LIB 10.9%
Incumbent MP
Paul Miles, since 2008.
Geography
Outer north of Perth. Wanneroo covers the suburbs of Carramar, Tapping, Ashby, Sinagra, Wanneroo, Hocking and Pearsall, in the centre of the Wanneroo council area, as well as less-populated areas further to the north.
Redistribution
Wanneroo shifted north, losing Wangara, Jandabup and Gnangara to West Swan, and gaining the inland parts of the seat of Butler, including Carabooda. The main centre of the seat’s population remains around Wanneroo, as those areas gained from Butler do not contain any existing polling places. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 11.1% to 10.9%.
History
Wanneroo was first created in 1989, and has gone to the party of government at every election since 1993.
In 1989, the seat of Joondalup was abolished and replaced by Wanneroo. Sitting Joondalup Labor MP Jackie Watkins moved to Wanneroo.
Liberal candidate Wayde Smith defeated Watkins in 1993. In 1996 he was denied preselection in 1996 and succeeded by fellow Liberal Iain MacLean.
MacLean lost the seat in 2001 to the ALP’s Dianne Guise.
Guise became the first Wanneroo MP to win a second term in 2005, before losing in 2008 to Liberal candidate Paul Miles.
Miles was re-elected in 2013.
Candidates
- Max Wilson (Independent)
- Robyn Treacy (Greens)
- Joseph Darcy (One Nation)
- Linley Pass (Australian Christians)
- Peter Rosengrave (Micro Business Party)
- Greg Macpherson (Julie Matheson for WA)
- Paul Miles (Liberal)
- Sabine Winton (Labor)
Assessment
The Liberal margin in Wanneroo appears sizeable, but Labor could stand a chance if they are close to winning the election statewide.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Paul Miles | Liberal | 11,932 | 55.7 | +11.8 | 55.5 |
| Brett Treby | Labor | 6,887 | 32.1 | -7.4 | 32.3 |
| Rob Phillips | Greens | 1,611 | 7.5 | -1.5 | 7.5 |
| Meg Birch | Australian Christians | 550 | 2.6 | +0.2 | 2.6 |
| Moyna Rapp | Family First | 446 | 2.1 | -1.0 | 2.0 |
| Informal | 1,504 | 6.6 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Paul Miles | Liberal | 13,089 | 61.1 | +10.2 | 60.9 |
| Brett Treby | Labor | 8,328 | 38.9 | -10.2 | 39.1 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.
The Liberal Party two-party-preferred vote ranged from 56.3% in the centre to 64.4% in the south.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 56.3 | 5,845 | 29.5 |
| North | 62.6 | 5,565 | 28.1 |
| South | 64.4 | 3,766 | 19.0 |
| Other votes | 61.8 | 3,485 | 17.6 |
| Pre-poll | 62.9 | 1,152 | 5.8 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Wanneroo at the 2013 WA state election
As per usual, whoever wins where will win the election. On another note, the profile for Joondalup isn’t working (gives me a 404 error).
Joondalup is fixed now.
Indeed there’s no reason to think Wanneroo won’t retain its exemplary bellwether record.
Unless of course the election is very tight.
Perth’s outer north generally tends to swing sharply, very much a bellwether seat this. If Labor do well on election night, Wanneroo as well as Burns Beach and Joondalup could all be won despite the large margin.
A ReachTEL seat poll has Labor ahead 54-46 here off a sample of 617.
Current odds for this seat on Sportsbet are 1.30 Labor.