ALP 20.5%
Incumbent MP
John Quigley, since 2013. Previously Member for Innaloo 2001-2005, Member for Mindarie 2005-2013.
Geography
Outer north of Perth. Butler stretches along the coast at the northern edge of Perth, from Merriwa to Two Rocks, and also covering Yanchep, Butler and Ridgewood. The seat covers the north-western corner of Wanneroo council area.
Redistribution
Butler contracted slightly, losing Quinns Rocks and Jindalee to Burns Beach. This change increased the Labor margin from 19.5% to 20.5%.
History
The seat of Butler was created in 2013, taking in parts of the former seat of Mindarie, which had existed since 2005.
The Labor MP John Quigley won Mindarie in 2005, after winning the seat of Innaloo in 2001. Quigley was re-elected in Mindarie in 2008, and won Butler in 2013 and 2017.
Candidates
- John Quigley (Labor)
- Raj Bawa (Waxit)
- Linda Aitken (Liberal)
- Elizabeth Kamara (Greens)
- P Becker (No Mandatory Vaccination)
- Katrina Hildebrandt (Australian Christians)
Assessment
Butler is a safe Labor seat.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| John Quigley | Labor | 13,392 | 55.9 | +10.7 | 57.4 |
| Linda Aitken | Liberal | 5,006 | 20.9 | -23.6 | 20.2 |
| Susan Hoddinott | One Nation | 2,131 | 8.9 | +8.9 | 8.9 |
| Tom Webster | Greens | 1,659 | 6.9 | -1.5 | 6.4 |
| Jan van Niekerk | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 884 | 3.7 | +3.7 | 3.7 |
| Ryno Joubert | Australian Christians | 439 | 1.8 | FALSE | 1.7 |
| Ola Sommer | Micro Business | 231 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 0.9 |
| Ron Smith | Matheson for WA | 224 | 0.9 | +0.9 | 0.9 |
| Informal | 1,226 | 4.9 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| John Quigley | Labor | 16,641 | 69.4 | +18.5 | 70.5 |
| Linda Aitken | Liberal | 7,321 | 30.6 | -18.5 | 29.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into north and south.
Labor won over 70% of the two-party-preferred vote in both areas.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 70.8 | 9,032 | 45.0 |
| North | 72.7 | 4,240 | 21.1 |
| Pre-poll | 68.9 | 2,360 | 11.8 |
| Other votes | 68.5 | 4,453 | 22.2 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Butler at the 2017 WA state election
Expect this to be split into 2 seats by the 2029 or 2033 elections, based on population growth (there’s a reason the train is being extended to Yanchep)
Can someone from WA enlighten me why this seat has such a high Labor margin? (they held on just in the bloodbath of 2013), considering its a) coastal and b) lies completely within the (safe-ish) Federal electorate of Pearce. I’m not familiar with this part of Perth.
@echt
Aside from Labor’s massive victory last time, John Quigley is a popular MLA. This would have voted Liberal on federal figures in 2013 and 2019. WA voters are a bit like QLD voters in terms of splitting their votes between federal and state elections.
Echt: partly because it’s outer suburban. The last seat out on the edge of the metro area tends to be held by whoever’s in government, whichever party. Thirty years ago Hillarys was the end of Perth, and it was a swing seat. One day there’ll be suburbia all the way to Yanchep, and an extra seat in this part of Perth: whichever seat has Clarkson in it will still be Labor, while the Alkimos / Yanchep end will be winnable by the Libs next time they win an election. (By which time John Quigley will have retired.)