ALP 4.4%
Incumbent MP
Nickolas Varvaris (Liberal), since 2013.
Geography
Parts of the St George and inner west districts of Sydney. Barton covers a majority of the Rockdale council area and parts of Hurstville, Kogarah, Canterbury and Marrickville council areas. The main suburbs include Rockdale, Bexley, Kogarah, Kingsgrove, Brighton-le-Sands, Tempe and parts of Marrickville, Dulwich Hill, Hurstville, Beverly Hills and Carlton.
Redistribution
Barton shifted north, taking in parts of Grayndler south of the Bankstown railway line, including southern Marrickville and Dulwich Hill and all of Tempe. Barton gained Clemton Park from Watson in exchange for areas between Roselands and Kingsgrove. At the southern end, Barton lost Sans Souci, Ramsgate, Beverly Park and Monterey to Cook and gained parts of Hurstville from Banks. These changes significantly changed the seat margin from 0.3% for the Liberal Party to 4.4% for Labor.
History
Barton was created for the 1922 election, and has always covered parts of the St George district. The seat was traditionally a marginal seat between the ALP and the major conservative party. After leaning towards Labor for much of the last twenty years, the Liberal Party regained the seat in 2013.
The seat was originally a notionally Nationalist seat, but was won in 1922 by ALP candidate Frederick McDonald, who defeated Hector Lamond, the sitting Nationalist Member for Illawarra since 1917. The seat of Illawarra had been abolished before the 1922 election.
McDonald lost to Nationalist candidate Thomas Ley at the 1925 election by a bare 60 votes. McDonald challenged the result in court, before he disappeared in mysterious circumstances. It is believed that Ley was responsible for McDonald’s presumed murder.
Ley, who had been a state MP for Hurstville 1917-20 and St George 1920-25, held the seat for one term before losing to ALP candidate James Tully in 1928. Ley went on to move back to England and in 1945 was convicted of killing a barman who he suspected of having an affair with his mistress, and ended up spending the rest of his life in an insane asylum. While it was never proven, he was suspected in the death of McDonald and Hyman Goldstein, who was a rival of Ley’s and state member for Coogee when he fell to his death in 1927.
Tully held the seat for the ALP with a massive margin in 1929. In 1931 Tully was challenged by John Eldridge, the sitting member for the neighbouring seat of Martin. Eldridge had been an ALP member but had joined Jack Lang’s breakaway party. Both Tully and Eldridge lost to UAP candidate Albert Lane.
Lane was reelected in 1934 and 1937, but never by comfortable margins. In 1940, he was defeated by former High Court judge H.V. Evatt, who retired from the judiciary at the age of 46 to run for federal politics. He was elected with a massive majority, which he maintained at the 1943 and 1946 elections.
Evatt served as a minister in the Curtin and Chifley governments, including as Minister for External Affairs. He played a significant role in the creation of the United Nations and served as President of the UN General Assembly in 1948-9.
Evatt held the seat at the 1949 election, when the Liberal Party defeated the Chifley Labor government, and Evatt became Leader of the Opposition. Evatt held Barton by slim margins in 1949, 1951, 1954 and 1955 elections, and moved to the safer seat of Hunter at the 1958 election, which was his last as Labor leader, retiring in 1960.
ALP candidate Leonard Reynolds won Barton in 1958, never holding it by large margins. He lost the seat to Liberal candidate William Arthur in 1966, but won it back in 1969. Reynolds held the seat until his retirement in 1975.
In 1975 the seat was won by James Bradfield (LIB), who held the seat for the entirety of the Fraser government, losing to ALP candidate Gary Punch in 1983.
Punch joined the Hawke ministry in 1988 before resigning from Cabinet in 1989 at protest over decisions about Sydney Airport. He returned to the ministry after the 1993 election, when he increased his margin to 9.4%.
Punch retired in 1996, and was succeeded by Robert McClelland. McClelland held Barton for the next seventeen years, serving as a frontbencher from 1998 to 2012.
McClelland retired in 2013, and Liberal candidate Nickolas Varvaris won the seat in a very tight contest.
Candidates
- Rasmus Torkel (Independent)
- Nickolas Varvaris (Liberal)
- Linda Burney (Labor)
- Sonny Susilo (Christian Democratic Party)
- Brent Heber (Greens)
- Harry Tsoukalas (Online Direct Democracy)
Assessment
Despite the sitting Liberal MP holding Barton, this seat will almost certainly fall to Labor with ease. Varvaris would have had a terribly difficult time holding on to the seat without any change to the boundaries – with the changes moving Barton into very strong Labor areas, and a strong opponent in former Labor state deputy leader Linda Burney, he has no chance of winning. I would expect to see Burney increase the Labor margin in the seat, whether or not Varvaris chooses to stand.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Nickolas Varvaris | Liberal | 33,881 | 42.4 | +1.7 | 38.3 |
| Steve McMahon | Labor | 32,345 | 40.4 | -8.1 | 43.5 |
| Jackie Brooker | Greens | 4,788 | 6.0 | -4.9 | 7.8 |
| Edward Caruana | Palmer United Party | 3,114 | 3.9 | +3.9 | 3.4 |
| Michael Nagi | Independent | 3,071 | 3.8 | +3.8 | 3.3 |
| Kylie Mary French | Christian Democratic Party | 1,549 | 1.9 | +1.9 | 2.1 |
| Perry Theo | One Nation | 686 | 0.9 | +0.9 | 0.6 |
| Rodney Tim Wyse | Katter’s Australian Party | 567 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.6 |
| Others | 0.4 | ||||
| Informal | 10,948 | 13.7 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Nickolas Varvaris | Liberal | 40,245 | 50.3 | +7.2 | 45.6 |
| Steve McMahon | Labor | 39,756 | 49.7 | -7.2 | 54.4 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts. The north covers booths in the Canterbury and Marrickville council area, while the remainder is split into east and west.
