ALP 3.2%
Incumbent MP
Wayne Swan, since 1998. Previously 1993-1996.
Geography
Northern Brisbane. Lilley covers most of the northern corner of the City of Brisbane, including the suburbs of Chermside, Stafford, McDowall, Wavell Heights, Nudgee, Taigum, Deagon, Sandgate, Zilllmere and Nundah. The seat also covers Brisbane Airport, which substantially increases the land area covered by Lilley, without much of a resident population.
History
The seat of Lilley was first created at the 1913 election. The seat has a history of moving between Labor and conservative parties, although it has shifted gradually towards the ALP, only falling to the Liberals at their peak.
The seat was first won in 1913 by Liberal candidate Jacob Stumm. He retired at the 1917 election.
The seat was then won by Nationalist candidate George Mackay. Mackay held the seat for 17 years. After the new United Australia Party won the 1931 election, Mackay was elected Speaker, and served in that role until his retirement at the 1934 election.
Lilley was then won by the UAP’s Donald Charles Cameron, who had previously held Brisbane from 1919 until his defeat in 1931. He only held Lilley for one term before retiring.
In 1937, the UAP’s William Jolly was elected to Lilley. Jolly had been the first Lord Mayor of the Greater Brisbane City Council. Jolly held the seat for two terms, but lost the seat in 1943 to the ALP’s James Hadley.
Hadley was the first Labor member for Lilley, and held it until his defeat in 1949. The seat was then held by Liberal MP Bruce Wight.
Wight held the seat until 1961, when he was defeated by the ALP’s Donald James Cameron. He only held the seat for one term, losing to Kevin Cairns from the Liberal Party in 1963. Cairns served as a junior minister under William McMahon from 1971 to his defeat at the 1972 election, losing to the ALP’s Frank Doyle. Cairns won the seat back at the next election in 1974 and held it until his defeat in 1980.
The ALP’s Elaine Darling won Lilley in 1980. She managed to win re-election in 1983, 1984, 1987 and 1990, and was the first Labor MP to hold Lilley for more than two terms.
Darling retired in 1993, and was succeeded by Wayne Swan, the Secretary of the Queensland ALP. Swan lost the seat in 1996 to the Liberal Party’s Elizabeth Grace, but won it back in 1998. He joined the Opposition shadow ministry in 1998 and rose to the top of the party, becoming Treasurer after the election of the Rudd government in 2007.
In 2010, Wayne Swan became Deputy Prime Minister. At the 2010 election, Swan’s margin in Lilley was cut from 8% to 3.2%.
Candidates
- James Ryan (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Nick Forster (Greens)
- Benedict Figueroa (Palmer United Party)
- Rod McGarvie (Liberal National)
- Wayne Swan (Labor)
- Allan Vincent (Family First)
- Nick Contarino (Citizens Electoral Council)
Assessment
The seat of Lilley is very marginal, and will be a prize target for the Liberal National Party. Swan has held the seat for a long time and has a strong presence in the area. It won’t be easy for the LNP to gain the seat.
2010 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Rod McGarvie | LNP | 35,835 | 41.22 | +2.39 |
| Wayne Swan | ALP | 35,724 | 41.09 | -10.19 |
| Andrew Jeremijenko | GRN | 10,579 | 12.17 | +5.81 |
| Andrew Herschell | FF | 2,696 | 3.10 | +1.32 |
| Douglas Crowhurst | IND | 2,111 | 2.43 | +2.43 |
2010 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Wayne Swan | ALP | 46,234 | 53.18 | -4.77 |
| Rod McGarvie | LNP | 40,711 | 46.82 | +4.77 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas: Central, East, North and South.
The ALP won majorities in three of those areas, varying from 52% in the centre to 59.7% in the north. The LNP won a slim 50.3% majority in the south.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 11.83 | 49.72 | 26,752 | 30.77 |
| Central | 11.02 | 52.06 | 17,908 | 20.60 |
| East | 12.98 | 57.36 | 13,475 | 15.50 |
| North | 15.28 | 59.73 | 9,403 | 10.81 |
| Other votes | 11.61 | 52.89 | 19,407 | 22.32 |
Further setback for Labor according to Sports Bet.
Currently, Sports Bet odds in Lilley shows support for Labor drifts from $1.60 to $1.67 whilst support for the LNP remains steady at $2.10.
The longer this election gets, the tighter the odds on this seat are getting. Remember that Swanny won this seat on the back of Green Preferences. The questions will be the swing on the ALP and the Greens.
From what I remember the Ascot/Hamilton part of Lilley was redistributed to Brisbane for the 2010 election. This enabled Gambaro to gain Brisbane. Before Gillard was dumped it was said to be a LNP gain. With the Rudd Gloss falling off this will be the most interesting seat in Qld on September 7.
The first I have seen of polling here in this campaign. Surprisingly, the LNP are polling a couple of points higher than the last election, Labor and Greens down and others up. This seat could be in the air if polling continues to trend as it is.
DB – Is the combined ALP/Green vote down just a bit or a lot?
Bear – 4-5% combined roughly.
If most of the other is PUP then I would expect a strong preference flow to the LNP. If Rudd gets a bit of momentum going before polling day then Swan might just get there. No wonder the odds are closing.
Bear – I doubt that most of the “other” is PUP. They are undoubtedly a notable portion of it, but I’d say that, in this seat, it will be split fairly evenly between KAP, PUP, and FF (with a small fraction for the CEC).
