Blair – Australia 2013

ALP 4.2%

Incumbent MP
Shayne Neumann, since 2007.

Geography
Blair covers most of the City of Ipswich as well as  Somerset Regional Council. The seat covers the urban area of Ipswich and rural areas to the west, and towns such as Esk and Kilcoy.

History
Blair was created at the 1998 election, one of a number of seats created in Queensland over the last few decades. The seat was held by the Liberal Party until 2007, when the ALP won.

Blair took over territory in Ipswich in 1998 from the seat of Oxley. Oxley had a long history of being held by the Labor Party but was lost to disendorsed Liberal candidate Pauline Hanson in 1996. Hanson formed One Nation in her term in the House of Representatives, and contested Blair in 1998. Hanson came first on primary votes, but lost on preferences. Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson came third on primary votes, but overtook the ALP on Nationals preferences and then overtook Hanson on Labor preferences.

Thompson held Blair at the 2001 and 2004 elections, but lost in 2007 to Labor candidate Shayne Neumann. Neumann was assisted by a redistribution which saw Blair take in more of pro-Labor Ipswich, losing rural conservatives areas to the northwest, although it gained areas to the southwest which have since been shedded. The 2010 redistribution again favoured Labor, but Neumann suffered a 2.7% swing at the election.

Candidates

  • Elwyn Denman (Family First)
  • Shayne Neumann (Labor)
  • Dale Chorley (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Anthony Mackin (Rise Up Australia)
  • Teresa Harding (Liberal National)
  • Anthony Stanton (Palmer United Party)
  • Claire Rudkin (Greens)
  • Shannon Deguara (Australian Independents)

Assessment
Blair is a marginal Labor seat, and if there is a significant anti-Labor swing the seat will likely fall to the LNP. In current circumstances, this seems less likely.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Shayne Neumann ALP 30,890 42.08 -9.23
Neil Zabel LNP 27,525 37.50 -2.11
Patricia Petersen GRN 8,122 11.06 +6.96
Joshua Olyslagers FF 3,605 4.91 +2.86
Brad King IND 3,267 4.45 +4.45

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Shayne Neumann ALP 39,814 54.24 -2.74
Neil Zabel LNP 33,595 45.76 +2.74
Polling places in Blair at the 2010 federal election. Central Ipswich in blue, East Ipswich in red, North ipswich in green, Rural Ipswich in orange, Somerset in purple. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Blair at the 2010 federal election. Central Ipswich in blue, East Ipswich in red, North ipswich in green, Rural Ipswich in orange, Somerset in purple. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into five areas. Booths in Somerset local government area have been grouped together. Those booths in the City of Ipswich have been divided into four parts. Those in the rural west of the council area have been grouped together. Most of Blair’s population lives in the urban area around the centre of Ipswich, and these have been divided into Central, North and East.

The ALP won a majority in those areas in urban Ipswich, varying from 54.2% in the north to 63.2% in the east. The LNP won a majority of 53% in rural Ipswich and 56.2% in Somerset.

The Greens’ vote varied from 7.9% in Somerset to 13.1% in East Ipswich.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Central Ipswich 12.03 57.97 23,778 32.39
North Ipswich 10.85 54.18 10,926 14.88
Somerset 7.91 43.84 9,835 13.40
East Ipswich 13.06 63.20 8,490 11.57
Rural Ipswich 10.15 46.94 5,302 7.22
Other votes 10.95 52.68 15,078 20.54
Two-party-preferred votes in Blair at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Blair at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Blair at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Blair at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the Ipswich urban area at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the Ipswich urban area at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in the Ipswich urban area at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in the Ipswich urban area at the 2010 federal election.

108 COMMENTS

  2. Another surge of support for the Coalition according to Centrebet.

    Currently, Centrbet odds in Blair shows support for Labor eases from $1.70 to $1.80 whilst support for the LNP firms from $2.05 to $1.90.

  4. balmain – fair point I could have substituted the words “another surge” to “more”. Certainly the momentum has been for the LNP in the last four weeks from both betting agencies in this electorate.

    Certainly a seat to watch on election night.

  5. People of Blair, ask the right questions of Teresa Harding, she is not at all who she says she is or who she claims to be! Ask her about her past, that’s for sure…

  6. Dead heat between the major parties according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Blair shows support for Labor drifts from $1.75 to $1.85 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $2.00 to $1.85.

  8. Coalition are now the favourites according to the betting sites.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Blair shows support for Labor slips from $1.85 to $1.90 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.85 to $1.80. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor eases from $1.80 to $2.00 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.90 to $1.75.

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