NAT 6.9% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Terry Redman, since 2013. Previously Member for Stirling 2005-2008, Member for Blackwood-Stirling 2008-2013.
Geography
Warren-Blackwood covers a large expanse of south-western Western Australia, stretching from Margaret River to Denmark.Warren-Blackwood covers the Nannup, Bridgetown-Greenbushes, Boyup Brook, Manjimup, Plantagenet and Denmark council areas along with the southern half of the Augusta-Margaret River council area.
Redistribution
Warren-Blackwood shifted west, gaining Plantagenet council (and some surrounding areas) from the seat of Wagin, and losing Donnybrook-Balingup council to Collie-Preston. The seat also expanded slightly in the area near Margaret River, taking territory from Vasse. These changes increased the Nationals margin from 3.1% to 6.9%.
History
The current seat of Warren-Blackwood was effectively created in 2008 following the passage of one-vote-one-value laws that reduced the number of electorates in regional Western Australia. In 2008, the Liberal-held seat of Warren-Blackwood and the Nationals-held seat of Stirling were merged as Blackwood-Stirling, which was renamed to Warren-Blackwood in 2013.
The original Warren-Blackwood was first created as the seat of Warren in 1950. The seat was held by a succession of Labor MPs from 1950 until 1989, when it was won by Liberal candidate Paul Omodei.
Omodei held his seat throughout the 1990s, serving as a minister in the Court government. The seat was renamed Warren-Blackwood in 1996.
Omodei became deputy leader of the Liberal Party following the 2005 election, and then became leader in 2006. He only lasted as leader until 2007, stepping down without facing an election. When Warren-Blackwood was merged with a neighbouring Nationals-held seat, Omodei planned to move to a winnable seat representing the South West in the upper house, but he was demoted to the unwinnable fourth position, which led to him resigning from the Liberal Party in 2008.
The seat of Stirling was held by the Country Party and National Party for its entire history, since its creation in 1950. The fifth MP to win the seat was Terry Redman, who was elected in 2005 for the Nationals.
Redman shifted to the new seat of Blackwood-Stirling in 2008, and joined the ministry of the new government. In 2013, he was re-elected in the renamed seat of Warren-Blackwood. Redman was elected leader of the Nationals at the end of 2013, and stepped down from the leadership in August 2016.
Candidates
- Marc Deas (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
- Terry Redman (Nationals)
- Greg Moroney (One Nation)
- Andrew Huntley (Greens)
- Hugh Litson (Labor)
- Ross Woodhouse (Liberal)
Assessment
Warren-Blackwood is likely to stay in Nationals hands, but the Liberal Party could be a contender depending on the campaign.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Terry Redman | Nationals | 7,439 | 33.5 | +5.7 | 37.9 |
| Ray Colyer | Liberal | 6,699 | 30.2 | -3.5 | 27.7 |
| Nerilee Boshammer | Greens | 3,612 | 16.3 | +1.2 | 15.4 |
| John Thorpe | Labor | 3,331 | 15.0 | -3.2 | 14.6 |
| Louie Scibilia | Independent | 425 | 1.9 | +1.9 | 1.2 |
| Phillip Douglass | Family First | 403 | 1.8 | +0.2 | 1.6 |
| K Redman | Independent | 273 | 1.2 | +1.2 | 1.1 |
| Australian Christians | 0.5 | ||||
| Informal | 1,322 | 5.6 |
2013 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Terry Redman | Nationals | 11,769 | 53.1 | -7.0 | 56.9 |
| Ray Colyer | Liberal | 10,393 | 46.9 | +7.0 | 43.0 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Ray Colyer | Liberal | 14,542 | 65.6 | +4.8 | 66.0 |
| John Thorpe | Labor | 7,637 | 34.4 | -4.8 | 34.0 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into five parts. Polling places in the Augusta-Margaret River and Denmark council areas have been each grouped together. Those in the Manjimup and Plantagenet council areas have been grouped as “Central” and “East”, with the remainder grouped as “North”.
