Warrandyte by-election, 2023

Supposedly Tim Smith is looking to make a return to politics here

The only way the liberals lose this from what I can see is due to the state infighting or because this is part of the federal seat of Aston which the Liberals just lost.
But I dont see this happening.
The anti-Dan sentiment and some policies since the election will give the Liberals a bigger win.

A strong Independent and no ALP is the main reason the Liberals lose.

Agree with David above that all the Liberals have to do is run someone half-competent and this is a safe retain. However The Guardian suggests, among other names, that some Liberals are thinking of running 2022 Box Hill candidate Nicole Werner for the by-election. Considering how terribly she performed in Box Hill that would put this seat in danger I reckon.

Indricothere – I would suggest Werner’s poor performance in Box Hill had little to do with her personally than with the popularity of the Labor government and Liberal brand damage among the constituents of that seat. Apart from Doncaster East, nothing in this seat is anything like Box Hill.

None of this seat is in Aston, it all falls under Menzies I believe, other than a small portion around Chirnside Park in Casey.

Interesting fact – this seat, along with neighbouring Bulleen and Evelyn, are the only Liberal held state seats in Melbourne that are entirely contained within Federal Liberal seats. Clearly not many people in Melbourne can say they are represented by a Liberal both Federally and state. Shows that the north east (south of the Yarra) is one of the last bastions in Melbourne for the Liberals.

A small part of the seat north of Pigeon Bank Road is in Labor held Jagajaga

A small part of the seat north of Pigeon Bank Road is in Labor held Jagajaga

There is also a small part of the seat in Maroondah council which is in Deakin federally but that is some of the bluest part of Deakin (Warranwood, Ringwood north). This seat is not really Tealish but not usually winnable for Labor so i dont think they will have an interest. However, if Labor is headed for another big win in 2026 they will be interested in neighbouring Croydon which in hindsight they should have campaigned strongly in November and that is a seat where they have a better chance of entrenching themselves in unlike Warrandyte.

John Pesutto may be pleased, as Nimalan alluded to in the Warrandyte – 2022 thread, because Smith is hard right and also supports Brad Battin, who was narrowly beaten for the party leadership. Pesutto’s dream is to get a moderate or at least an ally preselected and then voted in at the by-election. It’ll protect his leadership in the short-term.

The latest Roy Morgan and Resolve opinion polls show a 5% primary vote swing to Labor and a 5% swing away from the LNP. Dan Andrews is still on a post-election high it seems. I note that the swings won’t be uniform state-wide nor will they will be replicated exactly at the by-election.

The Liberals were quite good at sandbagging their own seats in metro Melbourne in 2022. They lost seats that were vacant seats or were drastically redistributed e.g. Glen Waverley. Smith’s personal vote and incumbency probably held up the 2PP in 2022 but this won’t be available. Also, the anti-Dan vote, which was a huge factor last year, will subside even more in the next few months as the pandemic is in the rear-view mirror.

Well given that a handful of houses here are in Jagajaga, that does just leave Evelyn and Bulleen as the only seats that meet that criteria.

Despite Labor polling very well and Covid being in the rear view mirror, I suspect the landlord tax won’t be popular here. The population is older and wealthier than average so I suspect has a higher than average proportion of property investors. There are also a number of private schools in the area, which may hit hard. I’d expect a Liberal retain here, with maybe a small swing to Labor due to the retiring member’s lost personal vote.

Would be extremely disastrous for the Libs to lose here. It would be only possible if they preselect someone like Tim Smith.

Tim Smith coming back will ensure the Liberals only win 2-3 seats in 2026.

Here is how this happens:

1) Jacinta Allan replaces Daniel Andrews by 2026
2) John Pessutto is ousted as leader of the Liberals
3) The Victorian Nationals break up the coalition agreement like they did after 1999.
4) Moira Deeming is re-admitted to the caucus and people like Tim Smith get into parliament.
5) The federal liberals choose someone like Andrew Hastie after a 2025 loss and lurch even further to the right
6) Any split in the Liberals (similar to the coalition splitting) except some moderate liberals quit the party if the party shifts to the right.

Not saying all these events are likely. but all those, the Liberals will be writing the longest suicide note in history. and it seems they are gonna repeat the Labor split of 1955 and stay in opposition for 30 years.

