Greenway – Australia 2013

ALP 0.9%

Incumbent MP
Michelle Rowland, since 2010.

Geography
Western Suburbs of Sydney. Greenway covers the eastern parts of the City of Blacktown and some parts of Parramatta and Holroyd council areas. Suburbs include Lalor Park, Seven Hills, Blacktown, Toongabbie, Girraween, Pendle Hill, The Ponds and Riverstone.

History
Greenway was first created in 1984, and was held relatively comfortably by the ALP throughout the 1980s and 1990s.

The seat was first won by Russell Gorman in 1984. Gorman had previously held Chifley from 1983 until he moved to Greenway in 1984. He was succeeded by Frank Mossfield in 1996.

Mossfield retired at the 2004 election, and the ALP stood Ed Husic, while the Liberals stood Louise Markus. The ALP’s margin had been cut to 3% at the 2001 election, and in 2004 Markus managed to win the seat.

The 2007 election saw the seat redistributed radically, and the Liberal margin was increased from 50.6% to 61.3%. A swing of almost 7% was suffered against Markus, but she held on under the new boundaries.

The 2009 redistribution saw the boundary changes largely reversed, and the new margin saw Markus shift to the neighbouring seat of Macquarie, winning that seat off the ALP.

Labor councillor Michelle Rowland won the redrawn Greenway in 2010.

Candidates

  • Jaymes Diaz (Liberal)
  • Jamie Cavanough (Australian Voice)
  • Jodie Wootton (Palmer United Party)
  • Tom Lillicrap (Sex Party)
  • Michelle Rowland (Labor)
  • Anthony Belcastro (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Allan Green (Christian Democratic Party)
  • Chris Brentin (Greens)
  • Maree Nichols (Rise Up Australia)

Assessment
Greenway will be one of the Liberal Party’s top targets and will be a vital gain if the Coalition is to win a majority. The Liberal Party’s choice of candidate will have a major impact on the race.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Michelle Rowland ALP 33,567 42.32 -7.36
Jaymes Diaz LIB 32,788 41.34 +2.05
Paul Taylor GRN 4,769 6.01 +1.57
Allan Green CDP 2,922 3.68 +0.86
Iris Muller FF 1,296 1.63 +0.38
John Baiada BA 815 1.03 +1.03
Tony Pettitt AF 780 0.98 +0.98
Michael Santos IND 770 0.97 +0.97
Joaquim de Lima LDP 542 0.68 +0.51
Amarjit Tanda IND 530 0.67 +0.67
Ronaldo Villaver DEM 529 0.67 +0.67

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Michelle Rowland ALP 40,355 50.88 -4.79
Jaymes Diaz LIB 38,953 49.12 +4.79

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas. “North” covers those parts north of the M7. Areas in Blacktown City Council south of railway line (as well as those parts in Parramatta and Holroyd councils) have been grouped as “South” with the remainder in “Central”.

The Liberal Party won a majority in the north, while the ALP won a slim majority in the centre and a larger majority in the south.

Polling booths in Greenway. South in blue, Central in green, North in yellow.
Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
North 4.90 46.29 27,511 34.69
South 6.36 56.28 21,704 27.37
Central 6.61 51.69 15,710 19.81
Other votes 6.96 50.64 14,383 18.14
Two-party-preferred votes in Greenway at the 2010 federal election.

178 COMMENTS

  1. Generally speaking I agree with you Glen, though probably give the markets a bit more credit at this late stage of the campaign than you do. Funnily enough, I have heavy positions on the Greens in Melbourne, MacGowan in Indi, the ALP in Forde and even a little bit on the ALP in Greenway.

    Interestingly, in last year’s US election, there was a huge arbitrage opportunity existing between the two major betting exchanges, InTrade and Betfair. InTrade’s price in the final two weeks indicated that Romney was about a 30% chance of victory, while Betfair’s price suggested Romney was only a 10% chance. What was significant about this, is that there was enough volume in these two markets that you could get six figures down on both sides pretty much without any issues (as opposed to arbitrage opportunities you might find in this election campaign, where the bookmakers will typically restrict the amount they let you bet).

    Anyway, long story short, that opportunity persisted for at least two weeks (that’s when I discovered it), and disappeared basically the second voting closed in the western states. i’ve never seen an opportunity like that survive for so long.

    My hypothesis has always been that Romney, facing a cash crunch following his primary race, manipulated the InTrade markets (which are widely reported in the US, as opposed to Betfair which is restricted to Americans) to bolster his case when seeking major donations. “We’re right in this race, but we need your support.”

