ALP 5.3%
Incumbent MP
Shayne Neumann, since 2007.
Geography
Blair covers most of the City of Ipswich as well as Somerset Regional Council. The seat covers the urban area of Ipswich and rural areas to the west, and towns such as Esk and Kilcoy.
History
Blair was created at the 1998 election, one of a number of seats created in Queensland over the last few decades. The seat was held by the Liberal Party until 2007, when the ALP won.
Blair took over territory in Ipswich in 1998 from the seat of Oxley. Oxley had a long history of being held by the Labor Party but was lost to disendorsed Liberal candidate Pauline Hanson in 1996. Hanson formed One Nation in her term in the House of Representatives, and contested Blair in 1998. Hanson came first on primary votes, but lost on preferences. Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson came third on primary votes, but overtook the ALP on Nationals preferences and then overtook Hanson on Labor preferences.
Thompson held Blair at the 2001 and 2004 elections, but lost in 2007 to Labor candidate Shayne Neumann. Neumann was assisted by a redistribution which saw Blair take in more of pro-Labor Ipswich, losing rural conservatives areas to the northwest, although it gained areas to the southwest which have since been shedded.
Neumann has been re-elected twice, in 2010 and 2013.
Candidates
- Sandy Turner (Independent)
- Jonathan Emms (Independent)
- Shayne Neumann (Labor)
- Patricia Petersen (Independent)
- Pat Walsh (Greens)
- Troy Aggett (One Nation)
- Teresa Harding (Liberal National)
- Geoff Darr (Family First)
Assessment
Shayne Neumann should be able to win re-election in Blair.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Shayne Kenneth Neumann | Labor | 32,818 | 41.6 | -0.5 |
| Teresa Harding | Liberal National | 26,734 | 33.9 | -3.7 |
| Anthony John Stanton | Palmer United Party | 9,805 | 12.4 | +12.4 |
| Clare Rudkin | Greens | 3,359 | 4.3 | -6.8 |
| Dale Chorley | Katter’s Australian Party | 2,491 | 3.2 | +3.2 |
| Elwyn Denman | Family First | 2,257 | 2.9 | -2.1 |
| Shannon Deguara | Australian Independents | 1,011 | 1.3 | +1.3 |
| Anthony Mackin | Rise Up Australia | 504 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Informal | 4,749 | 6.0 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Shayne Kenneth Neumann | Labor | 43,642 | 55.3 | +1.0 |
| Teresa Harding | Liberal National | 35,337 | 44.7 | -1.0 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into five areas. Booths in Somerset local government area have been grouped together. Those booths in the City of Ipswich have been divided into four parts. Those in the rural west of the council area have been grouped together. Most of Blair’s population lives in the urban area around the centre of Ipswich, and these have been divided into Central, North and East.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the three urban Ipswich areas, with a vote ranging from 55% in North Ipswich to 65% in East Ipswich.
The LNP won 55% of the two-party-preferred vote in the Somerset area and 53% in the rural parts of Ipswich council area.
The Palmer United vote ranged from 12.4% in central Ipswich to 14.7% in rural Ipswich.
| Voter group | PUP % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central Ipswich | 12.4 | 59.9 | 22,684 | 28.7 |
| North Ipswich | 13.0 | 54.8 | 10,443 | 13.2 |
| Somerset | 13.9 | 44.7 | 9,956 | 12.6 |
| East Ipswich | 13.0 | 65.3 | 9,256 | 11.7 |
| Rural Ipswich | 14.7 | 46.7 | 5,373 | 6.8 |
| Other votes | 10.7 | 53.3 | 21,267 | 26.9 |
This should be a Labor hold, but I think people would be voting for the party NOT Shayne Neumann. Could be a surprise though.
A very strong result for Labor in 2013, albeit on more pro-Labor boundaries than in the Howard era. Growth in Ipswich and the resultant loss of conservative rural areas seems to have made this a reliable Labor seat.
MM
Yes . Surely Blair will lose all that northern area (Somerset) next year ??.
Labor should be home and dry here.
Massive swing here in 2007 and it’s never really swung back.
One Nation will be interesting here. Will the votes come from Labor? Where will the 13% PUP votes go? I expect bit of a swing back to Teresa Harding and the LNP, maybe around the 3% mark, but unsure if it will be a coalition win. I would imagine the LNP will also be fighting hard here if only to increase the senate vote.
