Kalamunda – WA 2021

ALP 2.4%

Incumbent MP
Matthew Hughes, since 2017.

Geography
Eastern Perth. Kalamunda covers suburbs between Canning Mills and Parkerville, including Kalamunda, Gooseberry Hill, Lesmurdie, Mundaring, Pickering Brook, Walliston, Carmel and Darlington. Most of the seat is in Kalamunda local government area, on the Darling Range, along with parts in the Gosnells and Mundaring council areas.

Redistribution
Kalamunda expanded to the east, taking in the remainder of Mundaring and Pickering Brook from Darling Range. These changes slightly reduced the Labor margin from 2.5% to 2.4%.

History
Kalamunda was created as a new seat in 2008. A previous seat with the same name existed from 1974 to 1989. The seat and its neighbour, Darling Range, have occasionally replaced each other in redistributions and on a number of occasions have had members switch from one seat to the other. Both seats had been won at every election by the Liberal Party for over 50 years, until 2017.

Ian Thompson moved to Kalamunda in 1974 after Darling Range was abolished. He had been elected to Darling Range in 1971. Darling Range was restored in 1977, but Thompson held Kalamunda until it was abolished in 1989. He then moved to Darling Range and held it for one term, although he finished his term as an independent after resigning from the Liberal Party in 1990.

In 1993, Thompson was succeeded as Member for Darling Range by John Day. Day held Darling Range for fifteen years, being re-elected in 1996, 2001 and 2005.

In 2008, Kalamunda was restored as a seat name, taking over a large part of the former seat of Darling Range. Day moved to Kalamunda and was re-elected, and won the seat again in 2013.

A 12.7% swing swept out Day in 2017, electing Labor candidate Matthew Hughes.

Candidates

  • Carolyn Trigwell (Liberal Democrats)
  • Matthew Hughes (Labor)
  • Robert Ellis (Waxit)
  • Michael Fane (No Mandatory Vaccination)
  • Lee-Anne Miles (Greens)
  • Liam Staltari (Liberal)
  • Stephen Phelan (Western Australia Party)
  • Maureen Butters (One Nation)
  • Brady Williams (Australian Christians)

Assessment
Kalamunda is a traditional Liberal seat, but current polling suggests Labor is in a strong enough position to hold this seat.

2017 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
John Day Liberal 8,768 37.5 -12.2 37.6
Matthew Hughes Labor 8,683 37.1 +13.9 37.0
Lee-Anne Miles Greens 3,039 13.0 +3.6 12.7
Ray Gould One Nation 1,691 7.2 +7.2 7.3
Brady Williams Australian Christians 653 2.8 +0.1 2.7
Murray Bowyer Matheson for WA 305 1.3 +1.3 1.2
Evazelia Colyvas Micro Business 234 1.0 +1.0 1.0
0.5
Informal 939 3.9

2017 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Matthew Hughes Labor 12,268 52.5 +12.7 52.4
John Day Liberal 11,100 47.5 -12.7 47.6

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.

Labor won a large 59.3% majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the north, while the Liberal Party won smaller majorities in the south (51.2%) and centre (50.9%).

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 10.3% in the south to 16% in the north.

Voter group GRN prim % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
North 16.0 59.3 6,571 26.3
South 10.3 48.8 5,549 22.2
Central 11.9 49.1 4,626 18.5
Other votes 12.8 50.9 5,730 22.9
Pre-poll 10.8 51.0 2,543 10.2

Election results in Kalamunda at the 2017 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

8 COMMENTS

  1. Senior Health Minster John Day had his 24 year political career ended last election. Day unwavering support for Colin Barnett to continue as premier, and not look for renewal was maybe a mistake in hindsight.

    This is the type of seat not if but when it goes back to the Liberals. But it isn’t likely going to be this election, as the swing is likely going to exceed the previous. Factors such as the sophomore surge, and the fact this seat isn’t getting much talk about reverting back to the Liberals would probably point to Labor retaining.

    Interestingly Matthew Hughes won this seat last election for Labor and started his state political career in his late 60’s. Not that I’m saying is a bad thing.

  3. Interesting to note that the Liberal candidate is putting a lot of money in to facebook advertising in this seat, will be curious to see if it has any effect on the margin in the end, but obviously it would be a shock if labor didnt build on their margin here this election.

  5. Why would they lose this if they are almost certain to take back Darling Range? It would be a bigger upset than Trump winning the election in 2016 and Morrison winning in 2019 for the LIBS to have a net gain of seats

  6. Kalamunda was more liberal leaning than Darling Range in the 2017 state election. If Darling Range is close than I would expect Kalamunda would be as well. It is hard to tell if Darling Range is even competitive this election without seat polling or recent state level polling.

  7. Darling Range (as currently drawn) is largely new suburbia (Byford), therefore more swingy than Kalamunda. Under normal circumstances Kalamunda would be one of the first seats the Libs get back; maybe not 2021, but certainly the first time they’re even vaguely competitive. Darling Range is a chance for them just because they won it back in a by-election under specific circumstances, but if there’s a big swing it’ll go with the tide and stay Labor until they lose government.

  8. I should have elaborated in my earlier comment. The Libs have been campaigning here for almost a year now and are spending a lot $ on online advertising. I think Kirkup was campaigning at Kalamunda today and they seem to have a lot of volunteers on pre-poll. I have spend some time at the pre-poll for another Party and there seems a lot of people who are exclusively taking Lib HTVs. That’s a lot different to other pre-polls I have been.

    There is no doubt that Labor will gain seats but I there is one they could lose, I think it will be Kalamunda.

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