Not knowing how KAP or PUP will preference in the seat makes it difficult, but either way I’d expect some leakage. FF preferences tend to split 60/40 in LNP favour. Greens preferences tend to split 80/20 in ALP favour. If we suppose that PUP and KAP both ended up going 70/30 in LNP favour (mid-range), then we can estimate the chances.
ALP + Green, assuming a 2% swing against each on primary vote, bring Swan to 47% after Green preferences. If we assume “others” swing 2% in favour, bringing the “other” total to 7.5%, and assume a three way split between PUP, KAP, and FF (and ignore CEC), then FF preferences bring Labor to 48%. KAP and PUP preferences then slightly favour the Liberals more, and leave Labor at 49.5% 2PP. If the swing to the “others” is stronger (and I suspect it will be), then Labor can still come out ahead on this estimation; with “others” at 9% (and Libs gaining only 0.5% on primary vote), it’s a 50/50 split.
If either KAP or PUP preferences Labor, then the path for Swan is much easier. With “others” at 7.5%, and assuming a 70/30 split in favour of the preferenced party for each of KAP and PUP, Swan comes out ahead with 50.5% 2PP.
Another blow to Labor according to Sports Bet.
Currently, Sports Bet odds in Lilley shows support for Labor eases from $1.67 to $1.75 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $2.10 to $2.00.
DB, these odds reflect the recent polling mentioned by you recently that this seat is too close too call.
Improvement for Labor according to Sports Bet.
Currently, Sports Bet odds in Lilley shows support for Labor firms from $1.75 to $1.60 whilst support for the LNP drifts from $2.00 to $2.20.
Setback for Labor according to Sports Bet.
Currently, Sports Bet odds in Lilley shows support for Labor slips from $1.60 to $1.67 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $2.20 to $2.10.
Support for the Coalition according to Sports Bet.
This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Lilley shows support for Labor eases from $1.67 to $1.70 whilst support for the LNP firms from $2.10 to $2.05.
Further blow to Labor according to Sports Bet and Centrebet.
This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Lilley shows support for Labor drifts from $1.70 to $1.80 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $2.05 to $1.95. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor slips from $1.45 to $1.55 whilst support for the LNP firms from $2.50 to $2.30.
JWS poll shows the LNP ahead of Labor by 54/46.
Swan’s gone.
Another blow to Labor according to Centrebet.
This afternoon, Centrebet odds in Lilley shows support for Labor eases from $1.55 to $1.70 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $2.30 to $2.05.
Sportsbet.com.au now $1.85 each of two
LNP are the favourites according to Centrebet.
This afternoon, Centrebet odds in Lilley shows support for Labor drifts from $1.70 to $2.00 whilst support for the LNP firms from $2.05 to $1.75.
Internal polling now showing a swing to the Coalition from 2010 numbers.
does the internal polling show a LNP gain?
More bad news for Labor according to Centrebet.
Currently, Centrebet odds in Lilley shows support for Labor slips from $2.00 to $2.12 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.75 to $1.65.
More momentum for the Coalition according to the betting sites.
This morning, Sports Bet odds in Lilley shows support for Labor eases from $1.85 to $2.25 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.85 to $1.55. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor drifts from $2.12 to $2.35 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.65 to $1.53.
Wow, we’re starting to see a stronger swing in those odds. Maybe a late surge for the Coalition?
MSL – yes but it is close.
Also from media reports (ABC 7.30 report and Sky News), I think Labor’s internal polling has deteriorated significantly in the last two weeks around Brisbane, namely Lilley, Moreton, and Petrie. I get the sense Labor are expecting to lose these and Blair or Oxley could be added to that list. Sky reported yesterday that in some of the Labor held seats around Brisbane, Labor’s primary vote could end up being in the mid-30s, which could mean the loss of a number of Brisbane seats.
My view is that I now expect the Coalition to pick up seats off Labor on a net basis in QLD, but I don’t think it will be many.
A net gain in Queensland would be pushing the Coalition vote haul above 90, then?
Is there any Coalition seat at risk now of being lost to Labor?
Probably Solomon and maybe Forde. Macquarie in NSW and Swan in WA would be next in line I would have thought.
MM
Only Solomon.
Bad news continues for Wayne Swan and Labor according to the betting sites.
This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Lilley shows support for Labor slips from $2.25 to $2.75 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.55 to $1.40. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor eases from $2.35 to $2.45 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.53 to $1.50.
More bad news for Labor according to the betting sites.
This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Lilley shows support for Labor crashes from $2.75 to $4.00 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.40 to $1.20. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor drifts from $2.45 to $2.75 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.50 to $1.40.
Swan kept the swing down to 1.7% and lives for another term which one would think would have to be his last. If parliament goes the full term he would have 20 years in this seat. Either due to retirement or continuing the trend this must be anticipated to be a likely LNP gain next time.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-17496-169.htm
Yappo – are you drinking DB’s Kool-Aid? 🙂
There is no way this will be a LNP gain next time unless Abbott does the nearly impossible and increases his majority at his second election. I’m not aware of that ever happening before – certainly not since Menzies time anyway.
With a second election swing this will be safe ALP next time regardless of whether Swan recontests.
Depends who the leader is MCBAL. Queenslanders are particularly parochial. While it seems likely that Labor would improve their vote in three years, there would be regional differences and I would expect Queensland to have the lowest swing to Labor, which, combined with Swanny’s personal vote, could make it close. A good Labor candidate should hold it though.