Incumbent MLCs
- Stuart Grimley (Justice), since 2018
- Bev McArthur (Liberal), since 2018
- Andy Meddick (Animal Justice), since 2018
- Jaala Pulford (Labor), since 2006
- Gayle Tierney (Labor), since 2006
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- 2018 result
- Preference flows
- Candidates
- Assessment
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
| Electorate | Margin | Electorate | Margin | Electorate | Margin |
| Bellarine | ALP 11.4% | Lowan | NAT 20.9% | South Barwon | ALP 3.7% |
| Eureka | ALP 9.7% | Melton | ALP 5.4% | South-West Coast | LIB 3.3% |
| Geelong | ALP 6.1% vs IND | Polwarth | LIB 2.5% | Wendouree | ALP 11.0% |
| Lara | ALP 19.1% | Ripon | ALP 2.8% |
Western Victoria covers the greater Geelong region and stretches west to the South Australian border. In addition to Geelong, the region covers Ballarat, Warrnambool, Horsham, Colac, Bacchus Marsh, Melton and Torquay.
Eight of the seats in the region are held by Labor, two are held by the Liberal Party, and one is held by the Nationals.
Redistribution
There were minor changes to Western Victoria, losing the remainder of the Buloke council area (including Charlton and Donald) to Northern Victoria and gaining a small area around Melton from Western Metropolitan and Northern Victoria.
History
The Western Victoria region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.
At the 2006 election, the Liberal Party and Labor each won two seats, and the fifth seat was won by the Democratic Labor Party’s Peter Kavanagh. The Nationals ran a separate ticket from the Liberal Party, which was unsuccessful.
In 2010, Kavanagh lost his seat to Nationals candidate David O’Brien, who was running on a joint ticket with the Liberal Party.
O’Brien lost in 2014 to James Purcell, running on the Vote 1 Local Jobs ticket.
One of the two Liberal MLCs was defeated in 2018, and Purcell stepped down to run for the lower house. These two seats were won by the Animal Justice Party and Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party.
| 2018 election | Redistribution | |||||
| Party | Votes | % | Swing | Quota | % | Quota |
| Labor | 175,788 | 38.2 | +4.1 | 2.290 | 38.3 | 2.296 |
| Liberal/Nationals | 137,755 | 29.9 | -7.0 | 1.795 | 29.8 | 1.788 |
| Greens | 34,477 | 7.5 | -1.7 | 0.449 | 7.5 | 0.450 |
| Derryn Hinch’s Justice | 20,483 | 4.4 | +4.4 | 0.267 | 4.5 | 0.267 |
| Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | 20,423 | 4.4 | +2.1 | 0.266 | 4.4 | 0.265 |
| Animal Justice | 12,737 | 2.8 | +1.1 | 0.166 | 2.8 | 0.166 |
| Liberal Democrats | 12,115 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.158 | 2.6 | 0.158 |
| Voluntary Euthanasia | 8,722 | 1.9 | +1.9 | 0.114 | 1.9 | 0.114 |
| Democratic Labour | 7,250 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.094 | 1.6 | 0.095 |
| Country Party | 6,314 | 1.4 | +0.4 | 0.082 | 1.4 | 0.082 |
| Aussie Battler | 5,422 | 1.2 | +1.2 | 0.071 | 1.2 | 0.071 |
| Reason | 4,217 | 0.9 | -1.6 | 0.055 | 0.9 | 0.055 |
| Socialists | 3,406 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.044 | 0.7 | 0.044 |
| Health Australia | 3,337 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.043 | 0.7 | 0.044 |
| Sustainable Australia | 2,917 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.038 | 0.6 | 0.038 |
| Transport Matters | 2,404 | 0.5 | +0.5 | 0.031 | 0.5 | 0.031 |
| Liberty Alliance | 2,385 | 0.5 | +0.5 | 0.031 | 0.5 | 0.031 |
| Others | 346 | 0.1 | 0.005 | 0.1 | 0.005 | |
| Informal | 19,819 | 4.1 | 4.1 | |||
Preference flows
On primary votes, Labor won two seats and the Liberal Party won one.
Let’s fast-forward until there were thirteen candidates running for the last two seats.
