LIB 17.1%
Incumbent MP
Joe Francis, since 2008.
Geography
South-eastern Perth. Jandakot covers eastern parts of Cockburn LGA, along with small parts of Canning and Melville council areas. The seat covers the suburbs of Atwell, Aubin Grove, Banjup, Leeming, Murdoch, North Lake and South Lake.
Redistribution
Jandakot shifted east, losing Bibra Lake to Willagee and Atwell and Aubin Grove to Kwinana. Jandakot then gained Canning Vale from Riverton and Southern River, as well as Piara Waters and Forrestdale from Darling Range. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 18.1% to 17.1%.
History
Jandakot in its current form was created at the 2008 election, but a seat of the same name previously existed from 1989 to 1996.
The original Jandakot was a safe Liberal seat, held by two successive Liberal MPs. The first, Barry MacKinnon, served as Opposition Leader before retiring in 1993. Mike Board won the seat in 1993.
In 1996, Jandakot was renamed to Murdoch and Board won that seat. He held it until 2005.
The restored seat of Jandakot was created as a notional Labor seat in 2008, but the seat was won by Liberal candidate Joe Francis. Francis was re-elected in 2013, and has served as a minister since the 2013 election.
Candidates
- Yaz Mubarakai (Labor)
- Francesca Gobbert (Animal Justice)
- Warnar Spyker (Australian Christians)
- Joe Francis (Liberal)
- Dorinda Cox (Greens)
- John Murphy (One Nation)
- Sat Samra (Micro Business Party)
Assessment
Jandakot is a safe Liberal seat.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Joe Francis | Liberal | 11,998 | 55.4 | +10.9 | 63.0 |
| Klara Andric | Labor | 7,834 | 36.1 | -0.9 | 28.1 |
| John Haynes | Greens | 1,841 | 8.5 | -3.2 | 7.2 |
| Australian Christians | 1.7 | ||||
| Informal | 1,351 | 5.9 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Joe Francis | Liberal | 12,584 | 58.1 | +6.2 | 67.1 |
| Klara Andric | Labor | 9,085 | 41.9 | -6.2 | 32.9 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts: north-east, south-east and west.
The Liberal two-party-preferred vote varied from 66% in the west to 71% in the south-east.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 7.0 | 66.0 | 7,439 | 39.4 |
| North-East | 5.3 | 70.1 | 3,988 | 21.1 |
| South-East | 7.2 | 71.1 | 3,204 | 17.0 |
| Other votes | 9.6 | 63.4 | 3,196 | 16.9 |
| Pre-poll | 8.9 | 62.0 | 1,074 | 5.7 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Jandakot at the 2013 WA state election
Safe on paper, but the new areas redistributed into Jandakot (Canning Vale/Piara Waters/Forrestdale), are new suburbs that the Liberals did VERY well in last time.
Nowhere near as safe as it looks.
Taking the margin at face value, Jandakot has basically become a safe seat at the expense of making Southern River marginal. (The text in the redistribution summary above is incorrect, the 2013 margin was 8.1%.)
With Joe Francis considered a likely future leader, that’s probably a trade-off the Libs are quite happy with.
According to Fairfax, some leaked Liberal polling is suggesting that Jandakot is very much in play. And if this is, then you’d think that the Libs are really going to be wiped out across the metro area.
Mind you, it also suggests that the ALP lead 57-43, which would be absolutely remarkable – a 14% swing from the last election, and if so, a couple of seats in the 15-20% range changing hands really wouldn’t be a shock.
Sample of one but an establishment Lib I know in Perth told me her formerly Hanson voting friends had dropped One Nation after Putin/vacc for other minors.
Jandakot to me has an unbelievably large Liberal margin for a seat that is full of new greenfields housing developments. While it has a western suburbs style margin on paper, it’s obviously not an old money seat.
I’d be expecting see close to the largest swings in the state here on Saturday. I would not be surprised to see the scenario of Labor winning here while more established seats with much smaller margins such as its neighbour Riverton or even Bicton remain with the Libs.
Some very non-uniform swings in Jandakot. Labor won the booths around Canning Vale and Piara Waters; exactly where the Liberal vote was strongest last time.
The swings have been more subdued around Leeming, where the Liberal vote has held up much like it has in neighbouring Riverton. That suggests the absentee vote may break towards the Liberals.
Well I was wrong about the absentees. Declaration votes have gone heavily in Labor’s favour. A 50-50 contest overnight is now at 51-49.
ABC is calling it. Bye bye Joe Francis.
David – those swings were expected. Canning Vale + Piara Waters is the new housing estate area of the electorate, used to be in Southern River which also had an enormous swing. It was always a question of whether the swing in the more established suburbs would big enough to tip it over the line. I didn’t think it would be (across Perth), but once it was the case in Bicton, Mt Lawley, Kingsley etc. Jandakot was next in line.
I take your point about the volatility of the mortgage belt; but it’s certainly unusual for your strongest booths at one election to be your weakest booths at the next.
It seemed to play havoc with the ABC’s matched booth model too. As I recall it was projecting a Liberal lead in Jandakot of 60-40 at one point.
It is unusual, but it was unusual for them to be so strong at the last election as well. Southern River had a primary swing of 18% to the Liberals in 2013.
They’ve basically replicated the mining boom in voting form.