I won’t even consider voting for them if they do the stuff I listed, when I move down there, even though the election isn’t due until 2026.

My mistake I meant near Aston.

I think it comes down to the candidate for the Liberals. Female will win. Pessutto ally should win. Someone like Tim Smith is likely to lose.

For 2026 the Liberals need Pessutto and Andrews to stay and a moderate to replace Dutton. They will still lose but make it a small ALP majority. It would also help for the Greens to take seats as well.

A few of the Liberal hard heads need to have a quiet word with Tim Smith and just say “No:.

I dont feel there would have been much of anti-Dan lock down sentiment to begin with here. Much of this area is Green Wedge and McMansion suburbia with a lot of green space etc so lockdowns would not have been felt the same way also like Adam said an older and wealthier population with stable employment. This seat virtually had a status quo result similar to Bulleen, Ivanhoe, Eltham, Essendon which are seats that form the demographic mid-point between standard middle class areas in the East where Labor got a swing to them and the Elite areas such as Brighton, Sandringham, Malvern etc where the Libs got swings to them. I do agree with Adam that the Private School Payroll tax issue would hurt them here. Yarra Valley Grammar, Whitefriars are in the seat as is a primary campus of Carey Grammar. Also Manningham does have a rather high percentage of students who attend private school despite it not being an elite area.

The anti-Dan is more then the lockdown. The environmentalists dont like him personally because if not for him, duck-shooting would have been banned this year.
THere are many other issues too.

Instead of anti-Dan votes, I wonder if there is a significant enough grouping of anti-Pesutto votes. Not necessarily among the general populace, but perhaps among the core Liberal people, i.e. those would volunteer on campaigns. If they really wanted to spit the dummy, could they sabotage the by-election campaign by trying to run dead assuming Labor runs, with the intention of wanting Labor to win in order to make Pesutto’s leadership untenable?

WL – this is probably not the issue at a by election as it is at a general election where the resources have to be spread more thinly. It might not be a good look but they get helpers in from outside. Are the local branches really that right wing? After all Keith Wholohan knocked off Kevin Andrews and Matthew Guy is next door.

I don’t think that would be the case as even the far-right liberal supporters that despise pseutto for expelling deeming and being a moderate will not risk turning their seat red. If it was on a double digit margin maybe, but being on a 4% margin they will be more commited to keeping this liberal and focusing and getting rid of pseutto later for a more conservative leader. At least thats how I see it.

sorry redistributed i was responding to WL comment, my comment was uploaded late

@redistributed the state branches located in this seat under these boundaries are most certainly right wing. The parts that overlap with Deakin are controlled by Michael Sukkar while the branches here that are in Menzies were the stronghold of Kevin Andrews. The Bulleen branches (and Keith Wolahan as well) are what I’d describe as the midpoint between moderates and conservatives.

Ryan Smith was on the right faction of the Liberal party but i think had some personal vote, i think he was seens as somewhat active in the community and campaigned for things they found important.
@Indrocothere The Liberals performance in Box Hill can probably be put down to things such as changing demographics, Liberals current poor standing with the Chinese community and the SRL.
@WL Maybe there could be some hardcore Liberal voters unhappy with Pesutto but it would be stupid to vote Labor because of it and there may not be enough of them to make a difference, “this person isn’t right-wing enough for me so ill vote for someone further to the left” is flawed thinking. Parts of the seat such as Donvale east of Springvale Road, some parts of Doncaster East, some parts of Warrandyte (especially around the high school), parts of North Ringwood that border Park Orchards and South Warrandyte Wonga Park and Park Orchards would vote Liberal even if they preselected a bottle of water.
There wouldn’t be much ant-lockdown sentiment in this seat or else we would’ve seen it last election. As @Nimilan says most of the seat is established wealthy.
@Nimilan The private school tax would effect this area although i believe the most popular private schools for this area would be Whitefriars, Luther and Yarra Valley Grammar. I don’t think Whitefriars and Luther would be affected by the new tax. There would also be a few students from this area who would go to Eltham College, Tintern and Marcellin which will definitely be affected by the taxes. Andrews i believe has recently backflipped on this tax, maybe a little too conveniently.
@Dan M Does Kevin Andrews control this branch does he, i don’t know exactly his residence but i thought he was more around the Bulleen area so that would be in his control. Keith Wolohan lives in Warranwood so his area is controlled by Sukkar.

