Wentworth by-election, 2018

Is that 91 (Vaucluse) the safest metropolitan booth in Australia? There’s nothing quite at that level with a quick glance at similar areas (eg Toorak booths are in the mid-70s 2PP). I know there are country towns that almost entirely vote Nationals, and remote/mobile booths that almost entirely vote Labor, but it’s quite insane for a city.

At any rate it seems the Harbourside booths will outweigh even the best Labor or Green campaign to leverage their stronger areas. I thought here may have been some hope for non Liberals with the results in Waverley council, and this fact came up in the news reports about how Turnbull would quit politics if he lost the leadership, but those are some insane numbers to overcome.

Prediction: Huge swing and Labor/Greens will win booths, but Turnbull or whoever else is running as a Liberal will always win easily.

I had a quick glance as well, Vaucluse is a pretty small booth (783 formal), the closest I found was 86 in Dalkeith(Curtin) which might be safest metro booth with above 1000 votes (2,349 formal).

These safe wealthy electorates don’t appear to be becoming any more marginal, Greens might be able to make 2nd place here but it wont change the 2PP at all. I would predict the swing will be small.

You can always click on the same booth in the first map and see the breakdown of vote percentages for the main candidates and the total vote as well as the booth name.

I believe the Liberal margin is inflated in Wentworth due to Malcolm Turnbull being a quite popular MP.

I wonder how close will Wentworth be without Turnbull. Considering a one stage the margin was around 2% is this the real margin for Wentworth?

Is Labor or the Greens a chance?

This seat may or may not go to a by election depending whenever the next election is held.
Apparently Christine Forster will run for Liberal preselection, also the former ambassador to Israel may run.
Independent state member for Sydney, Alex Greenwich may also run according to news reports.
The Greens have also announced that local councillor Dominic Wy Kanak will run.

IMO this seat could get really interesting, whilst the Libs should hold here much of their vote is inflated due to Turnbull’s personal vote.

The inclusion of the names Forster and Greenwich could really make this competitive.

Greens are a real chance of winning Wentworth at the looming by-election now I reckon. A lot of the Liberal vote would have been a personal vote for Turnbull and they will likely see a large drop in support without him running. Who would even consider voting for the Libs right now anyway? The party is a complete joke.

You’d have to think that the Libs still have the inside track on this one.

If Alex Greenwich does run, he would be the better chance to take the seat than Labor or the Greens. They ought to campaign accordingly.

Well, according to the Guardian, Alex Greenwich isn’t running.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/24/malcolm-turnbulls-sydney-seat-vulnerable-if-he-leaves-politics-after-spill

So that’s that.

There are pros and cons in running Christine Forster, the pro is she will have a high profile, but the con is she is related to Tony Abbott so may face a backlash.

margin 2004 5% margin 2007 a bit over 3% with a 1.5% swing ad Newhouse was seen as an accident prone candidate 2010 margin rose by 11% with I think 3% swing in 2013….basically he has kept that approx. 10% increase in the vote margin now 16% how much of this.is a personal vote and how much is less serious alp contacting I don’t know…the seat is roughly Waverly and wolalhara council areas plus some Randwick and Kings cross Darlinghurst

votes Bondi- Waverley and Paddington and Coogee seem inflated by at least 10% maybe more… if Labor could get 55% there then much closer

I would expect the light blue booths along the Bondi-Waverly area to flip red in the absence of Turnbull but that certainly would not be enough for Labor to outright win it.

Liberal hold with ~10% swing against them at the current stage, would depend who the parties nominate.

I think the media is overhyping the chances of this seat being a contest because it’s likely to be a standalone byelection. It will also be convenient for Scott Morrison to get a win on the board before going to a federal election.

Factors that could complicate the election:
* Peter King recontesting (he was in the audience for Malcolm Turnbull’s final question time and hasn’t been forgotten)
* A high profile independent endorsed by Clover Moore and Alex Greenwich
* Lee Lin Chin? (she has joked about the prospect of running here, for Labor or the Greens on twitter far too many times)
* Labor and Greens both running active campaigns to leverage their support in the Waverley area.

There is definitely some room for improvement, for example when you compare the Greens results to their typical council results in both Woolahra and Waverley.

