NAT 12.9% vs ALP
Incumbent MP
Terry Redman, since 2013. Previously Member for Stirling 2005-2008, Member for Blackwood-Stirling 2008-2013.
Geography
Warren-Blackwood covers a large expanse of south-western Western Australia, stretching from Margaret River to Denmark.Warren-Blackwood covers the Nannup, Bridgetown-Greenbushes, Boyup Brook, Manjimup, Plantagenet and Denmark council areas along with the southern half of the Augusta-Margaret River council area and part of the Donnybrook-Balingup council area..
Redistribution
Warren-Blackwood expanded to take in Balingup and Mullalyup from Collie-Preston. This reduced the Nationals margin from 13.4% to 12.9%.
History
The current seat of Warren-Blackwood was effectively created in 2008 following the passage of one-vote-one-value laws that reduced the number of electorates in regional Western Australia. In 2008, the Liberal-held seat of Warren-Blackwood and the Nationals-held seat of Stirling were merged as Blackwood-Stirling, which was renamed to Warren-Blackwood in 2013.
The original Warren-Blackwood was first created as the seat of Warren in 1950. The seat was held by a succession of Labor MPs from 1950 until 1989, when it was won by Liberal candidate Paul Omodei.
Omodei held his seat throughout the 1990s, serving as a minister in the Court government. The seat was renamed Warren-Blackwood in 1996.
Omodei became deputy leader of the Liberal Party following the 2005 election, and then became leader in 2006. He only lasted as leader until 2007, stepping down without facing an election. When Warren-Blackwood was merged with a neighbouring Nationals-held seat, Omodei planned to move to a winnable seat representing the South West in the upper house, but he was demoted to the unwinnable fourth position, which led to him resigning from the Liberal Party in 2008.
The seat of Stirling was held by the Country Party and National Party for its entire history, since its creation in 1950. The fifth MP to win the seat was Terry Redman, who was elected in 2005 for the Nationals.
Redman shifted to the new seat of Blackwood-Stirling in 2008, and joined the ministry of the new government. In 2013, he was re-elected in the renamed seat of Warren-Blackwood. Redman was elected leader of the Nationals at the end of 2013, and stepped down from the leadership in August 2016. Redman was re-elected in Warren-Blackwood in 2017.
Candidates
- Paul Da Silva (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
- Nick Lethbridge (Independent)
- Jeff Pow (Greens)
- Marie O’Dea (Liberal)
- Jane Kelsbie (Labor)
- Terry Redman (Nationals)
- Steven Regterschot (One Nation)
- Helen Allan (No Mandatory Vaccination)
- Peter Strachan (Sustainable Australia)
Assessment
Warren-Blackwood is a safe Nationals seat.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Terry Redman | Nationals | 8,639 | 36.6 | -1.2 | 36.3 |
| Hugh Litson | Labor | 4,854 | 20.6 | +5.9 | 20.7 |
| Ross Woodhouse | Liberal | 3,703 | 15.7 | -11.7 | 15.8 |
| Andrew Huntley | Greens | 3,391 | 14.4 | -1.3 | 14.5 |
| Greg Moroney | One Nation | 1,641 | 7.0 | +7.0 | 6.9 |
| Marc Deas | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 1,344 | 5.7 | +5.7 | 5.7 |
| 0.1 | |||||
| Informal | 1,080 | 4.4 |
2017 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Terry Redman | Nationals | 14,942 | 63.4 | 62.9 | |
| Hugh Litson | Labor | 8,622 | 36.6 | 37.1 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into five parts. Polling places in the Augusta-Margaret River and Denmark council areas have been each grouped together. Those in the Manjimup and Plantagenet council areas have been grouped as “Central” and “East”, with the remainder grouped as “North”.
The Nationals won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against Labor) in all five areas, ranging from 54.8% in Augusta-Margaret River to 73% in the centre.
The Liberal vote peaked at 21% in Augusta-Margaret River, and the Greens vote peaked at 23.4% in the same area.
| Voter group | LIB prim % | GRN prim % | NAT 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Augusta-Margaret River | 20.9 | 23.4 | 54.8 | 4,700 | 19.5 |
| North | 15.7 | 11.4 | 57.9 | 3,796 | 15.8 |
| Central | 16.1 | 6.1 | 73.2 | 3,436 | 14.3 |
| Denmark | 10.6 | 21.9 | 59.4 | 3,054 | 12.7 |
| East | 11.7 | 7.4 | 68.7 | 2,104 | 8.7 |
| Pre-poll | 15.4 | 10.6 | 65.5 | 2,610 | 10.8 |
| Other votes | 15.8 | 15.1 | 61.3 | 4,373 | 18.2 |
Election results in Warren-Blackwood at the 2017 WA state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Nationals vs Labor), Liberal primary votes and Greens primary votes.
Maybe a long term target for The Greens if at an election there was the combination of a swing against Labor, a swing against the Nationals and a favorable redistribution which puts Dunsborough and Yallingup in this seat.
For now this is staying with the Nationals.
This seat seems a lot like Ballina/Lismore in NSW, but the Greens just haven’t been able to leverage their base into a winning position. Getting Cowaramup and Yallingup would help but there’s no winning with large areas of single digit vote.
