Maranoa – Australia 2013

LNP 22.9%

Incumbent MP
Bruce Scott, since 1990.

Geography
Southwestern Queensland and the Darling Downs. Maranoa covers a large part of southern Queensland, stretching from Toowoomba council area (although not the city of Toowoomba itself) along the NSW border, all the way to the South Australian and Northern Territory borders. Major towns include Kingaroy, Nanango, Warwick, Dalby and Roma.

History
Maranoa is an original federation electorate, covering rural parts of southern Queensland. The seat was first held by the ALP, but has been held by the Country Party and its successors since 1921, only losing Maranoa at one election.

The seat was first won in 1901 by the ALP’s James Page. Page held the seat until his death in 1921.

The 1921 by-election was won by James Hunter, standing for the newly-formed Country Party. Hunter served as a minister in the Lyons government from 1934 to 1937, and retired in 1940.

Maranoa was won in 1940 by the ALP’s Frank Baker, a former school teacher and father of former MP Frank Baker Jr, who had died in 1939. The elder Baker held Maranoa for one term, losing to the Country Party’s Charles Adermann in 1943. Adermann retained Maranoa in 1946 before moving to the new seat of Fisher in 1949. He served as a minister from 1958 until 1967, and retired in 1972.

The Country Party’s Charles Russell won Maranoa in 1949, but fell out with his party in 1950 and contested the seat as an independent in 1951, losing to the Country Party’s Wilfred Brimblecombe. Brimblecombe held the seat until his retirement in 1966.

James Corbett won Maranoa for the Country Party in 1966, holding it until 1980. He was succeeded in 1980 by Ian Cameron, also of the National Country Party.

Cameron retired in 1990, and the National Party’s Bruce Scott won the seat, and he has held it ever since, now as a member of the Liberal National Party.

Candidates

  • John Spellman (Family First)
  • Nick Cedric-Thompson (Labor)
  • Grant Newson (Greens)
  • Bruce Scott (Liberal National)
  • George Clouston (Rise Up Australia)
  • John Bjelke-Petersen (Palmer United Party)
  • Rowell Walton (Katter’s Australian Party)

Assessment
Maranoa is a very safe LNP seat.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Bruce Scott LNP 57,100 65.52 +7.00
Geoff Keating ALP 17,398 19.96 -9.94
Charles Nason IND 4,597 5.28 +5.28
Grant Newson GRN 4,490 5.15 +1.94
Greg McKay FF 3,560 4.09 +0.35

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Bruce Scott LNP 63,520 72.89 +8.83
Geoff Keating ALP 23,625 27.11 -8.83
Polling places in Maranoa at the 2010 federal election. Dalby in blue, Kingaroy-Crows Nest in yellow, Roma in red, South in orange, South-East in green, West in light blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Maranoa at the 2010 federal election. Dalby in blue, Kingaroy-Crows Nest in yellow, Roma in red, South in orange, South-East in green, West in light blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into six areas. Polling places in Dalby and Roma council areas were grouped by local government areas. Balonne and Goondiwindi council areas have been grouped together as ‘South’.

Polling places in Toowoomba council area have been split into two areas. Those in the south have been combined with those in Southern Downs as “South-East”. Those in the north have been combined with South Burnett as “Kingaroy-Crows Nest”. The remainder of the booths have been combined as “West”, in an area that makes up a majority of the seat’s geographical area but a small minority of the population.

The LNP won a majority in all six areas, ranging from 64.3% in Kingaroy-Crows Nest to 77.4% in Dalby.

Voter group GRN % IND % LNP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
South-East 6.55 4.61 70.81 18,380 21.09
Kingaroy-Crows Nest 7.85 6.23 64.27 12,459 14.30
Dalby 4.12 5.06 77.35 12,055 13.83
West 2.91 2.62 68.75 7,757 8.90
South 3.23 4.13 72.69 6,368 7.31
Roma 3.07 12.69 75.60 4,885 5.61
Other votes 4.87 5.06 77.33 25,241 28.96
Two-party-preferred votes in Maranoa at the 2010 federal election. Click to enlarge.
Two-party-preferred votes in Maranoa at the 2010 federal election. Click to enlarge.
Two-party-preferred votes in southeastern parts of Maranoa at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in southeastern parts of Maranoa at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Kingaroy at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Kingaroy at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Warwick at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Warwick at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Stanthorpe at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Stanthorpe at the 2010 federal election.

17 COMMENTS

  2. Only 38 votes, but still, very incredible! The booth in question is a small town called Eumamurrin.

  6. John Bjelke-Petersen (son of Joh), is running for Palmer’s party… this just got interesting. He ran for Nanango twice against Dorothy Pratt, an ex-One Nation independent MP, but couldn’t win (the LNP had to wait until Pratt retired before the 2012 landslide). The comments on this article are pretty interesting too – not a high opinion of BP Jr.

    http://www.theage.com.au/queensland/bjelkepetersen-joins-palmer-partys-list-of-candidates-20130607-2nu4u.html

  8. “Might”? Of course he’ll beat the Greens, and he’ll have a good chance of beating Labor as well. KAP apparently haven’t found a candidate here yet, so he may well come second. I doubt he’ll win… he’d need to take 20% off the Nats (possible), then hope the hardcore Labor voters of western Qld want to preference someone named Bjelke-Petersen (less likely). It’ll be an interesting diversion, though – the first serious challenger to Bruce Scott since One Nation in 1998.

  9. One Nation at its peak grabbed 23% of the vote here. if Katter and Palmer add up to 23% it won’t be enough.

    Secondly John Bjelke-Petersen has run for Nanango as National and as an LNP candidate and lost on both occasions. If he can’t win with that last name in the state seat that is Joh’s heartland it really says something about his campaigning and his reputation in the local community.

    He will not win Maranoa, the LNP will retain it.

  10. That’s quite a coup for Palmer in this part of the country. JBP may well be the best performing Palmer candidate, though I agree, the Nats should still win comfortably on primary votes. Interesting to see if Katter’s mob lets this seat be or lets JBP have a clear run.

  14. It’s only a little issue, but it’s not Clive Palmer’s United Party, it’s the Palmer United Party.

Comments are closed.