Swan Hills – WA 2013

LIB 3.5%

Incumbent MP
Frank Alban, since 2008.

 

Geography
Outer North-West of Perth. Swan Hills is one of the geographically largest seats in Perth, sitting at the top of the East Metro Legislative Council region. It covers the northern parts of Swan council area and the eastern parts of Mundaring council area.

Redistribution
Swan Hills lost territory to West Swan and gained territory from Darling Range, moving to the east and south. There was no change in the margin.

History
Swan Hills has existed since 1989, and in that time has always been won by the party that forms government.

The seat was first won in 1989 by Labor MP Gavan Troy, who had held Mundaring since 1983. He retired in 1993 and was succeeded by Liberal candidate June van der Klashorst.

Van der Klashorst was re-elected in 1996 on improved boundaries. In 2001, she lost with a shock 11.7% swing to the Labor candidate Jaye Radisich.

Radisich retired in 2008, and the ALP ran sitting MLC Graham Giffard. He lost to the Liberal Party’s Frank Alban.

Candidates

Assessment
Alban should benefit from his own personal vote at this election. While he did not face the sitting MP in 2008, his opponent was a parliamentarian who would have benefited from some profile. Swan Hills is likely to become a stronger Liberal seat.

2008 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Frank Alban LIB 9,589 45.5 +6.3
Graham Giffard ALP 7,183 34.1 -11.1
Jenni Bowman GRN 3,009 14.3 +7.3
Craig Watson FF 734 3.5 +1.9
Keith Blok CDP 540 2.6 +0.1

2008 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Frank Alban LIB 11,268 53.5 +7.1
Graham Giffard ALP 9,777 46.5 -7.1

 

 

Polling booths in Swan Hills at the 2008 WA state election. North in orange, East in green, West in blue.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas: North, West and East. Booths in Swan local government area have been grouped as north, while booths in Mundaring local government area have been split into east and west.

The west and north are both about the same size, covering 40% of ordinary votes cast, while the east covers about 19%.

The Liberal Party topped the poll in all three areas, but the margin varied a large amount. Alban polled a majority of the primary vote and over 21% more than the ALP in the north, compared to a margin of 2.03% in the east. The Greens polled over 20% in the west and east compared to 12.5% in the north.

Voter group LIB % ALP % GRN % Total votes % of ordinary votes
West 41.46 32.25 20.26 5,700 40.83
North 51.70 30.36 12.48 5,602 40.13
East 38.90 36.87 20.20 2,658 19.04
Other votes 46.23 31.70 15.11 4,294
Liberal primary votes in Swan Hills at the 2008 WA state election.
Labor primary votes in Swan Hills at the 2008 WA state election.
Greens primary votes in Swan Hills at the 2008 WA state election.

4 COMMENTS

  3. Ellenbrook being transferred to West Swan should ensure that Swan Hills will stay in Liberal hands as the Ellenbrook railway line will not have as much clout

  4. I wouldn’t rule out Radisich… Alban is constantly putting his foot in it and the locals know it. Should be closer than predicted particularly with Radisich having door knocked ~5000 homes in the local area, plus doing extensive grassroots campaigning much like his sister did before him and who had a great reputation in the area.

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