Forde – Australia 2013

LNP 1.6%

Incumbent MP
Bert Van Manen, since 2010.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Forde covers parts of Logan City, an urban area between the City of Brisbane and the Gold Coast. Forde also covers sparsely populated parts of the Gold Coast, but most of the population lives in Logan.

History
Forde was created at the 1984 election as a southern Brisbane seat as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. The seat has since moved further south and lies on the edge of the urban part of South-East Queensland.

Forde was first won in 1984 by David Watson (LIB), who lost the seat in 1987 to Mary Crawford of the ALP. Watson was elected to the Legislative Assembly in 1989 and went on to serve as a minister in the Borbidge government and as state Liberal leader from 1998 to 2001.

Mary Crawford held the seat from 1987 until her defeat at the 1996 election, serving as a Parliamentary Secretary for the last two years of the Keating government.

Kay Elson (LIB) won the seat in 1996. She held the seat for eleven years as a backbencher, retiring at the 2007 election. In 2007 the ALP’s Brett Raguse won the seat. Forde was the safest Liberal seat to be lost in 2007, with the ALP gaining a 14.4% swing. The LNP’s Bert Van Manen won the seat back in 2010 with a 5% swing.

Candidates

  • Jonathan Jennings (Rise Up Australia)
  • Bert Van Manen (Liberal National)
  • Peter Beattie (Labor)
  • Keith Douglas (Australian Voice)
  • Blair Brewster (Palmer United Party)
  • Joshua Sloss (Independent)
  • Jan Pukallus (Citizens Electoral Council)
  • Sally Spain (Greens)
  • Amanda Best (Family First)
  • Paul Roger Hunter (Katter’s Australian Party)

Assessment
Forde was an unexpected Labor gain in 2007 and returned to the conservative fold in 2010. The seat is held by a slim margin and will be heavily contested. Van Manen should benefit from a new personal vote.

The entry of former Queensland Premier Peter Beattie into the race was expected to shift Forde into a solid Labor gain, but recent polling suggests Beattie is struggling to win the seat.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Bert Van Manen LNP 30,967 44.08 +0.01
Brett Raguse ALP 26,268 37.39 -8.92
Petrina Maizey GRN 8,583 12.22 +7.78
Melissa Raassina FF 4,440 6.32 +3.56

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Bert Van Manen LNP 36,271 51.63 +4.99
Brett Raguse ALP 33,987 48.37 -4.99

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into five parts. Booths in the Gold Coast council area are grouped as ‘South’. The remainder have been grouped as Central, North, East and West.

The LNP won large majorities in the north and south, while the ALP won smaller majorities in the centre, the east and the west.

Polling booths in Forde at the 2010 federal election. South in yellow, North in purple, East in green, Central in blue, West in red.
Voter group GRN % LNP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Central 12.33 47.58 15,413 21.94
East 12.04 46.74 12,181 17.34
North 12.42 59.10 9,817 13.97
South 11.66 57.41 9,458 13.46
West 12.48 48.85 6,180 8.80
Other votes 9.76 52.62 3,421 24.49
Two-party-preferred votes in Forde at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Forde at the 2010 federal election.

175 COMMENTS

  1. QO – I know all about vandalism; indeed, I noted an example of that today, in Rankin, where a double-corflute of Rudd and Chalmers had been drawn on with black marker, in the standard face-vandalism (you know – drawing moustaches, things like that) – don’t know whether it was with intent or in fun.

    But 100 of the Beattie corflutes and posters being removed and none of the other candidates’ ones being removed, almost certainly including some that were in the same location (there are places where you see them all crowded next to each other, such as on Kingston Road as it passes under the Logan Motorway (I’m pretty sure there were two Beattie posters there last week, but there’s only one there this week; there’s now four van Manen ones, a Chalmers one (it’s on the boundary between divisions, I think), and a few for minor party candidates).

  3. Bert’s signs all gonne this morning and 4 beattie ones up,. . . . Beattie signs with horns in black texta, and other beattie ones with a painted cross in park Ridge,. . .

    With the Greens trying and succeeding in many cases to take controll of community action groups , often swaying them from action and into a lulled state where blame for all ills is put on LNP,. . they are never going to be there, no signs seen.

    Have not seen any sign of any other posters or signs

    After the loss of our democratic right to vote on which council we want to be in Taken by Beattie, I’m hoping he will suffer a huge defeat ,. . he does not deserve another feed at the taxpayer trough.

  4. Ted – whereabouts in Park Ridge did you see this change?

    Meanwhile, Greens “lulling people into inaction” doesn’t really sound like the Greens to me. Is it possible that you consider it “inaction” because it’s not the action you support?

    And I can’t for the life of me figure out what you mean by “democratic right to vote on which council we want to be in”. If you’re referring to council amalgamations, I’m going to point out that you have never had the right to vote on which council you’re part of – it’s defined by your place of residence and local governments are owned by the state government, in that it is state government that established and funds local governments.

