Grayndler – Australia 2013

1. I bother because I care enough to be involved. In campaigns we can have policy, that promises and the past can be glossed over in glitzy tv campaigns. Apart from the Liberal candidate for Grayndler, Cedric Spencer I was asked by the media upfront to provide material. Official Liberal Party releases, clearly marked and presumeably reforwarded, should not be confused with simple letters to the editor, which all of us send from time to time. I am proud of my contributions and stand by all of them. It is in the course of judgement for all or any editor of the press to decide whether this meets their own or and their readers. This is true of any contributions whether they be Liberal, Green or Labor. Most of supporters of Political parties are not paid and that applies to all sides of politics. It is however how we all carry the good fight and remind ourselves of the good things that can be achieved. And also some of the bad things others have achieved in moving forward. Whilst politics can be a multi dimensional beast, I will always work toward the public having the best grip on politics and obtaining the best deal for their hard won wages and their working time contributed. The issue I have raised does not reflect this and I do not in all fairness feel thiks is absurd at all. I do however respect your opinion and point of difference completely, as this is what discxussion is all about.

2. C’mon David, if you’re a Lib, fine, but don’t try to hide it behind faux-independent muckraking about Albo and the other candidates.

3. I never mentioned the other candidates. I wish the Independent candidates Bullet Train candidate, Christian candidate and Clive Palmers candidate a big hello as I feel little coverage has been afforded to them. If so, its been at the last minute. I believe it takes courage to stand as any independent.

4. Not as a suject changer but a genuine talking point, can I ask everybodys opinion on this. With all the concentration on the house of reps, can we have a look at what Grayndlers figures mean to the Senate? I think its only a couple of Senators coming up this time round. On Saturday Grayndler will vote on a second voting paper for the Senate. Based on resonable figures from the 96,000, what are the figures for Grayndler to Senate? It is unlikely a voter will split their voting party in the ballot room.

5. I tip Albo to hold. The Greens haven’t been as popular in NSW as elsewhere. They’ll still finish second, ahead of the Liberals, but they won’t make it.

6. Allow me to be immodest enough to boast “I got it right” on Grayndler. Nothing beats living in the area and having a feel for the way things are hanging. I correctly predicted the Greens would drop to third place.

   But I can’t crow too much. The Libs did not increase their vote (it went to Labor and others), and the “candidate factor” (the highly unsuitable Hall Greenland for the Greens) didn’t have the negative effect I’d factored in. His 3% drop was roughly the same as the Greens decline everywhere…

   … except in Melbourne, of course. The odd seat out, and it would be churlish not to congratulate that remarkable achievement. Finally, a Greens seat not dependent on the Liberals! But when a more sober analysis of that victory starts to emerge, and more thought is put into just how much it costs to keep a single lower house seat (at the expense of everything else), I doubt many will still be celebrating.

7. Well done Coco Bunter. I also predicted Libs for 2nd place here, and Greens 3rd, although I do remember reading the thread, and realising I wasn’t the first to make that call – I believe that was you! As you say, though, it had more to do with a surge for Albo pulling back Greens voters – the Lib vote was basically static.

8. I really enjoyed this quote (and you might too, GNav, Yappo and others) from Hall Greenland in today’s Inner West Courier. “He said it was only a matter of time before the progressive electorate (of Grayndler) fell to the Greens, despite the party dropping to third place.”

   So, the Greens went backwards, despite an inevitable trend to a Greens victory. That just states the obvious – something I brought up way (and others) back in this thread: Why was Hall Greenland pre-selected? All he achieved was to stop this inevitable trend!

   Hall Greenland is (was) a journalist. Like me, he knows what words mean. He is speaking garbage. No doubt (since the Courier is News Ltd) he will claim they misquoted him.

9. Yeah, I thought given that Spencer had his name around certain parts of the electorate for a long time, and Greenland’s apparent leftism, that the Liberals would finish 2nd.

   But all it just means was that people who may have voted Greens in a protest vote last year probably just returned to Labor. Liberals’ primary vote is pretty much the same.

10. Agree about the “protest” component of the Greens previous vote… Funny that much of that has gone to Palmer – a miner. Though PUP scored pretty dismally in Grayndler, as everyone except a few excitable posters, predicted.

    I know some in the ALP dream of “getting the Green voters” back (and they seem to have done that here, partially). Personally, I’d prefer to see more co-operation between the two like-minded parties and an end to the bitter internecine sniping that characterises the two in areas like Grayndler.

    Many Greens members in the inner west are veterans of the bitter (and quite literally bloody – remember the Baldwin bashing) internal ALP battles of 30-40 years ago. Hall Greenland was a major player in the immolation of the Left in the 70s and 80s. Like Hall, these people are getting on now. But amongst the ultra-leftists, it seems, old wounds never heal.

11. Does this result resolve any concerns about landline polling? It was pretty close to spot on.

12. It was interesting with quite a few factors. The Liberal vote held steady despite Cedric Spencer being highly outflanked in resources by Labor and the Greens. The three unknowns Bullet Train Party, Democrats and PUP attracted votes too 3%. I think people just wanted something positive. The fact that Cedric Spencer the Liberal came second, with the Liberal vote steady from 2010 is a testament to him and his hard work. I think the bitterness in Grayndler was evident at the Courier candidates event. Cedric was out doorknocking that evening trying to defy the odds and the previous lack of coverage he had received from the Courier. Whatever your allegience, I think you have to respect someone like Cedric. As I do all the volounteers on Saturday.

    It will be interesting to see if the newly elected Grayndler candidate steps up to the ALP leadership. Remembering that very few early, opposition leaders survive in the long term, it is a conundrum that will not be lost on those following the issue.

    My tip is if the new Liberal Government runs full term there might well be a by-election in Grayndler. Then we all get the chance to do it again.

13. You’re right about positivity, David Hunt.
    It seems that there are very few politicians running on campaigns that you’d consider positive – I think that a Liberal on one of the TV stations’ election night teams said that Nick Xenophon was just about the only person with a campaign involving positivity.
    I doubt that there’ll be a by-election, unless Albo loses the leadership contest and decides on the spot that he’s got nothing more to offer.

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