Residing in a particular suburb doesn’t equate to someone necessarily controlling the branches in said suburb. Kevin Andrews lives in Eaglemont/Heidelberg which is not in Menzies and never was in Menzies. He’s out of the picture now but the branches in Warrandyte have merely just been transferred to other Kevin Andrews allies in the area who obviously have close ties to Sukkar. These are the type of people who religiously watch SkyNews and love Tim Smith.

In regards to the discussion about the private school tax, one thing I think we should also keep in mind is the western part of this seat being located in the highly sought after East Doncaster Secondary College catchment zone. I’m sure their attitudes towards the private school tax would be different to the other parts of this seat, especially since many in the school zone paid a premium for the zoning that could have just as easily been spent on a private school instead while living out of zone for a cheaper price.

As I mentioned earlier, Bulleen and Evelyn are the only Liberal held seats in Melbourne entirely contained with Federal Liberal seats. There are 37 such Labor seats. Interesting.

@ North East you are correct there is a lot students in the seat who also go to Marcellin, Tintern Eltham College etc and a surprisingly amount a lot of students from Manningham attend the ones in Kew Private schools as well. So there could still be a backlash. This issue has actually provided the Liberals with a way to reconnect with their heartland, Jess Wilson has been vocal on it for obvious reasons.
@ Dan M, the EDSC school performance is relatively recent and that part of Doncaster East is less affluent and more Labor-friendly anyway including my old primary school, Doncaster Gardens. In Manningham, the areas that are hilly with good views are more affluent, have more McMansions and a higher Liberal vote. The Southern parts of Manningham are flatter. The Milgate PS booth is usually thumping for the Liberals and that part of Doncaster East is certainly more affluent so it suprises me that Labor won that booth. Incidentally, on the topic of Private Schools, the Whitefriars College booth is the strongest but that is a very leafy, Anglo part of Donvale quite different from the area around EDSC.

Interestingly the single member council ward around Donvale is held by a Greens councillor, and those are some high Greens votes in the north for a fairly ho-hum election. Don’t see them winning but Greens should try to do more here than they did for Narracan and Aston.

Adam
To reach a tally of 37 ‘double red’ Melbourne LA seats, you’d need to define Melbourne beyond the VEC’s “Metropolitan Regions”, & this would bring Nepean into the tally as a third ‘double blue’ seat. Berwick also lies predominantly [?completely] within the boundary of laTrobe

That tally includes Melton and Yan Yean which are clearly suburban Melbourne. It also I also included Evelyn for the Libs which is suburban Melbourne too. This fits in with the ABS definition of Melbourne. You could add one for the Libs with Nepean/Flinders. Berwick takes in quite a bit of Bruce. The fact still stands that it shows how dominant Labor is in metro Melbourne at the moment.

@ Adam, Further to your point it seems Manningham is the only LGA completely represented by Libs at both state and Federal while Bayside LGA is the only other council in metro Melbourne that does not have Labor representing any part of it but has a Teal federally. However, both councils have booths that Labor won at a state level while in 2010 Labor did not win a single booth in either council.

Just to correct my earlier comments, apparently Whitefriars will be affected by the new proposed changes to private schools, i thought it was cheaper but must’ve lumped it in with some other schools. I also saw a list of affected schools and saw some obvious absences and the talk was only about Catholic schools. Does the proposed tax just target Catholic schools or is it for all private schools.
@Dan M Thanks for the info, i can see that scenario often been annoying for locals in opposing factions. I assume Andrews faction wouldn’t have that much control in the Eaglemont/Ivanhoe area and that’s the reason for crossing the river.
You’re right about EDSC to an extent, i can’t think of any private schools in the DE and Doncaster area, although the catchment zone for EDSC isn’t that stringent. You can live a couple of suburbs over in North Warrandyte and attend EDSC.
@Nimilan Carey Grammar in Kew would probably be the most popular private school in that area for students in Manningham.
@John The Greens can often do well at council level in unexpected areas, maybe a high profile for their local candidate, a more community based approach and policy feel compared to other candidates, maybe a bit of Nimbyism.

