Adelaide – Australia 2016

ALP 3.9%

Incumbent MP
Kate Ellis, since 2004.

Geography
Central Adelaide. The seat of Adelaide includes the Adelaide CBD as well as the surrounding suburbs including Unley, North Adelaide, Norwood, St Peters, Prospect, Croydon Park, Hindmarsh and Blair Athol.

History
Adelaide is an original South Australian electorate, having been created for the 1903 election, the first at which single-member electorates were used in South Australia for a federal election. While the ALP has held the seat for a majority of its existence, it has been held by conservative parties for much of this period, including eleven years in the 1990s and 2000s.

Adelaide was first won in 1903 by Protectionist candidate Charles Kingston. Kingston was a former liberal Premier of South Australia who was elected one of South Australia’s seven MPs in 1901 before winning Adelaide in 1903. He was Australia’s first Minister for Trade, but resigned from the ministry in 1903. He was re-elected to Adelaide in 1906 before dying of a stroke in 1908.

The ensuing by-election was won by the ALP’s Ernest Roberts. Roberts served as a minister in Andrew Fisher’s government and was re-elected in 1910 and 1913 before dying suddenly later in 1913. Another by-election in Adelaide was held in early 1914 and was won by the ALP’s Edwin Yates.

Yates was re-elected at the 1914 and 1917 elections, but was defeated in 1919 by Nationalist candidate Reginald Blundell, who had previously been a state MP and minister in the state Labor government before the split over conscription and continued in a conservative government until its defeat in 1918. Blundell only held Adelaide for one term, losing to Yates in 1922. Yates held the seat again for the ALP until 1931.

In 1931 Yates was defeated by United Australia Party candidate Fred Stacey. Stacey held the seat for the UAP until 1943, when an ALP landslide win swept Stacey aside, and Adelaide was won by ALP candidate Cyril Chambers. Chambers served as Ben Chifley’s Minister for the Army following the 1946 election until Chifley’s defeat in 1949.

Chambers remained in Parliament in opposition, although criticism of HV Evatt’s leadership saw him expelled for a year in 1957-8, and by the time he was readmitted it was too late to be preselected for the 1958 election, and he was replaced by the ALP’s Joe Sexton.

Sexton held Adelaide until 1966, when he was defeated by Andrew Jones of the Liberal Party, who was 22 at the time and one of the youngest people ever elected to Australia’s federal parliament. Jones held the seat for one term but lost it in 1969 when the political balance swung back from the Liberal landslide of 1966.

The ALP’s Chris Hurford won the seat in 1969, and held the seat for eighteen years. He served as a minister in the first two terms of the Hawke government before retiring at the end of 1987 to take up the position of Consul-General to New York. His retirement triggered a third Adelaide by-election in February 1988, where a large swing saw the seat lost to Liberal candidate Mike Pratt.

Pratt only held Adelaide for two years, losing to the ALP’s Bob Catley at the 1990 election. Catley lost the seat in 1993 to Trish Worth, who held the seat for the Liberal Party for over a decade. She held the seat at the 1996, 1998 and 2001 election, but lost in 2004 to the ALP’s Kate Ellis, going against the trend of a strong national result for the Liberal Party.

Ellis was re-elected in 2007, 2010 and 2013, and served as a minister in the Labor government from 2007 to 2013.

Candidates

Assessment
Adelaide is a marginal Labor-Liberal seat. While Ellis would likely have no trouble retaining Adelaide in a head-to-head race, the presence of the Nick Xenophon Team created substantial uncertainty – a large NXT vote could eat into Ellis’ primary vote and have a big impact on the result.

2013 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Kate Ellis Labor 38,650 42.3 -1.5
Carmen Garcia Liberal 38,463 42.1 +4.3
Ruth Beach Greens 9,251 10.1 -3.5
Peter Lee Family First 2,169 2.4 +0.2
Vincent Scali Palmer United Party 1,943 2.1 +2.1
Liah Lazarou Socialist Alliance 980 1.1 +0.2
Informal 3,770 4.1

2013 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Kate Ellis Labor 49,338 53.9 -3.6
Carmen Garcia Liberal 42,118 46.1 +3.6
Polling places in Adelaide at the 2013 federal election. Central in green, North in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Adelaide at the 2013 federal election. Central in green, North in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas. Adelaide covers parts of nine local government areas, and they are divided between the three areas in this way:

  • Central – Adelaide, Burnside, Norwood Payneham and St Peters, Walkerville and West Torrens.
  • North – Charles Sturt, Port Adelaide Enfield and Prospect.
  • South – Unley.