The Nationals won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against the Liberal Party) in all five areas, ranging from 61.6% in Augusta-Margaret River to 72% in the centre.
Labor and the Greens polled a similar vote, but in very different patterns. The Greens vote ranged from 24.8% in Augusta-Margaret River and 23% in Denmark down to 8% in the centre and east, while the Labor vote ranged from 12.6% in the centre to 15.3% in the Augusta-Margaret River area.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP % | NAT 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 8.0 | 12.6 | 72.1 | 4,052 | 18.6 |
| Augusta-Margaret River | 24.8 | 15.3 | 61.6 | 4,031 | 18.5 |
| North | 12.8 | 15.0 | 68.7 | 3,527 | 16.1 |
| Denmark | 23.2 | 14.6 | 61.8 | 3,002 | 13.7 |
| East | 8.1 | 15.0 | 67.7 | 2,248 | 10.3 |
| Pre-poll | 9.2 | 15.2 | 66.5 | 971 | 4.4 |
| Other votes | 15.6 | 15.4 | 64.0 | 4,012 | 18.4 |
Election results in Warren-Blackwood at the 2013 WA state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Nationals vs Liberal), Labor primary votes and Greens primary votes.
Could end up a NAT vs GRN seat, although the Greens actually winning would be incredibly difficult
I would expect the Greens will drop to fourth with the inevitable rebound in the Labor vote.
Ben: Balingup has a B, not a W. (Also in the Collie-Preston page.)
The Greens could easily come second here (particularly in a 2cp count), if the Lib vote crashes. Labor’s vote isn’t going anywhere, and any seat with Margs, Nannup and Denmark in it is always gonna be good for the Greens. (The 2013 version including Balingup was pretty much their dream boundaries – every hippy town in the south-west.)
Also, Redman will become the only WA Nat MP named Terry. There can only be one. 😛
The Nats should hold this pretty easily. Labor will probably come third pushing the Greens into fourth, although that being said I don’t imagine the Green vote will change that much and probably even rise a little.
Fascinating seat if you discount the boring most likely scenario of a Nats win. If the Nats vote completely tanks there’s almost a 5 party royale happening where if Labor, Greens and PHON pick up enough votes and the Lib/Nat’s deteriorate, then it’s who’s in front and when that becomes important.
Especially with the PHON htv selecting Libs over Nats, they could gain this despite being losing voters thanks also to Labour voters (would Greens split to Libs too? Think they did last election).
Admit it’s all unlikely, and really need someone with boots on the ground knowledge who is aware of the sentiment but may be an interesting night for Redman. If Libs vote tanks to <20% it's all moot anyway.
The Greens and Labor both put Libs ahead of Nats on their HTV cards in 2013, hence the 2cp swing being completely opposite to the primary swing. (The Greens even put the Libs ahead of Labor. It didn’t end up mattering, but still, huh?)
Redman has experience of winning off a small vote, back in Stirling in 2005. He got 21.7% and still won, against the Libs on 26.4%, 20% for Labor and 15% for an angry ex-Nat.
The 2001 result there was just as funny looking… the Nats got 38%, four others (ALP, ON, Grn and some other guy) scored in the teens, and there weren’t any minnows. The Greens came fifth and last with 12.5%, which is probably some really boring kinda record. (How many fifth place getters don’t lose their deposit? What’s the highest vote for a last place getter? I geek out about things like this. 😛 )
Greens are preferencing Nationals this time. They don’t seem to have been too active or getting too much media attention, but better than Labor who seem to be well and truly running dead. This would be a winnable Greens seat like Ballina in NSW if fracking could unite farmers and hippies.
I couldn’t find Greens HTV. If they’re preferencing Redman than it’s even more unlikely he’s toppled. Certainly can’t happen from the left which seems to be because they’re shooting themselves in the foot.
One Nation are claiming the Labor candidate here is from the Micro Business Party. Surely that’s an error just online and not on their print cards? I’d think that’d be illegal too.