Andrew
You are quite right to point to the volatility from the previous minor party vote.
However if Harding could do no better than win back around 25% as preferences in 2013, she sort of missed the boat.
In fact you would have to ask what she is still doing there ( having gained so little traction ), in the first place ??
I’m quite interested if anyone has any ideas on why the Greens vote fell so precipitously here, & elsewhere in QLD ???. Also if it will be restored in 2016, & if not fully , then by how much ??
A 52 – 48 finish is wrong considering Labor’s vote will almost certainly will increase in Queensland. Shayne Neumann will likely increase his margin, also take note that Labor vote is doing better in the regions then the urban areas which will help Neumann.
@PNW what are you basing this info on???? I’d have thought Labor would be looking to pick up seats (like Petrie for example) in its traditional heartland of Brisbane?
If you put all of Ipswich in one seat it will be Labor most times…….. short of a disaster……. 2016 vote in this seat will be better than 2013….. expect increased labor vote
Wreathy of Sydney it was in the Courier Mail.
“Of those seats, it will take just 15,943 Queenslanders to switch their votes to the Labor Party and boot out incumbents, gifting Opposition Leader Bill Shorten an election-winning chance.
It is understood internal Labor polling shows Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is significantly less popular in regional Queensland than in urban electorates.”
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/votes-of-16000-queenslanders-could-catapult-bill-shorten-into-the-lodge/news-story/092f092417923d13e4eb7ee1f3a28f72
I’m interested to see what sort of primary vote One Nation pulls here in Blair. They may benefit from there not being a Palmer candidate and capitalise on right of centre voters who don’t want to vote LNP. I’d expect their preferences to flow to the LNP in the end though. Safe Labor retain in the end IMO.
Harding has been in papers here a lot including the Queenslad Times.
From her Facebook page she has had a string of LNP ministers and senators and been given the 200 million to match labour on the never ending issue of the Ipswich motorway. This couldn’t be a target seat could it?
Neumann will easily be re-elected here. Unfortunately it is not, at least in my specific suburb, due to his hard work or keeping on top of local issues; in fact I asked him about a specific piece of infrastructure in my area (it was at the time the only building there at that spot,I even named the exact street and the other buildings it was nearish to and what was to be built right next to it) and he told he could not answer my question due to there being so many buildings in that exact area :S
I doubt the 2010 Greens vote had much to do with the candidate. The Greens vote was equally unexpectedly high across the other outer Brisbane seats, as it was in the suburbs of every other mainland capital except Sydney, which was the only one which didn’t see the large TV advertising campaign (although it was up significantly in a few seats there too anyway). In 2010, an election where there was little enthusiasm for the major parties, the Greens were clearly positioned as the main ‘protest vote’ option. In 2013 PUP captured much of that market instead. The 2010 Greens vote in places like Ipswich and Logan was an anomaly we likely won’t see again, but it was a national pattern, not local factors.
Looking forward to the candidate forums and debates. It will very interesting for the candidates to outline their party and own positions on variety of social /economic issues and their vision for the next term of parliament if they were elected or re elected. I’m sure Shayne is pretty safe here.
Does anyone know how the first debate went? Also is there a website for the location of the next few if there are any more? Or is it a waste of time because Shayne will romp back in and the other candidates haven’t got a hope.
Regards
Classic71
I think this year (2016) people will be looking for a total change. The consensus is that they are tired of Labor/Liberal pathetic excuses and their failing to put the people first. It is time for a major shakeup and to let the Politicians know that they don’t accept the 2 party preferred scenario. Whilst Shayne is a good politician for the region, in recent times he has failed to address what is most important to the people.
Hey everyone,
Looks can be deceiving, yes Shayne holds it by a comfortable 5.3% margin but I think there will be a big swing against him. Keep in mind that Blair is Labor’s most right-leaning seat (according to ABC vote compass).
On the election trail, of the hundreds of people I’ve talked to they are all tired of the two major parties. All of them, except just a few (I can count them on my fingers), were positive about my campaign and policies and was hoping I would do well. This alone leaves me hopeful, I just need help getting the word out.
Here’s a summary:
Representing you, not one of the two.
Politician’s Transparency & Wastefulness: Cutting donation declaration threshold, spending on entitlements & pensions.
