Lingiari – Australia 2013

1. Tina MacFarlane is running for the Country Liberals, and Warren Snowdon has been endorsed to stand again for Labor. Should be very interesting considering Snowdon has such a high personal vote plus the NT Government not being very popular. Will be a close call.

2. The Liberal Party has signed up many Aboriginal elders and communities in this seat to help with better indigenous/white relations. I think Snowden will probably lose this one. Abbott is not unpopular in these parts.

3. Will be a National Party win

4. ohhh I would not be too sure……on territory election figures would be non labor…..
   but @ territory level Alice Springs is reliably non labor…..last fed election Mr Snowdon won Alice Springs.But I just don’t know

5. Typo – Greens candidate last time was Barbara Shaw – an Indigenous woman standing on strong opposition to the intervention – reflected in the Greens vote around Alice Springs

6. Yes, probably one of the hardest seats to predict although would have to say the Libs have a strong chance here.

7. Thanks Doug, I’ve fixed the typo.

8. Hard call, this one.
   Tony Abbott apparently tried to convince Alison Anderson, the Labor-cum-Independent-cum-CLP member of the Northern Territory Parliament, to run against Warren Snowdon – barely months after she’d become a minister in the newly-elected CLP Government led then by Terry Mills. He apparently wanted an Aboriginal woman in the Coalition ranks in Federal Parliament.
   Although such a move would’ve meant an Aboriginal woman having to win seat off another party, rather than being foisted in a safe seat, a la Nova Peris, Abbott’s approach to Anderson looked too much like tokenism.
   Snowdon has been around a very long time and would seem hard to dislodge, although his seat is not safe and he previously lost it in the anti-Keating landslide of 1996.
   Still, I’m tipping Snowdon to lose, in a close one.

9. Mr Trevor Hedland, who is the Executive Director of National Aboriginal Solutions has been chosen to contest Lingiari for Palmer’s United Party.

10. Expect PUP to poll okay here. If preferences flow to the Libs as Palmer has indicated, then could be hard for Labor to hold onto. I’d put this one in the Lib camp at the moment and we won’t have any idea until election night.

11. DB
    Will be classed as a Nat win – not a lib win

12. I know that DB thinks that this is a good possibility for a CLP win, that would make sense based on last years Territory election but I really do wonder? What would be the chances that both NT seats are lost by their incumbents this election?

13. Exactly, you’d have to be a fool to base a federal result in the NT based on the territory elections. Most people vote one way at a territory level and the other at the federal level

14. Seems to be a northern-Australia trait, because Queensland has a tendency to do that, too.

    Anyway, it’s worth noting that DB’s comment came before the switch to Rudd, and at that time, Solomon didn’t look like it was going to be an ALP gain, either. With the switch, ALP have improved in both seats, and I’d suggest that this is now likely a retain, and Solomon a possible gain for Labor.

15. Glen, actually my ref to DB was due to what he wrote about Lingiari in answer to a Solomon query I had a couple of days ago. I should have mentioned that, and perhaps I read to much into his brief reply.

16. I am becoming more confident of a CLP gain.

17. How can you be confident of any CLP gain in this territory

18. Observer – from what I am hearing, Aboriginal communities are rallying behind Abbott. That is not good news for Snowden.

19. If KAP runs here I think they cold mirror primary votes they received in North Queensland during the state election with a good candidate. I honestly believe the CLP will do badly, having Nova Peris as a candidate, the only indigenous candidate in the NT for either side isn’t going to help Abbott and the CLP and what you hear and what internal polls say are always different on Election Day which is why at every NT election they say it will be close

20. This post on PB proves that some in Lingiari are being polled in a seat where polling some communities must be difficult. So we may see some seat specific polling or at least some NT specific polling in the next day or two;

    “Just Me Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 2:51 pm | PERMALINK
    For what it is worth, I am in Lingiari and just got robo-polled by ReachTel (I think it was). As best I can recall the questions were:

    1. Who gets your primary vote? Labor or Liberal?
    2. Who would make the better PM? Rudd or Abbott?
    3. Regardless of who you will vote for, who do you think will win the election? Labor or Liberal?
    4. Which of the following is the most important election issue for you?
    – Asylum seekers
    – Cost of living
    – Leaders
    – Education
    – Economy
    – Environment
    5. Which party can best handle the asylum seekers? Labor or Liberal?
    6. Which party can best handle the economy? Labor or Liberal?
    Finishing off with a couple of demographic questions about my age and gender.”
    #1488 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/08/03/seats-of-the-week-swan-and-dawson/?comment_page=30/#comments

21. Aboriginal elders indicate that Abbott received the most incredible reception of any political leader ever yesterday. Hard to rely on polls in Lingiari but this looks like being a CLP gain based on support from Aboriginal communities.

