LNP 3.7%
Incumbent MP
Ross Vasta, since 2010, previously 2004-2007.
Geography
Eastern suburbs of Brisbane. Bonner covers eastern parts of the City of Brisbane south of the Brisbane River. Main suburbs include Wynnum, Manly, Mount Gravatt and Carindale, as well as the sparsely populated Moreton Island.
History
Bonner was created at the redistribution prior to the 2004 election as a notionally Labor seat, taking in the most pro-Labor parts of Bowman, then held by the ALP.
At the 2004 election, sitting Member for Bowman Con Sciacca ran for Bonner. Sciacca had held Bowman since 1987, except for one term after losing the seat in 1996. A swing to the Liberal Party saw Sciacca defeated by Ross Vasta (LIB) by less than 800 votes.
A 5% swing to the ALP gave the seat to Kerry Rea in 2007. In 2010, Rea was challenged by Vasta, who won the seat back for the Liberal National Party. Vasta was re-elected again in 2013.
Candidates
- Matthew Linney (Liberal Democrats)
- Ken Austin (Greens)
- Jarrod Wirth (Independent)
- Laura Fraser Hardy (Labor)
- Ross Vasta (Liberal National)
- Andrew Broughton (Family First)
Assessment
Bonner is a key marginal seat, and since its creation in 2004 it has only stayed in the same party’s hands at one election. While Vasta should have a personal vote, he has lost the seat before when the national vote has swung against the Coalition.
Polls
- 56% to LNP – Reachtel commissioned by Fairfax, 9 June 2016
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ross Vasta | Liberal National | 40,186 | 46.8 | +0.4 |
| Laura Fraser Hardy | Labor | 30,927 | 36.0 | -0.1 |
| James Derek Macanally | Palmer United Party | 6,712 | 7.8 | +7.8 |
| Dave Nelson | Greens | 5,876 | 6.8 | -4.3 |
| Jeff Penny | Family First | 1,789 | 2.1 | -0.7 |
| Jarrod Wirth | Uniting Australia Party | 386 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Informal | 3,895 | 4.5 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ross Vasta | Liberal National | 46,110 | 53.7 | +0.9 |
| Laura Fraser Hardy | Labor | 39,766 | 46.3 | -0.9 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts: Mount Gravatt in the south, Wynnum-Manly in the north, and a group covering booths in the central part of the seat.
The Liberal National Party’s vote peaked with 56.6% of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre, and 54% in the south. The ALP managed 53% in the north.
The Palmer United Party and the Greens both polled around 7-8%, with the Greens outpolling PUP in the south and PUP polling more strongly in the centre and north.
| Voter group | PUP % | GRN % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 6.6 | 7.9 | 54.0 | 21,544 | 25.1 |
| Central | 7.7 | 5.6 | 56.6 | 18,046 | 21.0 |
| North | 9.9 | 7.6 | 47.1 | 17,024 | 19.8 |
| Other votes | 7.5 | 6.4 | 55.5 | 29,262 | 34.1 |
A tight contest but I think the Libs will hold this seat. Vasta got one of the largest swings back to him in 2010 ~ 7% or so. He would’ve gotten an even larger swing towards him in 2013 were it not for Palmer.
I agree that this will be a tight contest, A toss up at the moment, Vasta should have a significant personal vote but the swing towards Labor in Queensland is the biggest out of anywhere.
W of S & L96
Vasta ‘s personal vote ought to be impossible to overcome. Another seat with changing demographics favouring the LNP.
A large factor which is, & ought not to be lost on other australians. QLD provincial, parochialism !!!!. A QLDer (Rudd) not leading the ALP will be a factor. Yes i know it is incredible. However north of the Tweed, these thing really do matter !!! Queenslander’s are australians second !!!.
You’re right winediamond. It is worth noting that even when Rudd led the ALP into government in 07, the 2PP in QLD was essentially 50/50.
Does Vasta really have a “significant personal vote”? After losing Bonner in 2007, he contested Wynnum-Manly at the Brisbane city council election of 2008. That seat swung 3.3% to Labor despite a 5.5% Liberal swing across Brisbane as a whole!
I think it’s more the case that this area has trended Liberal. When Bonner was created in 2004, it was considered to be a naturally (albeit marginal) Labor seat. Con Sciacca was a surprise casualty at that election. It’s also significant the Chatsworth and Mansfield were retained by the LNP at last year’s state election.
DW
Yeah. I seem to recall that the LNP vote in Bonner (for Vasta ) was a lot higher , than the senate vote. Peter Brent had an Australia wide graph measuring this. That is the best indicator presumably.
You have raised some excellent points though.
Vasta’s vote wasn’t impossible to overcome in 07. He performed terribly compared to his colleagues in queensland in 2013 and the area has some solid labor areas, this would fall for sure if there is a swing to labor in queensland.
Whatever personal vote Vasta has is already well and truly built into the margin here, since he was elected at the election-before-last.
If the swing is on, he’s gone, and if it’s not, he should be safe.
@Dan & Kme I don’t think that is necessarily right. Many Liberal seats in QLD had artificially small swings towards them in 2013 due to the preference leakage from the high Palmer vote. I would assume that at the very least a majority of those votes would have been Liberal votes.
If you look at some of the remarkably high Greens votes in Queensland in 2010 in unexpected places, it’s quite likely a good chunk of that is who voted for Palmer in 2013 – an ‘anyone but the major parties’ vote, so who knows where those votes came from/will go.
New development and demographic change seems to be helping the LNP here, but at this stage I am tentatively predicting a Labor gain
GG
Your assessment is undeniably correct.
This is a seat which will be a strong indicator of whether QLDers dislike BS , more than MT. IMV this will be an important factor. Queenslanders do take things very personally !!!.
W of S
Yeah i’ve made a few comments, on the PUP vote along these, & other lines. i have no idea whatever where PUP got the majority of their votes from, or where they will now go.
However i do have the view that BS will fail to resonate in QLD during the election campaign. Perhaps even quite spectacularly so
Another seat Labor falsely thinks they’ll win this election, or could win. They won’t pick this up until they are headed for a solid election.
Dear Ben,
You neglect to mention here that I am also running as an independent for the Bonner Division. Would really appreciate if you could correct this oversight and perhaps also place a link to my website – http://www.jarrodwirth.id.au
Have good day!
Sincerely,
Jarrod Wirth.
New poll here has the Libs up 56 – 44.
As Winediamond and I pointed out earlier, it is likely that a good chunk of the PUP vote has come back to the Libs, probably the source of their increased 2PP margin.
This poll would seem to vindicate the view that while the ALP are getting very favorable numbers out of WA, they are struggling in crucial marginals in NSW and QLD.
My prediction: Likely LNP hold, unless the tide is truly in Labor’s direction.
Prediction, Liberals narrowly ahead