as to what I have heard from the public could be true. To this time I have not yet found one. When I enquired about this, I was told that all of the available polling ‘slots’ allocated for Boothby had been bought. It is then logical to think, that with the lack of any public release, that whoever bought the slots does not like the data they are extracting from that poll.
Conjecture, I know, but with the avalanche of PM’s into Mayo attacking Nick Xenophon and Rebekha Sharkie, the sentiment of the punters may be spilling over. It may be that the Libs with Nicole Flint are underestimating the pull of Karen Hockley…
kme
As a footer to my last comment, I have to disagree that any candidate has to get 50% of the vote win in their own right.
Hypothetically (remember that word) speaking. If Labour were to get 25%, Libs 25%, Greens 5-15%, and Independants 2-5%, then the other candidate would have to gain (approximately) only 40% to win…
That’s not how the system works. A candidate on 40% needs to acquire another 10% from preferences before they can be declared elected. In the situation you describe it would be possible through high preference flows for one of the candidates on 25% to overtake the candidate on 40% and win (eg. if the 40% candidate was say One Nation).
With the lack of Labor election material in Boothby and the selection of a less-than-dynamic Labor candidate, anyone else think that Labor are trying to come third?
That way, all Labor preferences tip to Hockley (NXT), possibly pushing her over the line. If Labor comes second, Hockley’s preferences will be split as many Xenophon supporters are Liberal voters and would preference Flint (Lib) over Ward (Labor).
So maybe Labor HQ thinks by running dead the Libs could lose a safe seat even if Labor don’t win.
Morgan for what it’s worth says:
ALP 31% (!), Lib 29%, NXT 20%, Greens 12.5%, Others 7.5%.
Again, I must admit it seems difficult to credit Labor increasing their vote.
Wow Mark. Thanks for that polling. Still trying to process it. If it’s at all accurate, Ward (Labor) has 44% after you add the Greens, and only needs 6-7% of preferences from the 27.5% of NXT and the others.
So Boothby elects a do-nothing Liberal for 20 years and now it would seem there’s a good chance of it electing a Labor candidate who, if he continues his current form as a councillor, would also do very little. Maybe some of it is Flinders Uni votes – the arts, science and unis in general were hammered under Abbott. And carworkers I suppose. Who will ever forget Hockey in federal parliament goading Holden to leave and laughing about it?
I can’t figure out why Hockley isn’t polling more. Maybe because she’s well known in only one part of the electorate?
Based on those numbers, I could actually see NXT getting the seat, oddly enough. Picture this…
The “Others” get distributed first. Of the 7.5%, 5% goes to NXT, 1.5% to Greens, 1% to Lib. Current status:
Labor 31%, Lib 30%, NXT 25%, Greens 14%.
Next, the Greens get distributed, and again, about two-thirds goes to NXT. Let’s say 9% to NXT, 4% to Labor, 1% to Lib.
Labor 35%, Lib 31%, NXT 34%
Now Liberals are distributed. NXT just needs a little over 50% of Liberal preferences to take the seat. If we suppose that 50% of Liberal primary voters preference NXT over Labor, and 50% the other way around, then I would expect the 2% that came from “Others” to provide the necessary extra bit.
My prediction: Likely Liberal hold, although expect the Nick Xenophon Team to poll well here, particularly in the eastern half (the suburbs in Mitcham/Onkaparinga councils) of the seat.
Karen Hockley should have resigned from Mitcham Council, like Mark Ward did. She chose not to. Obviously hedging her bets as she is not that confident I would suggest.
Keeping an eye on this one. Not convinced NXT didn’t come 2nd after preferences, and unlike Barker and Sturt the Liberal vote is low enough for a possible win.
Daniel .. surely Xenophon would be all over the possibility if it were any sort of chance .. his scrutineers would have been absolute shockers if they weren’t tracking minor party preferences
They’d need to tally every minor party vote where NXT was higher than both Liberal and Labor, which requires looking at 3 boxes, while the AEC workers only need to look at 2, so there’s practical difficulties there.
I also don’t think it’s particularly advantageous in terms of media at this stage (now Turnbull will form government without NXT help) for Xenophon to declare that he may have won Boothby. A late upset would be more interesting.
I know that labor scrutineers were used to ascertain the preferences in our local state seat of Maryborough when the AEC had incorrectly decided the battle was between the incumbent LNP and an Independent previous member. The Labor camp were confident days before the AEC and media were aware that Labor could (and did) win.
The extra factor in QLD (optional preferential) also required scrutineers to tally the exhausted votes of the Ind and several others.
There is no way known Xenophon would be keeping it quiet – he would be shouting from rooftops.
dubopov – it might only be borderline; Xenophon isn’t going to brag about being ahead of Labor in the seat if it’s so close that they might drop behind again. Going “We’re ahead!” only for it to turn out that they’re not is a bad idea, in terms of optics.
at very least, Xenophon would say that he hadn’t written it off yet .. as in grey
In Grey, they knew they were in second, they didn’t know if they’d be able to win the seat. So when they say “we’re still hoping to win the seat”, nobody’s going to react with “are you insane? You’re not even in the top two!”
This situation is different. Xenophon will comment if, and only if, they get into the 2CP. In the meantime, I’m sure his scrutineers are there, keeping track.
It will be quite useful to see to what extent people who vote Green are motivated by distaste for the major parties. If it was about political positions they’d follow the HTV and put Labor above “centrist” Xenophon, but I wouldn’t be surprised by a large number of Greens preferences going to the “anti establishment” candidate.
This will be good for analysing the Greens where they become an established part of the political landscape (eg in the ACT where they’ve held balance of power for 2 consecutive terms).
In terms of proportional gain on the ALP, I’d expect NXT will do better in terms of Family First. I’d guess these to split 45/45/10 between Libs/NXT/ALP so that will enable NXT to close by about 30-40% of the FF primary vote.
With the Greens, would be hard to see the ALP getting less than 40%, which will limit the gain to about 10% of the bigger Green primary (after allowing for about 10% to the Libs). If the % were to fall to 30%, (ie 30/60/10 ALP/NXT/LIB) the net gain to NXT would triple to 30%!
I did some crude maths on the seats where NXT was close to coming 2nd to see if it would have changed the outcome.
If Labor voters split preferences the same way they did in Mayo, Liberals would still have won both Boothby and Sturt. Boothby would have been the 2nd most marginal seat in Australia after Herbert with an approximately 300 vote margin. Sturt would also be classified as a marginal seat, with Pyne ahead by about 5000 votes (between Page and Eden Monaro).
However this is with open tickets. Boothby and Sturt are both vulnerable if NXT can lift its vote and Labor and Greens how to votes seal the deal.
It will be a dilemma for the Greens however as both seats have looked winnable for Labor in the past (Boothby moreso).