However it would take a seriously strong effort to overcome the 80s and 90s in the Harbourside suburbs. I also expect a tablecloth sized ballot paper of frivolous candidates and an army of young Liberals at every booth.

If the media hypes this up as “Morrison’s big test”, it’s one he’s going to pass.

Wentworth is not as safe as it looks on paper but it is hard to see it changing hands unless the Liberals stuff up pre-selection or a well known local independent stands.

My former seat.

At the last state election local ALP candidate commented that Coogee was swinging to the libs at the rate of 0.5% pa, the Waverley booths aren’t going to bring this home for the ALP.

I would expect this to settle at a mean 57% lib vote with a 5% variance either side.

ALP won’t win it on these boundaries.

sure booths in the political equivalent of the state seat of Coogee are demographically changing against Labor… but labor lost the state seat of that name by 2 to 3% as you can see by these figures turnbull was polling 7 to 8% better there are rumours that ex mp Peter King may recontest.The stars need to all align for the libs to lose… but take 10% off lnp 2pp…. a good alp candidate and a serious campaign……. ” All eyes are on Wentworth”

This is now a very, very safe LIB seat. The ONLY thing that could change this is an influx of approx 25000 voters from the city of Sydney. This is not inconceivable after the next redistribution . However the AEC would need to completely backflip. They are not known for their dexterity !!.

Only a progressive Independent like Clover Moore could take this seat off the liberals. The Labor party can win votes south of Bondi Road (in the state seat of Coogee) but that’s it. Too much old and new money.

A new Reachtel poll has this seat at 50-50 2PP.
Once again single seat polls aren’t exactly a great indicator of the results.
That being said i’d expect a result of 57-43 to the Libs.

there be more liberal votes cut in the southern parts of wentworth, the areas close to sydney cbd + the bondi areas.

they areb3xactly the areas where there could be an anti liberal swing.. Bondi/Coogee/Randwick/Paddington and Darlinghurst Kings cross

Ben, Tim Murray is the Labor Candidate. https://twitter.com/Timpmurray

I think the biggest barrier so called progressives face in seats like Wentworth is a lack of an economic policy, it is all good and well to focus on social policies but people that live in seats like Wentworth also value good economic policy. Until so called progressives can talk the talk on economics or some kind of pro business policy then the Liberals will continue to hold it. Although they might lose this by-election however I would expect they will probably regain it at the next election.

Its hard to see the Liberals winning is they pick a man for this seat such as Dave Sharma, He is conservative, this seat is socially progressive that’s why Andrew Bragg dropped out, If a woman was to be preselected that is socially progressive like Christine Forester (She dropped out) Then the libs will hold, But if Andrew Bragg is nominated then i see this going to labour until the next federal election then the Libs will gain this back, (Unless a strong independent comes in!) then we could see a repeat of Wagga Wagga. A Socially progressive woman would be the safest bet for the liberals

How would picking a woman help? I imagine the “woman voting for woman” vote will go nowhere but Kerryn Phelps.

What do people make of Licia Heath and her chances?. Looking at her bio and her twitter feed she looks and sound like a typical Wentworth type.

Ooo Alex Greenwich has endorsed Licia Heath and is campaigning for her… I assume that must mean some amount of volunteer numbers and field campaign ability?

Gonna be important to get visibility in the short time there is until the election day.

tim murray to win wentworth by prefrences

Dave Sharma has been preselected for the Liberal Party.

Dave sharma won’t win, He will lose to Labor because he has not lived in the electorate before, and he is conservative and he opposes SSM (Same sex marriage) This electorate is socially progressive, Its going to be very hard for the liberals to hold with a conservative candidate, it will be close, but i believe Labor will win and hold to seat until the next federal election

Labor, Greens, Licia Heath and Kerryn Phelps together could knock off the Liberals, and not sure who would ultimately win.

Most of me thinks this seat is being overhyped by Liberals wanting to build a comeback narrative but the ability to lodge a protest vote may make it interesting after all.

The Liberal candidate is also to close to Israel. ABC TV news said he is Jewish and about 12% of Wentworth are Jewish. So 88% are not Jewish and the ABC did not say who was Christian or of other religions or with no religion. Why is Jewishness always highlighted in Wentworth and Melbourne Ports (renames McNamara)? There is only about 80,000 of them in Australia according to the ABS Census.