Supporting: Agriculture, education, pensioners & war veterans, local business, local economic growth, local infrastructure projects, reducing unemployment, improving housing affordability and reducing fuel credits
Be sure to visit my website http://www.jonathanemms.com.au/ and facebook page https://www.facebook.com/JonathanEmmsBlair/. And please leave feedback on what issues you would like me to represent for you.
Jonathan Emms.
Does anyone know what’s the feeling out in the electorate about the candidates. Apparently there have been two debates one with ACL and Shayne was heckled about a change in SSM and some sparks flew during the Springfield chamber debate . Are there any more forums debates. According to the punters the coalition will win the election and Blair will stay in labour hands again . I’m not to sure what that means for Blair, in the next term but good luck to all the candidates.
Where are the debates and what polling.
All is I see is a lot of Harding corflutes
I’ve been checking her Facebook page she has had lots of senior ministers and made her second election promise about roads in the Somerset region. Based on this there seams to be some support for Harding. As a new political tragic I would love to see the source of this polling or how it’s done
Good luck to all candidates
Regards to all
Classic71
@Classic71 – I haven’t seen any specific polling in Blair – but even if the election ends up at 51/49 to the LNP that would be a 2.5% swing to Labor. Using the rising tide assumption then I would assume a seat like Blair would generally see maybe a small swing to the ALP here. It swung to the ALP on a 2PP basis last election, defying the swing against Labor broadly.
I dare say the Libs will be throwing money at it – hence the conflutes and high profile visits. Maybe they are bullish about it, and internal polling could be feeding that. I just can’t see a 55-45 result swinging around to favour the Libs winning overall in an election where there will be a small national swing to the ALP.
Thanks for the quick reply and explanation Mrs Pepper so if Harding got up it would be a boil over in footy terms.
Good luck
What are your views on Marriage Equality??
Well I visited pre poll spoke to three candidates today labour Shayne Neumann LNP Teresa Harding and Greens rep for Pat Welsh. I found Shayne just bagged the LNP and told me he would save penalty rates and protect Medicare. I then spoke to Teresa Harding she offered a defence aerospace park and talked about a jobs plan and getting some defence contracts at the RAAF base made aviavible for local business to bid for. I spoke to the greens but I admit I wasn’t very interested in. So as I go in the booth Shayne looks at me like iI had done something wrong by talking to the LNP Teresa after him and try’s to give me another labour HTV as I go in. Until that point I was undecided who to vote for but what made my mind up his booth workers made fun of another LNP booth worker for no reason. After that I dropped the labour HTV in bin and voted to give Teresa Harding a go. I hope she succeeds im very disappointed in the labour antics at pre poll. It is everyone’s right to represent their party this is a democracy not a tin pot third country.
Good luck to Teresa and the other candidates, Shayne just because I spoke to the others doesn’t mean you lost my vote. You lost my vote by yours and booth workers actions mocking a young man helping out on pre poll and bagging the opposition and not offering anything for Blair.
I thought a sitting member would be above that and not let that type of behaviour go un checked.
Set the example and lead by example.
It appears that party policy played absolutely no part in determining your vote which would be a pity if true.
Antics of the parties pre poll staff usually doesnt rate that highly….
I feel there will be a large swing against the majors in this election. We have been promised so much and been delivered so little. This has been done by both the majors over many elections.
This election it will be the Independents and Minors that will get the confidence of the electorate. Real people, not career politicians. Live every day in the real world, and know the people of the town.
Would I have stood for election in the past? No. Why? Never before have we been treated as badly as we are now. No party can keep 100% happy 100% of the time.
We now have the majors both supporting issues such as “Safe Schools” and “Marriage Equality”. These are both denigrating our morals and ethics. We are a christian country (In the main) and most are in agreeance a marriage is between a man and a woman in the eyes of our lord. We as a society do not believe in sexualising children.
The moral rot has to stop! The Independents are the answer. You are welcome to look me up. http://www.sovereigntyparty.org.au/sandyturner#.V3UgP6KNeM8 or on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/SandyTurnerForBlair/
May our country regain the true spirit and ethos that built us!
Sandy Turner
Yappo both candidates had good ideas but you must wonder If a potential federal and in this case a sitting member allows that type of behaviour to go on unchecked then you must wonder where is his moral compass. If he is re elected what his behaviour going to be like, he says he’ll protect the most vulnerable but if his supporters do that well not good.
Set the example and lead by example