LIB 16.5%
Incumbent MP
Tony Pasin, since 2013.
Geography
Barker covers southeastern parts of South Australia. It stretches from Mount Gambier in the southeastern corner of the state up to the Murray River and the Barossa Valley.
History
The seat of Barker was first created for the 1903 election, and has been a seat that has consistently voted for Conservative parties. Apart from two terms of the Country Party, the seat has been held by the main non-Labor party since its creation.
It was first won in 1903 by John Langdon Bonython, a Protectionist MP first elected as a member for South Australia at-large in 1901. Bonython retired in 1906 and was replaced by Anti-Socialist candidate John Livingston. Livingston held the seat as a member of the Liberal Party and Nationalist Party before his retirement in 1922.
The seat was won in 1922 by Malcolm Cameron, who was elected as a member of the breakaway Liberal Party, who opposed the leadership of Billy Hughes, but returned to the Nationalists after Hughes deposition. He held the seat until 1934.
The seat was won in 1934 by the Country Party’s Archie Cameron. He served as a minister in the Lyons government from 1937 until Lyons’ death in 1939. After Earle Page refused to serve in government with Robert Menzies, the Country Party replaced Page with Cameron as their leader, and Cameron led the party back into government.
Cameron, however, was replaced by Arthur Fadden as Country Party leader in 1940, and Cameron resigned from the Country Party and joined the United Australia Party. Cameron joined Menzies’ new Liberal Party in 1945 and was elected Speaker of the House in 1949. Cameron remained Speaker and Member for Barker until his death in 1956.
The ensuing by-election was won by Liberal candidate Jim Forbes. He served as a minister in the Liberal government from 1963 until the election of the Whitlam government in 1972.
Forbes retired at the 1975 election, and was replaced by James Porter, who held the seat for fifteen years. He was replaced in 1990 by Ian McLachlan, a former president of the National Farmers Federation. McLachlan served as Minister for Defence for the first term of the Howard government, retiring in 1998.
The seat was won in 1998 by the Liberal Party’s Patrick Secker. He held Barker for the next five terms, retiring in 2013.
Liberal candidate Tony Pasin won Barker in 2013.
Candidates
- James Stacey (Nick Xenophon Team)
- Tony Pasin (Liberal)
- Yvonne Zeppel (Family First)
- Mark Keough (Greens)
- Mat O’Brien (Labor)
Assessment
Barker is traditionally considered a very safe Liberal seat. This could potentially be disrupted by the presence of the Nick Xenophon Team.
Polls
- 52% to NXT – Reachtel commissioned by CFMEU, date unknown
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tony Pasin | Liberal | 48,678 | 52.6 | -2.5 |
| Phil Golding | Labor | 16,993 | 18.4 | -9.6 |
| Kristin Lambert | Family First | 7,368 | 8.0 | +1.8 |
| Richard Sage | Independent | 6,617 | 7.2 | +7.2 |
| Mark Keough | Greens | 5,224 | 5.7 | -3.4 |
| Miles Hannemann | Nationals | 4,021 | 4.4 | +4.4 |
| Balwinder Singh Jhandi | Palmer United Party | 3,623 | 3.9 | +3.9 |
| Informal | 5,259 | 5.7 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tony Pasin | Liberal | 61,571 | 66.6 | +3.5 |
| Phil Golding | Labor | 30,953 | 33.5 | -3.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into five areas. Polling places in the southern city of Mount Gambier have been grouped together. The remainder of the seat has been split into four strips that stretch across the electorate. From north to south, these are North, Murray Mallee, Upper South East and Lower South East.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all five areas, ranging from 56.6% in Mount Gambier to 78.1% in the upper south east.
Nick Xenophon’s Senate vote ranged from 17.6% in Mount Gambier to 29.7% in the north.
| Voter group | XEN % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 29.7 | 65.7 | 25,797 | 27.9 |
| Murray Mallee | 23.7 | 66.6 | 10,959 | 11.8 |
| Lower South East | 19.5 | 66.1 | 9,814 | 10.6 |
| Upper South East | 19.6 | 78.1 | 9,681 | 10.5 |
| Mount Gambier | 17.6 | 56.6 | 8,785 | 9.5 |
| Other votes | 19.4 | 66.6 | 27,488 | 29.7 |
Election results in Barker at the 2013 federal election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Senate votes for the Nick Xenophon group.
Family First seem to often poll well here. Any particular reason why? Is it just where the anti-major party conservative rural vote parks itself here?
In a nationwide survey concerning homophobia, Barker was one of the most homophobic Federal electorates in the country. That is why there is a large Family First vote, the seat is full of religious extremists. South Australia’s deep south.
The low ALP vote here means a very low threshold for NXT to cross into 2nd place. However Tony Pasin is a sophomore so his vote has less potential to fall than in other seats and if he can hold in the mid-40’s he’ll be ok.
The statewide Newspoll shows the Libs -11% statewide and they’ll lose it proportionally, so it should be more in seats where they have a bigger vote (-11% + -3% = -14%). Offset against that, NXT might not gain as much traction out here (+3%) and the sophomore effect for Pasin (+3%). My guess is that’s about -8% which would put him on 44-45%, which should be enough.
However, that’s now and providing NXT dosen’t get a head of steam in the next 4 weeks. At this stage I’d say its in play, with Libs ahead.
Is there really a sophomore effect? I suspect contrary to the conventional wisdom, not
This is a safe non labor seat…… nxt is unlikely to win…….
Barker and Grey will be the least affected by Xenophon, rural areas aren’t his strong suit, he does best with suburban middle class voters, that being said their is no excuse for him not to usurp Labor simply by matter of fact that is one of their worst electorates.
@L96 and MQ I completely agree. The notion that Xenophon would be competitive here is an absolute fantasy – his outreach to rural voters from is severely lacking.
This is safer than Grey….. the fiqures 80/20 and 70/30 seem to be common here
Yes NXT is weaker here in terms of its support than in most of the urban seats. For them to win though will require getting into 2nd place, which should be much easier here than say, Makin. For this reason I think they have a much better chance here than in Makin. I’d rank this as their 4th best chance, after Mayo, Stuart and Boothby. Then would come Kingston, Port Adelaide and Makin, in that order.
Morgan says Lib 37%, ALP 24%, NXT 23%, Greens 7%, “others” 9%.
It seems a little hard to credit both NXT and Labor increasing. If NXT cannibalises from Labor as well as Liberals (as it should), they should easily finish second.
Sample size of 180 per seat is pretty small so the margin or error is likely to be very high. but shows that some of these seats are “in play”.
52-48 to NXT from Reachtel today.
Incredible that this is even a possibility! A huge 84.5% of ALP, GRN & FF voters said they’d pref NXT before Lib.
As I’ve said regarding another seat already, I’d expect this result to be somewhat inflated. There will be people out there who want to send a message to the government, but also don’t want to risk a hung parliament. For these people, saying that they’ll vote NXT when polled is a safe way to send that message… they can then actually vote Liberal in the actual polling booth.
That being said, I’d call this a close race.
People may not be thinking about a hung parliament when the government is incessantly saying it’s got the election in the bag!
most rural of sa seats…… would be surprised if was lost by libs
This area does have a history of electing independents at a state level…
My prediction: Liberal hold, although expect the Xenophon Team to come second, a significant portion of Barker has elected independents at the state level over the last two decades.