ALP 4.1%
Incumbent MP
Roger Cook, since 2008.
Geography
Southern fringe of Perth. This seat covers northern parts of Kwinana local government area, including the suburbs of Medina, Calista, Leda, Parmelia and Orelia.
The seat also includes southern parts of Canning council area, including Aubin Grove, Hammond Park and Henderson.
Redistribution
Kwinana shifted north, losing Baldivis, Bertram and Wellard to the near seat of Baldivis, while gaining Henderson and Hammond Park from Cockburn and Aubin Grove from Jandakot. These changes cut the Labor margin over the Liberal Party from 11.8% to 4.1%. A larger portion of Kwinana has been moved into Baldivis, so for the purpose of comparison Kwinana is treated as a new seat and Baldivis is treated as the successor to the old Kwinana.
History
Kwinana was created as a very safe Labor seat in 2008 following the redistribution caused by the introduction of one-vote-one-value reforms.
The Labor candidate, Roger Cook, was challenged by local mayor Carol Adams, running as an independent. Despite the presumed margin, Adams came close to defeating Cook, polling 49.2% of the two-candidate vote. Adams again challenged Cook in 2013, but Cook won with a slightly larger margin, with 52.6% of the vote after preferences.
Candidates
- Roger Cook (Labor)
- Bianca Talbot (Liberal)
- Tim Taylor (One Nation)
- Eleanor Morel (Australian Christians)
- Jody Freeman (Greens)
- Joshua Hyde (Micro Business Party)
Assessment
Kwinana is held by Labor by a relatively modest margin. It is most likely that Labor will increase that margin thanks to a general statewide swing away from the government.
2013 result
| Party | % vote |
| Labor | 40.9 |
| Liberal | 36.7 |
| Greens | 6.8 |
| Others | 14.7 |
| Australian Christians | 1.0 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Party | % vote |
| Labor | 54.1 |
| Liberal | 45.9 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four parts: central, north and south.
There was massive variation in the two-party-preferred vote. Labor won a massive 70% majority in the south, which is the most populous part of the seat. The Liberal Party won smaller majorities in the other two areas: 56% in the north and 61% in the centre.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 70.1 | 6,618 | 35.2 |
| North | 43.6 | 5,258 | 28.0 |
| Central | 39.0 | 2,578 | 13.7 |
| Other votes | 50.1 | 3,069 | 16.3 |
| Pre-poll | 53.5 | 1,264 | 6.7 |
Election results in Kwinana at the 2013 WA state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and independent primary votes.
Ben, the indicative ALP/Lib margin in 2013 was 11.1% (not 1.1%). But for the independent challenge, Kwinana would have been Labor’s second safest seat.