@Adam Melton has only recently been added to metro Melbourne and even then i think it’s a silly decision, why can’t somewhere be a satellite city, why does it have to be absorbed by Melbourne, especially when there’s paddocks of nothing between the edge of Melbourne and Melton. Even the new estates connecting the two are sparse and just rows of houses, not a continuous flow of suburbs with amenities expected of a suburb.
Nepean and Yan Yean are in the same boat in that most of the population of the seat probably live in metro Melbourne but in terms of area most is outside of metro Melbourne.
The metro Melbourne boundaries are also shaped weird around the Yan Yean area, there’s a corridor that includes Plenty and Yarrambat where the metro boundaries go around it and area further out are in metro but they aren’t

The budget will be a net negative in this seat. Besides the private school tax, I don’t think the land tax increases will be too popular in this seat compared to others, with an older and more stable population with many having investment properties.

The preselection battle will be interesting seeing that there are two competing factions. According to the above comments, the branches here are controlled by right-wing conservatives. If they preselect one of their own, it will be nasty for Pesutto unless the nominee calls a truce and aligns with Pesutto. If the conservative wins the by-election, they may be grateful for Pesutto and actually ally with him. If a moderate or Pesutto ally gets preselected, there could be a march of disaffected Liberals to Family First or whatever minor right-wing party there is. Ironically, voting for a minor right party will split the right-wing vote and even send some preferences to Labor. Pesutto could be gone if the Liberals falter.

Labor will win it, no matter their competency level, because the Victorian Liberals are the most incompetent branch out of all the LNP, ALP, and Greens state/territory branches. Even a Lib insider told me that Labor is going to win the by-election and their members are leaving en masse. This goes out to you Mick, 70 seats will likely be a reality in 2026. It’s Aston all over again!

It’s possible for a moderate to get preselected since it’s not just the local rank and file voting but also delegates from the wider party which could tip the balance but in such a scenario, expect the fight to be ugly. If a conservative gets preselected, the rank and file as a whole would be happy but it will give Pesutto major headaches. Unfortunately I doubt that such a candidate would call it a truce given how much SkyNews and other hard right conservatives bash Pesutto whenever they can.

Adam
Mornington Peninsula was designated as Metropolitan during lockdowns. Thanks for that on Berwick. I think Ashwood, having some Kooyong overlap, doesn’t cut the mustard as double red. Lara is the 37th such seat.

I read somewhere that federal Labor will go after various marginals to shore up their majority next election because Mark McGowan’s gone and they may not hold onto their WA gains nor flip QLD Labor seats. Menzies was specifically named as one of their target marginals. Menzies’s margin is much lower than what Aston’s was before the Aston by-election. If Dutton is as toxic people say he is, Menzies as well as Deakin and Casey are at risk. Warrandyte could be the litmus test seat to test out Labor’s competitiveness.

Dan Andrews’s career doesn’t rest much on the by-election result. He’s on a high note. Vic Labor overpeformed in the eastern suburbs at the state election. Add to that, federal Labor scored an upset win in Aston in April. A swing to the Liberals at the by-election may be seen as a calibration.

If Labor wins, Pesutto could be gone as early as the following week. The silver lining for him is that nothing will stop him from making a comeback in 2025 or 2026 in time for the next election.

Tim Smith should be the candidate and then immediately challenge dead man walking Pesutto for the leadership.

Tim Smith should really run for Cranbourne as he predicted that it will be there new Liberal stronghold and could replace seats such as Kew.

Just before I get into this, I have a complaint. I have noticed lately I have been seeing inappropriate ads from a company named Temu on this website, I’m not sure if there is much the owner of this website can do, but I contacted google and they aren’t doing a thing, and this is really getting on my nerves. You can’t block ads on Iphone.

Anyway, Did Tim Smith really suggest Cranbourne would be a liberal seat? Tell shifty hes dreaming, there is no way this religious conservatism plays well in any of those sort of seats.

Tim Smith, please run here, it gives Labor an extra seat, you will be defeated easily. This would be a massive gift to Labor, and an opportunity for a 2021 WA style wipeout in 2026 considering they will shift further to the right and remove Pessuto. And the Nats may call it the quits in the coalition if the disunity continues.