The ALP won a large majority (61.7%) in the north, while the other two areas were very close – the ALP won 50.3% in the south, and the Liberal Party won 50.2% in the centre.

The Greens came third, with over 10% in the centre and south and 8% in the north.

Nick Xenophon’s ticket in the Senate polled 24.5% in the north and centre, and 27% in the south.

Voter group XEN % GRN % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
North 24.5 8.1 61.7 26,595 29.1
Central 24.5 10.9 49.8 26,146 28.6
South 27.4 10.6 50.3 15,558 17.0
Other votes 20.8 11.1 52.1 23,157 25.3
Two-party-preferred votes in Adelaide at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Adelaide at the 2013 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Adelaide at the 2013 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Adelaide at the 2013 federal election.
Senate primary votes for the Nick Xenophon group in Adelaide at the 2013 federal election.
Senate primary votes for the Nick Xenophon group in Adelaide at the 2013 federal election.

44 COMMENTS

  1. Ah the hysterical Kate Ellis. What a drama queen !!! No doubt we will be blessed with another few years of her extraordinary performances. Kate could have had a remarkable career as a thespian, she truly missed her true calling !!!. Just think her journo husband might have had a more illustrious career as a theatre critic too !!.
    I wonder how much of the vote XPT will draw, & where from ???

  2. Your repeated personal comments about Labor MPs are getting tedious, do you have anything to say about the election in Adelaide?

  3. Ben
    I’m genuinely sorry to have caused an upset , & so clearly irritated you.
    So i do apologise.
    I am attempting to be tongue in cheek as far as possible & at every opportunity. This is your site & i will respect your directions absolutely.
    I believe my comments about politicians have crossed all party lines .So i am somewhat bewildered why ALP members should escape personal scrutiny ?? However if you say so fine , & fair enough.
    They are people, individuals personalities. Most politicians take themselves very seriously . IMV far, far,far too seriously , & are quite oblivious to how they are seen by the punters , & our small number of “aficionados ” In short most are way short of any” reality check”. Their job is to represent which means communication, most talk, some well, few listen, & even fewer well. Call me harsh.
    They often behave in such a ridiculous way, that no amount of scorn, & ridicule would be sufficient. When praise , & acknowledgement is earned i hope to be first to communicate it. I am eager to find anything positive in our political representation from any quarter. Believe me i am.
    These people are central to the process, & result.
    How can they , & all this not be relevant ?? This is the only question i would like you to respectfully indulge me in please , & at your leisure
    sincerely WD

    PS My post clearly implied Ellis was under no foreseeable threat.
    I did also have a question about the XPT vote which might prove me wrong !!!

  4. This could be a smoky come election night, Ellis should hold, but depending on how well NXT does this could get interesting, along with Boothby, Sturt and Mayo this should be one of their better seats.

  6. kme
    My interpretation of Kevin’s piece is that
    1/ He expects the XPT to poll in the high teens, however if it gets to 22% they are a chance in a few seats.
    2/ 25 % is mayhem !! they will get a few , & are a good chance in a few more.
    3/ He hasn’t allowed for swings, & goes on 2013 numbers Thus in a seat like Adelaide , if the libs were to have a huge swing against them ( from the ALP, & XPT) this could bring a seat like this : ( with a high & close 2 party vote ) into play.
    4/ There is also no allowance for other influences– candidates, local , etc.
    5/ he estimates that both parties will lose a roughly equal share of votes to XPT
    This is the point i disagree strongly with. IMV a far greater % of lib voters will move to XPT, even 30-50 % more.
    If my gut is on the money, then we will really have some fun !!!.

    Ellis may end up losing very little to the XPT IMV. As i feel the labor vote in this sort of seat would be very solid. THE liberal vote far less so. This may tip the scales, maybe a lot.

    What will be fascinating is that XPT is providing an opportunity to assess how solid, or fluid the major party voters really are. IOW what ratio of “rusted ons” they have.

    My guess is that the ALP have a lot more, & even more (% wise) in this seat

  7. Is the XPT some kind of hybrid between Nick Xenophon’s band of merry men and the Bullet Train For Australia party?

  10. Ben
    Thought i might have got it wrong. XPT does SOUND better though !!. I do hope they go like a train !!

  11. Based on the last Senate election it could be a surprisingly competitive seat between NXT and Labor, though I’m not yet convinced that they’ll get the same level of votes without Xenophon himself on the ballot paper and the subs decision would surely help the Lib vote which was diabolical in nearby Sturt prior to Abbott being removed according to the polls. I’d be interested to see some more seat level polling in SA later during the campaign to see where it stands now.

