Roe – WA 2021

NAT 13.6% vs LIB

Incumbent MP
Peter Rundle, since 2017.

Geography
South-eastern Western Australia. Roe covers southern parts of the Wheatbelt, and then stretches further east to also cover Esperance.

Redistribution
Roe gained Jerramungup council area from Albany and lost Cuballing, Kulin and Wickepin council areas from Central Wheatbelt. This reduced the Nationals margin from 14.4% to 13.6%.

History
The current seat of Roe was created in 2017, primarily as a successor to Wagin, which had existed since 1989, when it replaced Narrogin and Katanning-Roe. Narrogin had been created in 1950, when the original seat of Wagin was abolished. From the 1920s until today, the seats named Wagin and Narrogin have almost always been held by the Country and National parties.

There was also a previous seat of Roe which was primarily replaced by Eyre in 2008. Roe had a long history of being held by the Country/National parties until 1974, and again since 1989, but the seat in this area was won by the Liberal Party in 2005.

Nationals candidate Peter Rundle won Roe in 2017.

Candidates

  • Gary Jammu (Waxit)
  • David Dwyer (Liberal)
  • Brad Willis (Labor)
  • Nikki Starr (Greens)
  • Graham Bushby (One Nation)
  • Bevan Steele (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
  • Peter Rundle (Nationals)
  • Nita Thakrar (No Mandatory Vaccination)
  • Cathie Kelly (Australian Christians)

Assessment
Roe is a safe Nationals seat.

2017 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Peter Rundle Nationals 9,553 42.5 -13.2 41.7
Graham Jacobs Liberal 5,383 23.9 -2.8 24.6
Bradley Willis Labor 3,203 14.2 +3.4 14.6
Eketerina Zacklova One Nation 1,792 8.0 +8.0 8.0
Peter Stacey Shooters, Fishers & Farmers 1,182 5.3 +5.3 5.1
Simone McInnes Greens 759 3.4 -0.4 3.4
Cathie Kelly Australian Christians 536 2.4 -0.6 2.3
Tony Fels Independent 76 0.3 +0.3 0.3
Informal 883 3.8

2017 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Peter Rundle Nationals 14,474 64.4 -2.3 63.6
Graham Jacobs Liberal 7,997 35.6 +2.3 36.4

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: east, north-west and south-west.

The Nationals won a slim 54% majority in the east (which was previously contained in the Liberal seat of Eyre) while they won over 70% in the north-west and south-west.

Voter group ALP prim % NAT 2CP % Total votes % of votes
East 15.7 54.0 4,881 22.6
North-West 13.6 71.4 4,133 19.1
South-West 16.1 73.3 3,347 15.5
Pre-poll 13.8 62.3 5,189 24.0
Other votes 13.9 62.5 4,068 18.8

Election results in Roe at the 2017 WA state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Nationals vs Liberal) and Labor primary votes.

1 COMMENT

  1. Labor will make it to 2nd here and in Moore (like in Central Wheatbelt 2017) but it will be little more than a curiosity

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