Throsby – Australia 2013

ALP 12.1%

Incumbent MP
Stephen Jones, since 2010.

Geography
Southern Illawarra and Southern Highlands of NSW. Throsby covers parts of Wollongong and Shellharbour councils around Lake Illawarra, including Port Kembla, Dapto and Albion Park. It also includes a distinct areas in the Southern Highlands, covering the most populated parts of Wingecarribee Shire, stretching as far west as the Hume Highway and covering Bowral, Mittagong and Moss Vale.

History
Throsby was first created for the 1984 election, and has always been held by the ALP. It has always been won by the ALP by a large margin, with well over 60% at every election since 1993.

The seat was first won in 1984 by Colin Hollis. Hollis had previously been elected in Macarthur for one term in 1983. Hollis retired in 2001, and was succeeded by former ACTU President Jennie George. George held the seat from 2001 to 2010.

In 2010, Stephen Jones won the seat for the ALP upon Jennie George’s retirement.

Candidates

Assessment
Throsby is a safe Labor seat, and despite the preselection attention it will likely remain that way.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Stephen Jones ALP 42,227 50.53 -7.69
Juliet Arkwright LIB 25,330 30.31 +1.35
Peter Moran GRN 9,973 11.93 +2.99
Alan Hay NAT 4,446 5.32 +5.32
Wayne Hartman NCPP 1,595 1.91 +1.91

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Stephen Jones ALP 51,909 62.11 -4.65
Juliet Arkwright LIB 31,662 37.89 +4.65
Polling places in Throsby at the 2010 federal election. Port Kembla-Dapto in red, Shellharbour in blue, Southern Highlands in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Throsby at the 2010 federal election. Port Kembla-Dapto in red, Shellharbour in blue, Southern Highlands in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas, along local government boundaries. Those polling places in Wingecarribee Shire have been grouped as Southern Highlands. Polling places in the City of Wollongong have been grouped as Port Kembla-Dapto. The remainder is in Shellharbour.

The ALP won large majorities from 68% to 71% in Shellharbour and Port Kembla-Dapto. The Liberal Party won a 56% majority in the Southern Highlands. The Greens vote varied from 11.3% in Port Kembla-Dapto to 12.5% in the Southern Highlands.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Port Kembla-Dapto 11.33 70.64 27,992 33.49
Shellharbour 11.98 68.15 21,163 25.32
Southern Highlands 12.61 43.80 15,818 18.93
Other votes 12.22 57.98 18,598 22.25
Two-party-preferred votes in Throsby at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Throsby at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Throsby at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Throsby at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in those parts of Throsby around Shellharbour and Port Kembla at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in those parts of Throsby around Shellharbour and Port Kembla at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in those parts of Throsby around Shellharbour and Port Kembla at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in those parts of Throsby around Shellharbour and Port Kembla at the 2010 federal election.

27 COMMENTS

  1. Does anyone know why Angry Anderson chose Thorsby? It doesn’t look like the sort of seat he would win in…

  2. I assume Angry thinks he is the type of candidate that can attract some of the working class Port Kembla/Dapto votes while retaining the Southern Highlands.

  3. Possibly it’s the only seat he could get preselected for. The Nats run here but they aren’t really a factor, and it gives them some profile without him being a serious contender for a seat.

  4. With Angry Anderson running for the Nationals, you’d expect him to appeal to voters in this electorate who are usually rusted on Labor voters, but not quite ready to vote Liberal. This leakage of primary votes from Labor to the Nationals will give the Liberal candidate Larissa Mallinson a real boost after preferences. It may be closer than most expect, however I suspect Labor’s Stephen Jones (if preselected) will just win.

  8. I’ve heard that Throsby/Cunningham polling had Labor suffering a roughly 5% swing, which is a lesser swing than found in polling done in Western Sydney, the Central Coast and the Hunter regions, but on par with country NSW. I expect the Illawarra area will hold up better than Sydney or the Central Coast/Hunter region for Labor, as it did in the otherwise disasterous state election.

  9. Via Poll Bludger:

    Stephen Jones has easily retained preselection in Throsby, defeating John Rumble 90-47.

    PJ, the Illawarra wasn’t anything special for Labor in 2011. They kept most of their seats because they had huge margins before. The swings were 24.5% in Wollongong (to an independent; 16.4% 2pp swing to Lib), 18.2% in Shellharbour, 18.2% in Keira and 19.4% in Kiama (the only one they lost). Wollongong was about on the state average, the other three were bigger. I doubt Throsby will swing that hard (the rotten state and local govts which damaged Labor’s reputation so much have already been dealt with), but it could end up quite marginal. I guess it depends on if the locals have gotten over the Wollongong council scandals.

