LIB 11.8%
Incumbent MP
John Castrilli, since 2005.
Geography
Bunbury is a small seat just covering the Bunbury urban area, including Bunbury, Picton, Dalyellup, Glen Iris, College Grove, Davenport and Withers.
Redistribution
Bunbury shifted south, gaining Dalyellup from Collie-Preston and losing Australind to Murray-Wellington. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 13.1% to 11.8%.
History
The seat of Bunbury has existed since 1890. The seat has been dominated since the 1950s by the Liberal Party, but Labor has taken the seat on a number of occasions.
Labor’s Frederick Withers held Bunbury from 1924 until 1947. He was succeded by Liberal MP James Murray, who held the seat for one term until 1950. Labor’s Frank Guthrie held Bunbury from 1950 until 1955.
The Liberal Party held the seat continuously from 1955 until 1983. George Roberts represented Bunbury from 1955 until 1962, followed by Maurice Williams until 1973 and then John Sibson until 1983.
Labor’s Phil Smith won Bunbury in 1983, and held the seat for ten years until his defeat in 1993 by Liberal candidate Ian Osborne.
Osborne was re-elected in 1996, but lost in 2001 to Labor’s Tony Dean.
Dean held Bunbury for one term, and lost in 2005 to the Liberal Party’s John Castrilli. Castrilli was re-elected in 2008 and 2013, and has served as a minister since 2008.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP John Castrilli is not running for re-election.
- Ian Morison (Liberal)
- Sam Brown (One Nation)
- Anthony Shannon (Flux)
- Michael Baldock (Greens)
- Aldo Del Popolo (Micro Business Party)
- James Hayward (Nationals)
- Don Punch (Labor)
- Bernie Masters (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
Assessment
Bunbury is a reasonably safe Liberal seat, but with the retirement of the sitting MP there is a chance Labor could grab the seat if the election goes well.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| John Castrilli | Liberal | 10,375 | 52.7 | +0.7 | 51.8 |
| Karen Steele | Labor | 5,595 | 28.4 | -1.2 | 29.8 |
| James Forsyth | Nationals | 1,562 | 7.9 | +6.8 | 7.4 |
| Mitchella Hutchins | Greens | 1,250 | 6.4 | -2.6 | 6.3 |
| Linda Rose | Family First | 374 | 1.9 | -4.0 | 2.2 |
| Lui Alfa Canedoli | Independent | 285 | 1.4 | +1.4 | 1.2 |
| Edward Dabrowski | Australian Christians | 243 | 1.2 | -0.9 | 1.0 |
| Others | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 1,320 | 6.3 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| John Castrilli | Liberal | 12,420 | 63.1 | +2.0 | 61.8 |
| Karen Steele | Labor | 7,255 | 36.9 | -2.0 | 38.2 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts: north, south and east.
The Liberal two-party-preferred vote ranged from 59% in the east to 65.5% in the north.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 60.0 | 6,244 | 30.4 |
| North | 65.5 | 5,014 | 24.4 |
| East | 59.2 | 4,168 | 20.3 |
| Other votes | 64.5 | 3,519 | 17.1 |
| Pre-poll | 58.7 | 1,576 | 7.7 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Bunbury at the 2013 WA state election
I can’t see this seat tipping from the Liberals even with Castrilli gone. Since Labor last won the area has firmly entrenched itself as conservative. Will be interesting to see how close Labor do get. Their primary vote may end up being close, but with the Nats (who are running a strong campaign for some reason) likely to improve a bit and the ONP vote, it will be lost on 2PP anyway. Greens aren’t going to gain anything either to factor.
The Collie v Non-Collie seat to the east is much more interesting.
P.S Kinda pedantic but you’ve labelled the Eastern most trio of polling booths as “West”
This seat usually goes with a change of govt…….swing to labor overall 10% expected.With the loss of a popular MP could be won by labor
I think Bunbury is a microcosm of WA more broadly. I find it hard to see Labor winning government without winning Bunbury unless there is something substantive in Barnett’s insulation’s that electorates outside Perth might surprise.
*insinuations