    It’ll also be interesting to see how NXT preferences split at the next election. I would suspect a majority would favour the ALP, though it seems like there is a large number of ‘small-l’ Liberal voters in SA that are attracted to NXT in a similar way to the Democrats before them.

  12. Malcolm
    Do you feel that NXT will pull considerably stronger from the libs, than the ALP ??.
    Particularly in this seat??. I do BTW.
    IF this does not happen NXT will not overtake the libs, so in the end no chance.

  13. Winediamond

    I think in the current climate NXT will probably pull more primaries from the Libs though it’s hard to see that they’ll surpass them on primaries at this stage. Could still leapfrog the Libs from a short distance behind after the penultimate distribution of preferences as you’d expect the majority of Green/Others preference to flow through to NXT before the Libs and ALP.

  14. Boothby and Mayo look like NXT’s best chances, no seat articles for those up yet though. In 2013 the Xenophon Senate ticket polled 28% in those seats as opposed to 24% here and reaching second place in those seats should also be much easier.

  17. As someone who lives in the electorate my perception is that Kate Ellis is a respected local member with a strong personal vote. The “Keep Kate” campaign in 2013 seemed to damped the swing to the Liberals and she has maintained a high profile. The Liberal candidate is also lackluster to say the least. He got a lashing in the local media for comments about how he shopped on the poor end of Prospect Rd or something to that effect. My prediction is Kate Ellis will lift her margin to almost double digits once the votes are counted.

  18. Troy Robinson
    For what you are suggesting to happen the NXT would need to have zero impact.
    This is unlikely.

  19. I think that a combination of Ellis’ popularity and the dismal nature of the Liberal candidate will mean that NXT voters are more likely to preference Ellis. I believe her TPP margin will be between 7-10% after the election. I could be wrong, but I really think her primary vote will hold up and the Liberals will drop. I also don’t think the NXT candidate will poll half as much in the House of Reps count, as the Senate team vote in the seat.

  20. Both Newspoll and Morgan have Labor in third place in South Australia, behind both the Coalition and NXT. While everyone is talking about the Liberal seats at risk, on those numbers Labor must be in some serious trouble in their own middle-class seats like Adelaide and Makin. (I expect NXT to do less well in working class areas like Port Adelaide).

  21. This is looking like Queensland 1998, with a massive breakthrough for a third party. If the two majors preference NXT ahead of each other, there’s the potential for NXT to sweep up nearly everything. Since this now threatens both of them in a big way, I think they might end up doing a deal to try and lock NXT out.

  23. @Peterjk23 that is flawless logic. The only problem being that they would never be able to get away with that like they did with One Nation. One Nation was a party on the far fringes of Australian politics whereas NXT while IMO leand slightly to the left, is for the most part, pretty central on the political spectrum. Locking NXT out would alienate a lot of swinging voters and independents which are crucial to win any election.

    Although you are dead right on the threat that they pose:

    Starting from the safest first, I expect the Libs to have no trouble in both Grey and Barker, while the same holds true for Labor in Port Adelaide. NXT is not going to have much appeal in rural areas while as MM pointed out, the working class vote in PA is solid for Labor.

    I think that Wakefield and Kingston are likely to be retained, although I am not 100% sure about the latter. Kingston was another area where the Democrats polled very well (such as in 1990) but if Rishworth managed to withstand 2013 and avoid some of the much larger swings that ousted her colleagues, then I think it’s unlikely for her to be defeated. This same logic holds true for Sturt.

    Adelaide and Makin (ALP) and Boothby and Hindmarsh (LIB) are all places where NXT *may* do well. Just to clarify, I am not saying that these seats are winnable for NXT, but they are all places where they may poll very highly and possibly, decide the winner.

    Most vulnerable ofc is Mayo however, which I believe is NXT’s only *good* shot at winning a Reps seat. Its history further reinforces this.

  24. Just had a browse through the results from 2013 and I think its safe to eliminate NXT from contention in Adelaide, Hindmarsh, Wakefield and Grey. The Liberal primary is too high in Adelaide and Wakefield and the ALP should be too strong in the other two (in terms of coming 2nd).

    I can see prospects for NXT coming 2nd in the other 7 seats though. In both Barker and Port Adelaide they’ll almost certainly come second, based on the current polling. In both cases the incumbent party gained just over 50% of the primary vote in 2013, which is a little surprising considering how safe they are. In Barker the ALP primary was only 19%, so it won’t be be hard for NXT to get into 2nd and then they could possibly cascade in on preferences.

    I think they are almost certain to gain Mayo and you’d have to favor them in Stuart, given that Pyne is a high profile target and you’d expect a degree of tactical voting from ALP / Greens voters. This could come into play in Boothby as well. In Makin they need to beat the Liberals for 2nd, which is tough, but might be possible, as its one of their stronger seats on the senate overlay that Ben has helpfully provided.