Why isn’t Tim Smith brave enough to run in Kooyong in 2025? Oh because he would lose 60-40? He makes Katherine Deves look like a saint.

@ Daniel T
I have just included the link for you on Tim Smith’s comments about Cranbourne. Just for the record i am not saying the Libs will never win Cranbourne again. They came close in 2010 and in 2014 but to win the seat they will need to overperform their 2010 result. Prahran now that has been won by the Greens is harder to win back for the Libs IMHO so they will target Cranbourne but the issue is not whether they will win the seat, the question is whether they can turn it into a heartland seat to replace Kew, Malvern etc that part i am a bit less confident about. I feel a seat like Cranbourne will not be a stronghold for either party and will move with the statewide tide as it has as an Urban seat since 2002 so it will be a bit like the NSW state seat of Penrith which moved with the tide and when back to Labor in March narrowly. I predict Penrith will follow the statewide trend. After the May 2022 result in Lindsay, some predicted maybe it is permanently lost for the Labor party and was now a post-teal heartland. I am not too sure to be honest, i personally feel it is too socially mixed to be heartland for either party. Labor did very well in Londonderry in March and also the parts of Penrith LGA in McMahon (Erksine Park, St Clair) actually had a swing to Labor (and were Red) while those same booths at a state level remained blue in Tanya Davies seat.

https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/outsiders/an-affluent-political-amateur-outcampaigned-the-liberal-party-tim-smith/video/e8a62b34ecbf7bbc11b26be59477dce0

The reason he will not run in Kooyong is that he has already suggested that this area is not worth fighting for. The Question is is Warrandyte affluent and more like Kew or is it a battler working class area.

Probably agree Nimalan, Cranbourne is similar to Penrith with both being major centres located in the fringes of the metropolitan area. The only reason I can think of that might explain why Melissa McIntosh holds Lindsay with a safer margin is her personal vote, she may be seen as more of a ‘moderate’ and doesn’t attempt to engage in scaremongering tactics like other right faction Liberal MPs. In a sense, she could be like former Liberal MP Jackie Kelly who remained popular and held onto this swing seat until she retired.

@ Yoh An
Good comparison between Penrith and Cranbourne. While i think there are a lot of comparisons there is are two caveats i would provide when comparing them ethnic diversity and booth variance. Cranbourne being a recent growth corridor is very ethnically diverse by contrast for the most part Penrith LGA is quite anglo the exception being the growth areas of Caddens and Jordan Springs which is outside the state seat of Penrith. Also if we compare the two state seats, Cranbourne does not have clear pattern in booth results and tends to be quite homogeneous geographically like Bentleigh whilst Penrith is more divided with an East/west divide. I often use Frankston instead to compare to Penrith which is very Anglo and has a clear social divide. However, if we compare Casey LGA and Penrith LGA then there are quite a few comparisons as both areas include semi-rural, very affluent areas, middle class areas and some of the most deprived areas in both cities.

@Daniel T: It has been reported that Tim Smith won’t run for Warrandyte. However, he has backed former IPA head John Roskam, saying “he’s actually a genuine Liberal, an honest and decent human being, with a fierce intellect, which is obviously sorely lacking in the Victorian Parliamentary Liberal Party”. Roskam had previously been endorsed by Sky News host Peta Credlin. Could he get an even worse endorsement, maybe from people such as Tony Abbott and Moira Deeming? https://twitter.com/rwillingham/status/1666203831586418688?s=20

@joseph no guesses who you voted for at the last election

John Roskam is likely to galvanise the support from the right of the party which will play well with the local branch members. Interesting to note he lost preselection to John Pesutto in 2014 so his preselection would not be in Pesutto’s interest.

@Dan M
He also lost Hawthorn preselection to John Pesutto in 2022, so not once but twice.

Actually, disregard what I said.

Quite a lot of names in the ring for Lib preselection. Obviously some of them have absolutely zero chance but it will be interesting to see who comes out at the top.

There will be a Liberal preselection battle. Some names touted were defeated candidates from the last state election. I also read that Simon Holmes a Court’s nephew, who is just 18, will consider running as an independent. All hearsay at the moment.

I wonder if Labor will preselect Naomi Oakley again. She ran in 2022 in Menzies at the federal election and in Warrandyte at the state election. It would save them some preselection hassles.