    Admittedly, that’s all pure speculation on my part. But I agree these markets are ripe for manipulation, and it’s not hard to think of possible motives for doing so.

  2. Glen, why do people keep referring to Forde as though they’re surprised the odds are so long for the ALP? They have no chance of winning Forde. I expect a double digit swing against Beattie. I’ve seen nothing to suggest otherwise either.

  4. In normal circumstances it would be staggering if he won. What he did was akin to streaking down the main street of the electroate……..I keep saying it but things must be crook for labor if he still can win this seat. …….

  5. Anyone know what the latest polls are for Greenway? Sportsbet have this seat as odds on for Jaymes Diaz. If this is so, just goes to show how many people just don’t read the local news or even know this guy is running for the local seat. Hate the way how elections are presidential these days and less about the local member.

  8. You would have to have been living on the moon not have seen Diaz’s interview Richard………Gets played on any TV channel you watch here (Vic) from serious news to send up comedy shows……..I don’t reckon he will be allowed to do a maiden speech if he gets in…..Maybe a sentence or two when Parliament is sitting late at night……..(Really Late)

  9. I want Liberal (Tony) to win, but on principal it’s a hard pill to swallow to vote for Jaymes . He is just so undeserving of a win, he just has not come across as politician material worth a Federal backbench minimum salary of $185,000 a year and knowing what he is talking about on those rare occasions he speaks. I think I will vote for a smaller party that then gives its preference to Liberal . I just cant bring myself to vote for Jaymes directly. Thanks again -Local Liberal branch- personal gain before Australian’s gain. Good one !. If Jaymes wins it will be on the coat tails of Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party and most importantly people wanting a change and for no other reason, I am sure .

  11. Well he won’t be doing that……You can’t get him to say anything in the first place. He might sneak out to vote on saturday……

  14. What’s holding you back DB on calling this one? In landslide elections people overlook if the candidate is bad…..just look at some of the wastes of space elected at the Qld landslide last year.

  15. I live in Greenway and admit to a Liberal leaning. But after seeing this Jaymes Diaz clown being interviewed and the way his ‘minders’ have rushed him away from any public speaking opportunity and his failure to turn up at a meeting of other candidates to speak in front of their constituents I just can’t bring myself to vote for him.
    He stood in the electorate last time. So why didn’t he at least grasp the basics of his party’s policies?
    He apparently is some sort of legal beagle. So why can’t he manage to form a better response than the recent “We are for families” that his minders have told him to spruik on the rare occasions that the media find him?
    He reckons he has door knocked in his electorate. Why have I not had the chance to speak with him on my door step?
    The guy is a goose, and it is with some sadness I say that, Liberal party, you lost my vote on this one.

    P.S. I apologise to any geese or clowns offended by my comparisons of them to Diaz.

  17. Hopefully, Diaz’s alter ego Charcoal Chicken will come back to bemoan how the Libs will be dealing with the devastating loss of future “leadership material” that is Diaz!

  19. The Liberal Right inc David Clarke and Tony Issa factions should be held accountable for what has happened in Greenway and Parramatta. They cost Abbott election in 2010 and would of now had the swing not happened in Victoria and regional Australia and Clive Palmer

  20. Good result – this bloke doesn’t deserve to be a parliamentarian. The libs need to do something about their western Sydney candidates – the branches keep selecting geese.

  22. Not only did the liberal vote flatline, but Michelle Rowland’s primary vote went up three points. Just goes to show what happens when you run a complete goose against a hard working and well known local member.

  23. Diaz deserved to lose.
    I think it shows the calibre of some of he candidates.
    A lower house seat pays the $190K. To Diaz, this sounds like a huge pay packet. But, to somebody that has 25 years experience, post graduate qualifications, extensive business and community social experience, it is a pay drop. Add in the long hours, time away from home and abuse you are exposed to, and you wonder why Diaz is the only candidate with their hand up.

  24. Whisper is that he is going to make a big ditch for the up coming local kindegarden board elections….. Will be a formidable opponant….

  25. Whisper is that he is going to make a big pitch for the up coming local kindegarden board elections….. Will be a formidable opponant….

  28. Cyril: “Whisper is that he is going to make a big pitch for the up coming local kindegarden board elections….. Will be a formidable opponant….”
    No doubt at that level he is future leadership material …………!

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