I also think that Wentworth will not be won by the Liberals. Kerryn Phelps is well know, a former president of the AMA, a “liberal” activist and TV talk panelist. She might even get up on election day.

A tip, of you want to know who is Jewish check out the Australian Jewish News newspaper online as they often publish the names, be they future MP’s like Sharma or Queen Birthday honours for example. Many Jews dont look Middle Eastern now because of hundreds of years of racial mixing in Europe.

Actually Sharma may not be Jewish. He got a story in the AJN however complete with a hand written ballot sheet showing which candidates were defeated successively out of 201 delegates in all who voted.

Sharma won every ballot numbers wise with Shield and King 2nd and 3rd all the way while the others got much fewer votes and dropped out. The Liberals bring on non FEC and non branch delegates, NSW Division HQ people and MP’s for a pre-selection too.

Sharma is of India origin born Canada and then immigrated to Australia. He said at the pre-selection he is not a dual citizen showing his citizenship papers to the FEC delegates.

An advantage for Sharma is that he was endorsed by Turnbull. Turnbull may step in and campaign for him – which would be a plus.

The libs have also learned and gone for a short campaign. They will have an advantage in being able to leverage pre polls and postals. And in a seat like Wentworth they will be decisive. Turn out may also be a factor in a seat with a high transient enrolment.

Kerryn Phelps will no doubt also draw away a lot of votes from Labor and Greens, as well as the Libs. The ALP and Greens might drop down to single digits.

originally i want tim murray to win but i prefer kerryn phelps for a change.

Phelps is as different to a Green as Wilkie is. Not much. As i used to often say to WD junior when he had the excuse of adolescence “You are like a girl. You can’t have a thought without sharing it !”

Phelps just could not help herself, with her pronouncements on climate change, & the “humane” treatment of detainees in camps. It is staggering when a person of obvious intelligence, displays such dearth of judgement, & acts so dumb.

Still an understanding of the enneagram reveals that this is consistent behaviour of very fixated Type 1s. Phelps & Di Natale would have a great “meeting of minds”…

Winediamond, I find it fascinating how it’s often the stupidest people who are the most convinced of their great intelligence.

Can we please lay off speculating as to whether someone is Jewish? If there’s something published clarifying his ethnicity and religion fine to specify that but otherwise let’s just drop it.

Ben
When have i ever laid claim to possessing great intelligence !?. It is only Type 5 fixations that have the overarching attachment, & investment to knowing, knowing best, knowing all. Politics is a monoculture of Type 5s. Like all monocultures it is a breeding ground for disease, & dysfunction.

Excuse me for simply pointing this out. It is true that i do not possess above average intelligence , however i do have other skills, & my own individual experience, which i believe counts for something….
Great intelligence without awareness, & insight is more dangerous than stupidity.

Phelps just announced she is preferncing the liberal party

Wont make any difference if She comes in second considering all other parties would preference Dr Phelps, IND Gain

It may be strategic to take the heat off of her when the Coalition is saying she’s a Labor candidate in disguise. If the 2CP comes down to Phelps v. Sharma, it doesn’t matter. If it comes down to Murray v. Sharma it might make a big difference but Murray has a long shot anyway.

yes it will….. the flow of alp/green and Greenwich preferences will be less to her… may also reduce her primary vote

But are they more likely to switch from Phelps to Sharma if they’re unhappy with her preferencing Sharma?

Kerryn Phepls knows that Labor, Greens, minor party candidates and Independents will preference her ahead of Dave Sharma.

The move by her to preference Libs over Labor is a strategic move to appeal the Turnbull kind of Liberals. She thinks she can finish 2nd on primary vote and win on preferences from Greens, Labor and the others, similar to Wagga results

no they will not shift to her in the first place from the libs or vote for the alt anti lib trio

A week ago some senior Liberals were suggesting Turnbull may be asked to return from the USA to help the Liberal candidate. Given the revolations today about ABC chairman and Turnbull intimidation of ABC journalists having him handing around the candidate may backfire.

Maybe Turnbull is very devious….. if the electorate needed a liberal woman….. he helped pick a conservative male…… to lose the seat? I wonder we will never know

Perhaps Turnbull was an anti Liberal Party mole all the time.