    So perhaps you should consider dropping the rhetoric and the hyperbole, and try speaking more reasonably. I’m not saying you should support Beattie, or anything like that, but try to be better than the politicians that throw phrases like “thought bubble”, “feed at the taxpayer trough”, or “cut, cut, cut” around to influence opinion. If you’ve bought into LNP rhetoric, it’s no better than buying into ALP rhetoric.

  5. Good post Glen. I 100% agree. It’s always better when we can have a reasonable, even-handed discussion rather than a never-ending, partisan argument.

  6. Surge of support for the Coalition according to Sports Bet.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Forde shows support for Labor drifts from $5.00 to $6.00 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.14 to $1.10.

  8. Those odds seem off. If they are just based on those polls from right after Beattie jumped in, that’s a lot of faith in polls (some unproven) taken while the race was in flux and a lot of time remained before polling day. Is something else going on? My understanding was that both side saw this race as still competitive.

  9. From the look of things, Beattie shouldn’t have bothered coming back. He looks too much like a blow-in. I tip van Manen to hold.

  10. In case you don’t understand, Bert is a bloody god-botherer, but at least he’s a local and has been around the place since the last election. Beattie is a “blow fly – beat-in” , ain’t going to elect him! Bert we can probably train to represent us – Beattie – no chance! If the Labor party had any respect for the electorate of Forde, they would have gone with the nice young kid they originally chose, rather than a has-been like Beattie.

  11. I think you’re mistaken on two points with that comment, Stephen.

    Beattie was renowned in Brisbane for being a good representative, both before and after becoming Premier (that is, even when he was premier, he was known for being active in the electorate, and a proper voice for that electorate).

    And the reason why they made the change is that Des Hardman was selected precisely because the seat was seen as a lost cause under Gillard. And I have no doubt that their choice of Beattie was also in part due to the potential for him to become the leader at some point in the future.

    Tell me, what was your opinion of Campbell Newman running for Queensland parliament in Ashmore? Because at least Peter Beattie is specifically saying he’s running for the people of Forde, unlike Newman who ran for Ashmore because he has to be elected to a seat to become premier.

  14. Momentum for the Coalition according to Centrebet.

    This afternoon, Centrebet odds in Forde shows support for Labor slips from $4.00 to $5.25 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.20 to $1.12.

  15. More momentum for the Coalition according to Sports Bet.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Forde shows support for Labor crashes from $6.00 to $7.00 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.10 to $1.05.

  16. If there was a bet I’d safely put my house it would not only be the LNP to win this but to be in the top 5 biggest swings in the country to the Coalition and go into the next election with a double digit margin. This is one of the dumbest decisions ever by a party in an election.

  19. It hurts me to say it Yappo, as you can tell I’m sure by the name I use on here I don’t exactly support the Liberal Party, I vote Labor, but sometimes you gotta be realistic, and while I’m all for optimism, when it’s optimism to the ridiculous amount it’s just sickening. If you can produce me any poll that has Labor in front or even within reach in Forde please show me? And asking a few people at the shops or that you know in the electorate is no indication. People may shake Beattie’s hand and say hello to him but that’;s because most people have manners, doesn’t mean like hell they will vote for him. I would put my house on this, the only more sure thing as far as marginal seats goes is Labor to be gone in the seats of Moreton and Petrie 30 minutes into counting. Queensland is Rudd’s home state, but other than west Sydney, Qld will be the biggest horror show for the ALP on the night. If it wasn’t against my priniple to bet against teams I support, I would have taken odds I was given of 10-1, ALP to be left with non seats in Qld.

  21. Momentum continues for the Coalition according to Centrebet.

    Currently, Centrebet odds in Forde shows for Labor eases from $5.25 to $6.00 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.12 to $1.10.

  22. Gap continues to widen between the major parties according to the betting sites.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Forde shows support for Labor drifts from $7.00 to $9.00 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.05 to $1.03. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor slips from $6.00 to $7.50 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.10 to $1.06.

  23. What on earth happened to the Greens here? They lost more than two-thirds of their vote, crashing from 12.2% down to 4.0%. They also lost more than half their vote in Rankin, Oxley, Blair, Wright, Petrie and Longman. Bad night for the Brisbane Greens.

  24. Yes they got smashed but not really that surprising given 2010 votes in Qld were a bit inflated. The core Qld vote stayed. The others protest voters (ie. non majors) went to the new parties parties while the swingers who may have protested Rudds removal by voting Green last time went back to the majors, mostly LNP.

    Qld has always been a place where the Greens vote is lower than the other states. So 6% statewide looks about right. Will be very tough next time for that 1 Senate position. They’ll need to be very strategic to keep it.

  25. The greens vote doubled in QLD at the 2010 election from about 5 to 10%, probably as a protest against Kevin Rudd’s removal.

    Rudd in 2013 won back a lot of those Green protest voters, especially in SE QLD, but Labor lost votes at the other end to the LNP and Palmer.

    People who were cranky at the Labor-Greens alliance, and who didn’t like the state LNP’s cuts, probably parked their protest vote with Palmer.

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