LIB 2.7%
Incumbent MP
Albert Jacob, since 2008.
Geography
Northern Perth. The seat covers the suburbs of Ocean Reef, Mullaloo, Burns Beach, Kinross, Mindarie and parts of Currambine. The seat is a thin, coastal strip that takes in parts of Joondalup and Wanneroo council areas.
Redistribution
Ocean Reef previously only covered parts of Joondalup council, but in the redistribution the seat crossed the council boundary to take in Mindarie (previously in the seat of Mindarie, which was renamed Butler). The seat lost parts of Currambine to Joondalup and Kallaroo to Hillarys. The margin was cut from 4.4% to 2.7%.
History
Ocean Reef was created for the 2008 election – one of a number of new seats created in Perth due to one vote one value legislation.
The seat was created with a notional Labor majority, but thanks to a 6% swing it was won by Liberal candidate Albert Jacob.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Albert Jacob is running for re-election. The ALP is running Philippa Taylor. The Greens are running Mary O’Byrne.
- Albert Jacob (Liberal)
- Lyn Kennedy (Australian Christians)
- Philippa Taylor (Labor)
- Aliné Croll (Family First)
- Mary O’Byrne (Greens)
Assessment
Ocean Reef is a very marginal seat.
2008 result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Albert Jacob | LIB | 9,163 | 47.7 | +5.8 |
Louise Durack | ALP | 7,056 | 36.7 | -7.9 |
Justin Wood | GRN | 2,001 | 10.4 | +3.7 |
Frederick Hay | FF | 543 | 2.8 | -0.6 |
Kevin Mullen | CDP | 438 | 2.3 | +0.2 |
2008 two-candidate-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Albert Jacob | LIB | 10,445 | 54.4 | +6.0 |
Louise Durack | ALP | 8,747 | 45.6 | -6.0 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas:
- North – Kinross, Mindarie
- Central – Currambine, Burns Beach
- South – Ocean Reef, Mullaloo, Beaumaris
The Liberal Party topped the poll in all three areas. The ALP’s vote was highest in the area where the Liberal vote was lowest, coming within 0.21% in the north. The Liberal vote peaked at 48.6% in the south.
Voter group | LIB % | ALP % | GRN % | Total votes | % of ordinary votes |
South | 48.58 | 35.67 | 10.88 | 7,518 | 46.51 |
North | 43.23 | 43.02 | 9.32 | 5,804 | 35.90 |
Central | 46.39 | 39.61 | 8.37 | 2,843 | 17.59 |
Other votes | 47.19 | 36.30 | 11.10 | 3,766 |
“The seat lost parts of Currumbin”: oughta be Currambine, with an “A”. (Currumbin is on the Gold Coast.)
This seat might not be as marginal as it looks after redistribution… the two strongest Labor booths were from Mindarie, where John Quigley was one of the few Labor MP’s to get a swing to them in 2008 – apparently he has a very decent personal vote, which isn’t any use this time. Even if Labor get a general swing statewide (which isn’t looking likely), I’d be surprised if they won here.
I wonder about John Quigley’s personal vote. Might he not just be benefiting from the new suburbs of his turf, about a third of which weren’t even there at the previous election? This is the cheapest land you can get if you want to live near the beach, so it’s really more an eastern than a northern suburbs demographic.
Thanks for the correction, it has been fixed.
My prediction: Liberal retain
Prediction: LIB Retain
Can’t hazard a guess at this one, too close to call.
Liberal retain – some strongly blue ribbon areas in this seat
Libs should have no problem holding this one.
Was Louise Durack connected to the long line of famous “Duracks” in WA?