LIB 19.0%
Incumbent MP
Philip Ruddock, since 1993. Previously Member for Parramatta 1973-1977, Member for Dundas 1977-1993.
Geography
Northern Sydney. Berowra covers most of Hornsby Shire and northern parts of the Hills. Major suburbs include Berowra, Hornsby, Cherrybrook, Pennant Hills, and Dural. It also stretches as far north as Dangar Island and Wisemans Ferry.
Redistribution
Berowra kept all of its existing territory, gaining the remainder of Thornleigh and slightly more of Hornsby from Bradfield, and also gaining Rogans Hill from Mitchell. These changes cut the Liberal margin slightly from 19.1% to 19%.
History
Berowra was created at the 1969 election, and has always been safely retained by the Liberal Party.
The seat was first won in 1969 by Tom Hughes. Hughes had previously held the seat of Parkes since 1963, but its abolition in 1969 saw him move to Berowra. He was Attorney-General in John Gorton’s government, but was dropped from the cabinet when William McMahon became Prime Minister, and he retired at the 1972 election.
In 1972, the seat was won by Harry Edwards, a professor of economics at Macquarie University. Edwards held the seat for the next 21 years, retiring in 1993. He was replaced by Philip Ruddock, who had held other seats since 1973. Ruddock has held the seat ever since, serving as a senior minister for the entirety of the Howard government.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Philip Ruddock is not running for re-election.
- Julian Leeser (Liberal)
- Josh Andrews (Labor)
- Mick Gallagher (Independent)
- Emma Heyde (Greens)
- Roger Woodward (Independent)
- Brendan Clarke (Science Party)
- Leighton Thew (Christian Democratic Party)
Assessment
Berowra is a very safe Liberal seat.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Philip Ruddock | Liberal | 53,236 | 61.4 | +1.5 | 61.5 |
| Michael Joseph Stove | Labor | 16,402 | 18.9 | -3.1 | 19.0 |
| John Storey | Greens | 8,684 | 10.0 | -1.4 | 10.0 |
| Mick Gallagher | Independent | 3,374 | 3.9 | +1.0 | 3.7 |
| Paul Frederick Graves | Palmer United Party | 2,324 | 2.7 | +2.7 | 2.7 |
| Leighton Thew | Christian Democratic Party | 2,135 | 2.5 | -0.3 | 2.5 |
| Deborah Smythe | Stable Population Party | 492 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.5 |
| Others | 0.1 | ||||
| Informal | 5,096 | 5.9 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Philip Ruddock | Liberal | 59,847 | 69.1 | +2.9 | 69.0 |
| Michael Joseph Stove | Labor | 26,800 | 30.9 | -2.9 | 31.0 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Booths in the sparsely-populated north and west of the seat have been grouped as “north-west”. Booths at the southern end of the seat have been grouped as “south”. Those booths in the east of the seat have been split into “north-east” and “east”.
The Liberal Party won a large majority of the two-party-preferred vote in every area, ranging from 60% in the east to 81% in the north-west.
The Greens vote ranged from 7.3% in the north-west to 14% in the east.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 8.9 | 68.0 | 31,548 | 34.3 |
| North-West | 7.3 | 81.3 | 14,646 | 15.9 |
| East | 14.0 | 60.0 | 13,888 | 15.1 |
| North-East | 13.5 | 61.6 | 6,786 | 7.4 |
| Other votes | 9.7 | 70.5 | 25,010 | 27.2 |
One I’ll be watching on election night – namely to see how much of a personal vote Philip Ruddock will take with him after 43 years.
I remember in neighbouring Mitchell in 2007 there was a 10% swing when the sitting member retired after 30 plus years in parliament. This was double the nsw average, but that was the Ruddslide and the sitting member was knifed. So circumstances are not perfect.
I laugh at that big 72 ALP booth off by itself in the corner XD
My old seat. I doubt Ruddock’s retirement will have much impact. I never noticed Ruddock’s presence, and I lived not far from him in Pennant Hills. (It’s also far from clear, with any given result, how one extrapolates sitting member factors from other factors.)
WoS – that’s Brooklyn/Danger Island. Though I’ve never been there, I gather it’s a bit of an alternative community. You can see it becomes a green 43 in the next diagram.
In fact, it’s Dangar Island.
Brooklyn is the blue 55. Often it also returns a Labor 2PP majority; though obviously not on this occasion.
That 72 ALP booth is Danger Island in the Hawkesbury River near Brooklyn. Some of the smaller northern booths can be won by Labour in good years as can the central Hornsby booths; many of which were redistributed into Bradfield before the 2007 election.
Given Ruddock’s prominent front-bench roles for the bulk of his time as Berowra MP; his local profile is not particularly high. Curiously at the 2007 election, he went within a dozen or so votes of losing his own home booth of Pennant Hills.
His name had currency, especially in the southern parts of the electorate, due to his father being a local councillor, then Hornsby Shire President before becoming the state MP for that area.
Not quite up there with Bradfield, North Sydney, Wentworth, Warringah and Mackellar, but if they really tried hard the Greens could go for 2nd place here.
The Greens don’t seem to be trying particularly hard to pursue 2nd places as much as other elections, so they’ve probably realised from the NSW state election that it doesn’t do them much good.
My prediction: The most interesting thing to watch here on election night is how much of a personal vote Philip Ruddock will take with him after 43 years.