Labor won slim majorities in the east (54%) and the west (52%), but won a larger 61% majority in the north.
The Greens vote ranged from 4.7% in the west to 12.9% in the north.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 4.7 | 52.2 | 22,338 | 27.8 |
| East | 5.9 | 54.2 | 17,999 | 22.4 |
| North | 12.9 | 61.1 | 16,792 | 20.9 |
| Other votes | 8.6 | 51.5 | 23,289 | 29.0 |
However hopeless a task the redistribution has made this seat, it’s pretty petulant of Varvaris to threaten running off after one term, not to mention indulgent to take so long to decide.
@DW well given that the AEC has effectively put him out of a job, it isn’t difficult to explain his reaction.
W of S
I disagree completely. The AEC has done what it does. As usual as badly as it does it. However it is Nikki himself who has ended his own political career by acting like a real momma’s boy & big girl’s blouse !!!.
IF & that is a huge IF , he had acted like a MAN he might still have a future, in politics.
Instead he has played the victim . His Momma, & Papa have got all their friend to write to , & plead with the AEC on behalf of their little boy. BTW there were a record number of objections !!!.
[Deleted for lack of relevance]
That’s quite a tangent.
DW
Agreed .
However , It was mean’t to be amusing !!!.
What Greeks do to their children !!!
You ought to be a little more empathetic David !!!
Poor Nikki is suffering Paralysis, not Petulance !!!.
WoS, even if the AEC did him a hard turn (which I guess they did), I don’t see why he wouldn’t stay and fight as hard as he could. If for no other reason, he’d earn plenty of brownie points if he wanted to further his political career or earn preselection for a safer seat.
Exactly. Someone has to run as the Liberal candidate; it might as well be the freshman sitting member.
He stands the best chance of making this a fight. It at least might force Labor to throw resources at the seat. The selection of Burney shows they’re not taking it for granted.
To everyone else here, maybe I’m being more defeatist/pragmatic but I think he simply has no chance. I understand his response (although personally I do not agree, I would stay right until the end) but coming from his perspective, why should he fight for a seat that he is bound to lose and cannot win? He is just wasting his time.
W of S
I believe i already gave you a good explanation of How , Why this little brat , ought to MAN UP !!.
Varvaris is a disgrace. It is a really good thing he will no longer enjoy the privilege of being an elected MP. The only understanding Nikki deserves is the (ultimate) contempt of pity.
I agree Varvaris came across as petulant, but there was really no other place for him to go. I do quite like Linda Burney though, she is intelligent and hardworking, and not too closely assosciated with the Sussex St dodgy deals which are still a black mark around NSW Labor
Ben
If i haven’t been respectful enough in accepting your directions, WRT standards, atmospherics, focus , etc, Fine , & fair enough. I believe i have . I f i have irritated you then of course, i apologise unreservedly.
So after some careful consideration iv’e decided to protest at you deleting part of my post.
I accept that part of the post’s relevance was questionable,( maybe highly so !!). However it was pertinent as part of the discussion on Varvaris’es , inaction, or actions, & motivations.
I would point to the responses from others, & their posts as confirmation of this.
i did think others would find it a genuinely amusing vignette !!!. It really wasn’t that serious.
My intention, was simply to add a little levity, fun, & colour, to our sometimes all too serious discussions
sincerely WD
Winediamond, I’d suggest you have a read of the comments policy. If you want to discuss any further, send me an email.
Lib’s would be better off supporting a friendly independent…
After months of dithering, Varvaris has decided to recontest.
DW
With all the attention on poor little Nikki, no one has noticed Linda Burney. I
have high hopes for this lady. I suspect she left state labor, because she had reached her peak ( deputy leader).
Knowing that she would not get the leadership, Linda then moved on.
I’m confident Linda will receive a shadow ministry, & then maintain a constructive, & conciliatory tone. Making a contribution in this way towards better outcomes, makes a stark contrast to the usual adversarial rubbish we see.
Burney should be an asset to Labor, and with Barton likely to drift further northwards with every redistribution, she should have a safe-ish seat for as long as she wants.
Wonder what convinced Varvaris to recontest. In any case this is a situation where the challenger had a higher and better profile than the incumbent. Burney to hold with a few points in the swing.
PJ
Linda will do much better than that. Varvaris had huge swings to him in the Earlwood areas, as big as 15%. I’d expect all of that to reverse.
MM
Are you aware of the full extent of the development plans, particularly for the inner south ???
50, 000 people just in the waterloo redevelopment according to the SMH , which seems contradictory BTW.
However say it’s 50000 + new voters in total in Sydney, K-S, & Grayndler, over the next 5 years Even that is very conservative as that level of growth has occurred in the last 5 years if we include Wentworth. Roughly speaking this would surely suck Barton over the Cooks river !!!. In effect it would almost be what used to be Grayndler !! Big stuff.
PJ
i’d be very surprised if Linda ddn’t get at least a 7% swing, more likely 10% + . That would in reality only be half of what McLeland had.
Easy gain for Labor. Varvaris worked his butt off in this seat but the combination of a horrible redistribution and the profile of Burney will make this easy.
I will predict that Burney won’t get as much of a vote as McClellend would get, especially as McClellend was a flag-bearer for the NSW Right while Burney is a major ally of Anthony Albanese.
Linda as expected is looking very comfortable in this one.
I’d expect the margin should stay about the same here. Profile of Varvaris and new areas being contested for the first time by a sitting Lib should dampen the general swing.
My prediction: With the redistribution taking away the better Liberal territory around Sandringham and Ramsgate, and into better Labor territory around Marrickville, this will be easily re-gained by Labor.