    According to Newspoll the NXT is drawing support fairly evenly from both sides (LIB -11%, ALP -8%, GRN -3%), so it not hard to get an idea of what might happen by referencing the 2013 results. Its also likely as they get more attention, their support will continue to rise, particularly as this is the most issue-less campaign in many years with two bland leaders and no overall feeling for change or divisive issue to drive voters back to the major parties..

  25. Morgan has done seat polling for every SA seat.

    In Adelaide: ALP 29%, Lib 27%, NXT 18.5%, GRN 17.5, “Others” 7.5.

    Try to make sense of those numbers!

  26. If those numbers are accurate then Kate will get over 75% of Green preferences and at least half of NXT preferences which should put her over the line. At least I hope so. We need credible representation in SA.

  27. Troy: Certainly as long as the Liberals stay ahead of NXT in the count then Kate Ellis ought to be safe. But if sufficient Greens and Other preferences flow to NXT before Labor to put NXT ahead of the Liberals, then the danger is Joe Hill being elected on Liberal preferences.

    Those Morgan polls have quite a wide margin of error – if the 180 sample size being bandied around is correct, then the margin of error on the ALP and Liberal numbers is about 6.5%, on the NXT and Green numbers about 5.5% and on the Others number about 4%.

  28. I am scrutineering for Kate on election night – it will be a very interesting election indeed in SA.

  29. KWE – from the Morgan website below. Also the length of time between the start and finish also concerns me. But best we have absent any other polling.

    Roy Morgan has analysed seat-by-seat data in all 11 South Australian seats over the past two months – April-June 2016 and today’s voting results are based on interviews with 1,951 South Australian electors between April 2/3, 2016 and June 11/12, 2016 which is approximately 180 electors per seat analysed.

  30. Troy: Yes, particularly for the scrutineers – you could well find yourself in a position of defending Liberal votes from formality challenges!

  33. Labor has apparently commissioned a ReachTel that actually showed them losing here.

    I personally find it hard to believe that Labor are in genuine trouble here. With NXT likely to poll well, you can fudge the preferences to get pretty much any 2PP your want. I think it’s more likely an attempt to scare Labor-leaning voters away from the NXT with claims it will cost them seats.

  34. Maybe Turnbull has appeal to small-l liberal inner urban voters against the general poll trend just as did Latham in 2004 when Libs lost this seat but overall inclined to agree with Mark.

  35. The poll did demonstrate that Kate has more than a 70% favorability rating in the electorate – with a very low 15% disapproval rating. I believe that voters on polling day will cast their vote with that in mind, despite some misgivings about the Labor brand.

  36. I imagine ALP leaked that poll to scare their soft voters away from Xenophon. That they didn’t disclose the primaries tells me NXT is very close to coming second.

  37. The ALP is running scared. Every seat in SA is now in play. NXT could actually make a clean sweep statewide. Nothing like this has ever happened before and it has the real potential to play havoc with the preferential voting system in the next few years. Only One Nation in Qld in 1998 has come even close to what is about to happen in SA. Watch for the majors to put out new HTV cards on election day preferencing each other.

  38. Both major parties are in a bit of a bind over NXT: they want their opponents’ seats to be threatened, but not their own. I don’t think they know quite what to do about it.

  39. My prediction: Kate Ellis should be safe here, the Liberals shouldn’t bother trying to win Adelaide until she retires. The Nick Xenophon Team could make the margin and preference flows interesting though.

  40. Apparently the Boothby and Hindmarsh seat polls from Galaxy had Labor finishing second (the 2PPs are quoted as Lib vs Lab). So perhaps the NXT factor is receding a little? If so, Ellis should be safe here.

  41. I am becoming increasingly confident of a comfortable win by Ellis. The letterboxing drop this week reminds voters just how woeful the Liberal candidate is – the Libs really have preselected awful candidates in what should be a winnable seat for them in the last couple of elections

  42. Troy Robinson
    I don’t know why you’d be thrilled about a poor lib showing here ??The only possible threat comes from NXT.

  43. I think in this seat the threat is much greater from the Libs than NXT, but we shall see in a couple of nights. At our campaign briefing last night – no one was talking about the NXT candidate being a threat. Our internal polling is showing that Turnball is popular in the southern part of the electorate.

  44. The poll in today’s advertiser is showing the NXT candidate with only 11% of the primary vote and the overall result much the same as the last election. A bit dissapointing as I was hoping Adelaide would revert to safe ALP status after this election.

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