Shortland – Australia 2013

ALP 12.9%

Incumbent MP
Jill Hall, since 1998.

Geography
Lake Macquarie and Central Coast regions of New South Wales. Shortland covers the suburbs of Lake Macquarie council on the eastern shore of Lake Macquarie, as well as northeastern suburbs of Wyong LGA. Key suburbs include Belmont, Charlestown, Gateshead, Swansea, Budgewoi and Lake Munmorah.

History
Shortland was created in 1949, and has always been a safe Labor seat, with the ALP polling over 60% at every election except for six elections when the Liberal Party polled very well nationally (1966, 1975, 1977, 1996, 2001, 2004).

The seat was first won in 1949 by the ALP’s Charles Griffiths, an official for the Australian Railways Union. Griffiths held the seat for the entirety of the 1950s and 1960s, and retired in 1972. He was replaced in 1972 by Peter Morris. Morris served as a junior minister from the election of the Hawke government in 1983 until he was promoted to Cabinet in 1988. He was dropped from Cabinet in 1990 due to lack of factional support and retired in 1998.

The seat was won in 1998 by Jill Hall, who had been elected to the state seat of Swansea in 1995. Hall has held the seat for five terms.

Candidates

Assessment
Shortland is a safe Labor seat.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jill Hall ALP 44,987 53.74 -2.99
Deborah Narayanan LIB 27,758 33.16 +2.04
Phillipa Parsons GRN 8,646 10.33 +2.03
Milton Alchin ON 1,726 2.06 +2.06
Peter Williams SEC 596 0.71 +0.71

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jill Hall ALP 52,612 62.85 -1.89
Deborah Narayanan LIB 31,101 37.15 +1.89
Polling places in Shortland at the 2010 federal election. Belmont in green, Charlestown in orange, Swansea in yellow, Wyong in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Shortland at the 2010 federal election. Belmont in green, Charlestown in orange, Swansea in yellow, Wyong in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. From north to south, these are Charlestown, Belmont, Swansea and Wyong. The “Wyong” area covers those polling places in Wyong Shire, with the remaining polling places in the City of Lake Macquarie.

The ALP won a majority in all areas, varying from 60.4% in Belmont to 65% in Wyong. The Greens vote varied from 8.4% in Wyong to 12.4% in Charlestown.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Charlestown 12.44 62.92 23,972 35.80
Wyong 8.41 64.98 18,730 27.97
Belmont 9.27 60.41 15,196 22.69
Swansea 9.63 64.46 9,063 13.53
Other votes 10.79 61.71 16,752 25.02
Two-party-preferred votes in Shortland at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Shortland at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Shortland at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Shortland at the 2010 federal election.

15 COMMENTS

  1. Will make a bold prediction and call this one as a Liberal gain. Word is Jill Hall and Labor are very concerned of losing here. Liberal candidate John Church is working very hard in the electorate, showing up to everything. Also having a State Liberal MP in Garry Edwards assists the Liberals campaign for Shortland greatly.

  3. Probably the most possible of the Hunter seats to fall, particularly if the Liberal Party performs as well as it did in areas such as Charlestown as the 2011 State Election (approx 60% of the 2PP vote to the Libs in Charlestown from memory which overlaps). I can’t see why it won’t be close. Less likely to see Lib gains where there are high profile candidates such as Fitzgibbon and Combet. Some internal polling in the Hunter shows large swings.

    A well known Lib candidate here doesn’t hurt.

    If one believes this election will see seats fall that have never fallen before, I reckon this would be high on the list of possibilities.

  4. This will remain with the Labor by at least 5%, word is the Liberals are not that keen on their high profile candidate, also local member is well respected by the community.

    The State Members that cover the different parts of this Federal seat have disappointed the local community and the word is they do not want to make the same mistake.

  5. Don’t know where you are getting you info from RC, but internal polling really doesn’t support your hypothesis. There is a large swing on in the Hunter area. I predict one of the 4 Hunter seats to go. Not sure which one.

  6. I think the only Hunter seat that may go is Newcastle because of a new candidate, the other 3 will definately remain Labor and Shortland was and probably still will be the safest of the seats.

    There is a few months to go and I dont things are going to improve for the Liberals, Abbott is going to have to start fronting the media and people will pretty quickly what sort of bloke he is, the Libs have hid him away from media for the last couple of years.

  7. RC sounds a bit like a Labor supporter to me. You’d think that considering the three state seats that lie within the federal seat of Shortland are Charlestown, Wyong and Swansea (all of which were Liberal gains in 2011) then the Liberal Party would be favourites in Shortland.

  8. Electionlova sounds a bit Liberal to me. It is safe to say that Swansea and Wyong will be Labor seats following the next state election, following the performance of O’Farrell and also the local members both of who are missing in action for a large part of the time, Swansea was only won by the Liberals because of an independent and would have stayed on the Labor side had it not been for the independent taking votes.

    Charlestown had a large swing at the election partly due to a poor State Member who was not doing the work, the new Liberal Member for Charlestown whilst doing little real work in terms of helping his constituents with State issues, does get his face in the media smiling for the camera and appearing to do things.

    So yes there are Liberal State Members, but that may work against the Libs, that and the fact that their candate is arrogant.

  9. DB, & electionlova
    i’m with you on this one. Agree with all your reasons, & i’ll add some too.
    1/ Jill Hall actually didn’t go backwards much in 2010. Amazing !!!.
    2/ Orkopoulos How did labor escape a hammering over that scumbag
    3/ Craig Thompson will amplify delayed hammering over Labor stench ie Orkopoulos, Nsw state govt etc,etc,etc.
    4/ Feels like a more volatile electorate than Newcastle, with lower Green vote.

  10. winediamond – cheers. Good to see you around mate. I reckon this and Newcastle are in danger for Labor. If Fitzgibbon didn’t stand, I’d say Hunter would go over the lot.

  11. DB
    Thanks, much appreciated. Would you like to come to my election night party ??. Have a bottle of 1990 Dom ready for Julia’s speech !!!. Although it seems all my plans might have to change because of that infamous party-pooper (he whose name shall not be spoken!!!)

  12. DB
    Agree with you about Hunter. Here is a conspiracy theory for you, post election,mind you.
    Rudd is great mates with Katter. If his lust for vengeance is unsatiated , or he is simply not given a position of sufficient eminence , he goes KAP. Would Katter offer him no 1 on the 2017 KAP senate ticket in exchange ??. A very high price, on first glance.
    However what if Rudd could offer more, such as Joel F ,& Hunter, & a few others.
    Conclusion :
    The ALP starts to look like Germany in 1945 – smashed ,flattened,,diminished, & divided up amongst the victors
    WRT Hunter if the ALP lose Hunter, they might never get it back.

  13. Winediamond you can wake up now, regardless of what you want to dream, Rudd will not leave the Labor Party, unlike many on the Opposition he believes in the Labor Party and what it stands for.

    The Liberals have an inexperienced candidate running in Shortland who does not even understand the electoral system, he thinks that he only needs a 7% swing to win the seat, he actually needs a swing of 12.9%.

    Whilst there will be a swing it will not be 12.9% so Church can go back to doing his adds with his bird on his shoulder.

  15. Swing will be minimal in Shortland I think now, Rudd has changed things across the country and the Liberals will be running no campaign in Shortland, it will be up to Church to spend his own money because the Liberals have other more winable seats they will focus on.

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