The Greens have a huge opportunity to win seats with an obviously not progressive ALP government, no risk of a hung parliament, and a decent chance of Liberal preferences. But you can tell when the Greens are actually trying to win a seat, and I’m not seeing it (online) in any LH seat. My prediction is the Greens will lose in M&P, gain in South Metro, and they’ll make the runoff in Fremantle and maybe Maylands.
Without a serious Green push, nothing to see here. Nat retain.
completely agreed, long term target for greens but only when labor are doing well. The seat is pretty solidly conservative when elections are closer. Greens not running facebook advertising in any lower house seats this election is an interesting choice but probably the correct one, considering its almost impossible for them to win anywhere.
The Greens may well be doing online advertising. What I meant is that from what I can tell online (on the other side of the country), the Greens aren’t exactly running a huge campaign. They’re doing some doorknocking etc. but they aren’t hyping up any lower house seats as winnable. Maybe it’s different on the ground.
I lived in this seat last election and I can recall seeing no more Green corflute signs than ones for One Nation and The Nationals, in fact most of the campaigning here seemed to be focused around the upper house.
I assume with similar factors at play (a near universal expectation of a swing to Labor, National margin of 10%+ etc.) the on the ground campaigning would be pretty similar this time round.
The base for The Greens is certainly here, and if my previous comment came to fruition, they can pull off a victory.
Warren-Blackwood has pretty much all the strong Green towns in the SW bundled up into one seat, but it’s also got places like Manjimup, where tree-huggers are hated with a passion. Pretend you’re a north Queensland cop with a crowbar in a room full of Aboriginals, and you’re only scratching the surface of how much these people hate greenies. Logging towns can be scary places.
Timber workers vote kept this Labor till 1989 but times change.
But how much of the Green vote will be lost to the anti-vaxxers?
Apparently a third of the kids in Denmark are unvaccinated. One of the lowest rates in the country.
Looking at other similar situations (e.g. “Involuntary Medication Objectors” running in the federal seat of Richmond 2019), not much, and it will be irrelevant anyway after preferences. In the Byron Shire booths, sometimes the anti-vaxxers would get as high as 5% (Mullumbimby) and the Greens still got 44%. I expect “No Mandatory Vaccination”, who are running in every seat, will get their highest vote here, but they won’t get their deposit back.
It might be more of a concern in the South West region of the legislative council, with both Health Australia Party and No Mandatory Vaccination preferencing PHON, Shooters and Nats over Greens. However the effect of hippie towns will be pretty diluted across the region. The biggest risk of an anti-vaxxer getting up is the Health Australia Party candidate in Agricultural, who gets the Druery Snowball, plus the preferences of Labor and The Greens (who didn’t preference each other in that region).
I don’t think people are talking about this electorate enough. If the swing is anything like what polls are suggesting than this should be very close. its one of the few electorates which was more labor leaning at the federal level than at the last state election. for example denmark was ALP 56 in 2019 and ALP 43 in 2017. tourism in the area has been very strong throughout the last year and there been some movement of people to the area.
Terry Redman seems to be a strong candidate and Labor appear to be running close to dead, but even then I could see this as a sneaky pickup as many people in the area would have been happy with McGowans performance.
The Nationals in WA seem to excel in local politics the same way the Greens do over east.
They can, unhinged from any restrictive Coalition agreements, act like independents and take full and undeserved credit for anything a governmemt does that they like, while carping performatively about anything they think the locals might disagree wiith.
Its why i think all expect tomorrow’s swing to be softer in National electorates then Liberal
NMV cracked 5% in Margaret River. With almost 1300 formal voters, you can’t pretend that’s a fluke of small numbers. Also 4.4% nearby at Witchliffe. Legalise Cannabis also did well at both booths, so that’s almost 10% for *cough* alternative lifestyle parties in the Margs area.
Y’all were so wrong about this seat! xD
I was right though!
“even then I could see this as a sneaky pickup”, “this should be very close”
My defense is that I was more caught up with the idea of The Greens winning the seat, but still didn’t see this one coming. It’s pretty odd that this seat, and not North West Central is the one Labor stand the best chance in at the moment, though be careful jumping the gun, still a decent chunk of the vote left to count
Labor should never have been in the contest here. Terry was competing against an empty chair until February!!!
When it was called Warren in much better times labor used to win here… Now much more anti labor. … If you translate state to. Federal think the. Libs win only curtin.
Warren was held for Labor on timber-workers vote but now it’s the hipsters of Margaret River that won it…times change!
Maybe the Nationals got too comfortable with this seat. It is a seat like this that can quickly become an issue for the Nationals / Libs (i.e. Albany)
The Nats’ 2PP margin last time was a bit of a red herring. Based on the 2013 boundaries, the Nats only had 27.8% of the primary vote in 2008 (when the seat was introduced, to the east of where it is now), before getting 33.5% (37.9% on 2017 redist), 36.6% (36.3% on 2021 redist) and now 32.7%. The problem, like everywhere else, is that the Liberal vote collapsed. In 2013 Redman nearly lost the seat to the Liberals, and the ALP only got 15%, finishing fourth.