  14. The real question for Gary “Angry” Anderson has been unanswered. This is, if elected, how would he represent the interests of the people of Illawarra and the Southern Highlands?

    According to Angry’s bibliography on Wikipedia, he lives at Beacon Hill. Beacon Hill is near Dee Why.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angry_Anderson

    This northern suburb of Sydney is a long way from Throsby.

  15. I am dissapointed that Mr Anderson, a resident in an area that has very little in common with the Illawarra & southern Highlands, has chosen to stand in the seat of Throsby.
    I’m not sure what he thinks he knows about the electorate that he hopes to represent – as a candidate actually living in Throsby (Dapto) – I find it hard enough to learn all about the huge area that this electorate covers. how on earth can an outsider truly have our interests at heart.
    Politically, I guess its a way to draw the celebrity vote that will then go in preferences to the liberal candidate – nice ploy, aye!
    I am hoping that the voters in Throsby will give a wide berth to him and other candidates who do NOT live in this electorate.

    Brian Boulton
    Candidate for Throsby
    Democratic Labour Party
    http://www.brianboulton.weebly.com/
    email: boulton_brian@yahoo.com.au

  16. Hi Brian

    The main thing is the replacement of the current local ALP member, Stephen Jones. We have endeavoured to make contact with Jones over the previous 3 years. He has avoided us every time – even cancelling a scheduled public meeting at the last moment.
    The focus of everyone should be on the removal of Stephen Jones and the replacement with a better member that represents all of the community.
    The voters will decide on 7 September 2013.

  17. Good morning all,
    I’m standing in our seat for the Palmer United Party, and I’m passionate about getting things right for Throsby. We have been overlooked for too long. I am a former local government councillor and I am keen to represent us strongly in Canberra with the Palmer United business friendly and family friendly policies. I will be ‘out and about’ next week speaking to as many people as possible. Have a look at the website http://www.palmerunited.com or email me on may.king@bigpond.com
    Have a good day, May King

  18. Good to see this thread has become a circle jerk for no-hoper candidates. Exactly what this page needs more of.

  19. What we need in Australian politics is more respect. Everyone has the right to stand for their electorate. It does take a fair amount of courage, but to stand up and be counted is preferable to complaining in the background. A bit surprised at some comments being unmoderated. Everyone has the opportunity to run. It is Australia, and we are a democracy. Have a good day

  22. Hey John – I don’t know why Mr Jones would avoid you or the people that you represent.
    I would take any opportunity to speak with people about the issues at hand and about what concerns residents of my electorate.
    And yes, of course, I’m keen on having Mr Jones replaced at this election …….. by me 🙂

    The DLP has its origins in traditional labor values and has tried to stay true to those values as they relate to our modern society.

    Regards
    Brian

  24. If you want to know what the candidates think come along to the election forum at the Robertson Bowling Club, Thursday August 29, 10am, and ask a question. Or listen live on 97.3 FM ABC Illawarra.

  25. Unfortunately the ABC Illawarra are selective in who they chose to invite.

    It is a shame that the ABC does not invite all candidates.

    It would have provided a more balanced view.

    At the Woonona forum held two days previously for Cunningham, the NCPP(EP) was only invited after the Liberal Party candidate chose not to attend. The ABC said that they did not have enough microphones to invite our party in the first instance. I find that this is hard to believe

    John Flanagan
    Non-Custodial Parents Party (Equal Parenting)

  26. Good luck people don’t care who wins as long as labor learn a lesson that safe seats aren’t safe and though angry probably wont win I welcome him as a candidate as if we are going to get rid of jones we need people who are known and respected to run an ideal situation would be if the people of Throsby could see that the world isn’t going to end if we get anyone other than labor its funny though you put homer simpsons face on a labor how to vote sheet in this area and labor would still probably win. the sad thing is the people of the area are sick of the circus that is labor yet they will still blindly vote labor because of the myths of labor being for the workers and that’s what they have always voted. If only they could see the benefits of giving someone else a turn at the wheel.

  27. I agree that I hope Throsby is the winner on the day. If Palmer United is given ‘a turn at the wheel’ we will do our very best.

Comments are closed.