22. CLP won a lot of outback seats when they swept to power – this will surprise a lot of analysts on election night I think.

23. AC – I think the Coalition will win this. Mundine supporting Abbott will have a big impact.

24. Nah Lingiari will stay labor, especially with Peris as a candidate standing for election

25. Greens pick Shaw to run again, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-12/rockabilly-royalty-adds-grunt-to-greens-campaign/4880126

26. Observer – Isn’t Peris running in the Senate – We’ve seen seats support one party in the House and another in the senate before. I honestly can’t predict Lingiari. While my gut instinct is to say that it would stay with Labor, the swing at the Territory election, particularly in aboriginal communities can not be ignored. Definitely one to watch.

27. Yes but she’s brand labor, face of the ALP in the bush which they will respond better to then Tina McFarland

28. Observer – I understand, but you realise the ALP brand is stuffed. In the debate Rudd didn’t refer to the ALP on one occasion, whereas Abbott referred to the LNP on 12 occasions. If that doesn’t demonstrate current branding positions of both parties, then nothing will.

29. I wouldn’t trust any poll in this seat as about 42% of the seat is made up of indigenous communities. Mind you, I have seen nothing on this seat.

30. DB the liberals accuse labor of talking about themselves too much, that being brand labor so which is it? Going by your measure of aboriginal people immediately voting for a party because they have an aboriginal person in it, you’d have to admit being a senator is more prestigious then being an advisor

31. But I thought a lot of indigenous communities respected Trish Crossin and were annoyed by the token appointment of Peris. So her being on the Senate ticket may not be enough for Snowden.

32. Well if Crossin was respected her primary wouldn’t have taken such a dive at the last election. Snowmen has a huge incumbency and is widely respected and will probably win

33. anyone know where Peter and Trevor’s preferences are going?

34. I think Nova Perris will actually be a drag on Labor here because she is a prime example of the debarcle that was the Gillard Leadership. Trish Crossin certainly won’t be helping and the fact that Warren Mundine has supported Abbott in the past puts this seat in play big time.

    I would say the CLP are slightly in front but it is game-on.

35. Barbara Ward from Alice Springs, campaigner against the Intervention is running for the Greens again and polled around strongly in the centre and outback.

36. Two things working against ALP here:
    1. ALP overperformed in urban (white) areas last time due to news breaking during the campaign of an AVO against the then CLP candidate.
    2. CLP will now have 4 Indigenous sitting members to help them get out the vote.

    Balance this against problems within CLP Government, fact that CLP candidate is non-indigenous this time and that Snowdon has had a wake up call and will no doubt be taking the campaign more seriously.

37. After thinking that both NT seats would swap, it appears that they both will be retained by their incumbents. Snowden ahead here on counting updated a few hrs ago, http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-17496-306.htm

38. This is a potential gain for the Country Liberals next election I’d expect. On 0.9% and a very likely chance that Warren Snowdon will retire will provide the Libs with their best chance of picking this one up. Snowdon did well to hold onto it this time, much of his success is his personal vote in the bush.

39. Electionlova
    Do you know the story about Warren & the Commonwealth jet he used for the dog race in Sydney?? For years every time he spoke in parliament, the coalition members would howl

40. I think the CLP have claimed Lingiari as a potential win at nearly every election

41. That would be factually incorrect Observer, but what’s new?

42. No they claim every seat because there is only 2 and no polling in the NT that can be completely reliable…

43. Abbott must be humiliated by the CLP campaign. Based on the results, Namatjira, Stuart, Arnhem and Arafura would all go massively to labor with swings of over 30% in some seats. In one part of Alison Anderson’s seat, there was a swing to labor of over 50%! At the 2010 election, the bush turned away from labor and delivered the CLP government. Alot say federal results are a good indicator for the NT. CLP face a wipeout in the bush seats they won off labor

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