- Joshua Morris (LIB) – 0.786 quotas
- Lloyd Davies (GRN) – 0.444
- Stuart Grimley (DHJ) – 0.331
- Dylan Wight (ALP) – 0.277
- Geoff Collins (SFF) – 0.269
- Andy Meddick (AJP) – 0.170
- Lachlan Christie (LDP) – 0.160
- Costa Di Biase (ACP) – 0.156
- Katrina Nugent (VEP) – 0.120
- Frances Beaumont (DLP) – 0.096
- Anthony Prelorenzo (ABP) – 0.073
- Michael Bell (RP) – 0.059
- Tim Gooden (SOC) – 0.047
Socialist preferences mostly flowed to Animal Justice:
- Morris (LIB) – 0.786
- Davies (GRN) – 0.449
- Grimley (DHJ) – 0.332
- Wight (ALP) – 0.279
- Collins (SFF) – 0.270
- Meddick (AJP) – 0.204
- Christie (LDP) – 0.160
- Di Biase (ACP) – 0.156
- Nugent (VEP) – 0.121
- Beaumont (DLP) – 0.096
- Prelorenzo (ABP) – 0.073
- Bell (RP) – 0.060
A majority of Reason preferences flowed to Voluntary Euthanasia:
- Morris (LIB) – 0.787
- Davies (GRN) – 0.457
- Grimley (DHJ) – 0.335
- Wight (ALP) – 0.284
- Collins (SFF) – 0.271
- Meddick (AJP) – 0.206
- Christie (LDP) – 0.161
- Nugent (VEP) – 0.158
- Di Biase (ACP) – 0.157
- Beaumont (DLP) – 0.097
- Prelorenzo (ABP) – 0.074
Most Aussie Battler preferences flowed to Hinch’s party
- Morris (LIB) – 0.787
- Davies (GRN) – 0.457
- Grimley (DHJ) – 0.403
- Wight (ALP) – 0.284
- Collins (SFF) – 0.272
- Meddick (AJP) – 0.206
- Christie (LDP) – 0.161
- Nugent (VEP) – 0.159
- Di Biase (ACP) – 0.157
- Beaumont (DLP) – 0.097
DLP preferences mostly flowed to the Country Party:
- Morris (LIB) – 0.790
- Davies (GRN) – 0.458
- Grimley (DHJ) – 0.404
- Wight (ALP) – 0.285
- Collins (SFF) – 0.272
- Di Biase (ACP) – 0.246
- Meddick (AJP) – 0.207
- Christie (LDP) – 0.162
- Nugent (VEP) – 0.159
Voluntary Euthanasia preferences flowed strongly to Animal Justice, pushing them into fourth place:
- Morris (LIB) – 0.792
- Davies (GRN) – 0.462
- Grimley (DHJ) – 0.408
- Meddick (AJP) – 0.340
- Wight (ALP) – 0.287
- Collins (SFF) – 0.276
- Di Biase (ACP) – 0.247
- Christie (LDP) – 0.162
Liberal Democrats preferences flowed strongly to Hinch’s party, pushing them ahead of the Greens:
- Morris (LIB) – 0.793
- Grimley (DHJ) – 0.561
- Davies (GRN) – 0.463
- Meddick (AJP) – 0.341
- Wight (ALP) – 0.287
- Collins (SFF) – 0.278
- Di Biase (ACP) – 0.248
Country Party preferences mostly flowed to the Shooters, pushing them ahead of Labor:
- Morris (LIB) – 0.795
- Grimley (DHJ) – 0.592
- Davies (GRN) – 0.464
- Collins (SFF) – 0.445
- Meddick (AJP) – 0.381
- Wight (ALP) – 0.288
Labor preferences flowed strongly to Animal Justice, pushing them into second place:
- Morris (LIB) – 0.797
- Meddick (AJP) – 0.631
- Grimley (DHJ) – 0.595
- Davies (GRN) – 0.473
- Collins (SFF) – 0.446
Shooters preferences flowed strongly to Hinch’s party, electing Grimley:
- Grimley (DHJ) – 1.008
- Morris (LIB) – 0.805
- Meddick (AJP) – 0.634
- Davies (GRN) – 0.474
The Hinch party’s small surplus scattered, and then the Greens were excluded, with their preferences electing Meddick to the final seat:
- Meddick (AJP) – 1.024
- Morris (LIB) – 0.810
- A – Madilyn Gorman (Victorian Socialists)
- B – Ben Collyer (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers)
- C – Terri Elizabeth Pryse-Smith (One Nation)
- D – Constantine Lazos (Health Australia)
- E – Andrew Dowling (Legalise Cannabis)
- F – Emma Sinclair (Reason)
- G – Madeleine Wearne (Sustainable Australia)
- H – Labor
- Jacinta Ermacora
- Gayle Tierney
- Megan Bridger-Darling
- Sue Pavlovich
- Heather Stokes
- I – Dean Cronkwright (Family First)
- J – Antun Kovac (Freedom Party)
- K – Tosh-Jake Finnigan (Restore Democracy Sack Dan Andrews)
- L – Julia McGrath (Liberal Democrats)
- M – Geoff Collins (Companions and Pets)
- N – Cecilia Gomez Benitez (New Democrats)
- O – Antonela Kearns (Transport Matters)
- P – Stuart Grimley (Derryn Hinch’s Justice)
- Q – Natalie Valerie Failla (United Australia)
- R – Costa Di Biase (Democratic Labour)
- S – Chris Burson (Angry Victorians)
- T – Andy Meddick (Animal Justice)
- U – Sarah Mansfield (Greens)
- V – Liberal/Nationals
- Bev McArthur (Liberal)
- Joe McCracken (Liberal)
- Anita Rank (Nationals)
- Angela Shearman (Liberal)
- Robert Letts (Nationals)
- Ungrouped
- Storm Hellmuth (Independent)
Assessment
Western Victoria is a relatively strong region for Labor, who should be able to retain their two seats.
A relatively small swing to the Coalition would likely be enough to regain their second seat.
There seems to be space for one small party candidate but not necessarily one of the incumbent MLCs.
Regional breakdown
Labor topped the primary vote across the region, and in eight out of eleven seats. The Coalition came first in the other three.
The Labor primary vote ranged from 23.4% in Lowan to 49% in Lara.
The Coalition primary vote ranged from 17.7% in Lara and 17.9% in Melton, all the way to 45.4% in Lowan.
Results of the 2018 Victorian upper house election in the Western Victoria region
Small correction – James Purcell didn’t lose (his upper house seat anyway) as he choose not to re-contest and instead ran for the lower house (South West Coast).
Undemocratically elected, but Meddick (AJP) has been a great rep – I’d expect his primary vote to double, maybe triple, only to then ironically lose the preference lottery to someone else who pulls 1% of the vote.
Swings, roundabouts and veggie burgers.
Meddick has been terrible, especially with his passing of undemocratic legislation during the pandemic.
How is the pandemic bill undemocratic? The sky did not fall for every unfounded claim in the bill and NSW and NZ have similar laws with Vic being more transparent than the other two
Where’s IPMAC? Why was Dan shutting out most of the crossbench from negotiations?
Even the ABC came out against his antics
Meddick has been a very good representative for progressives in Western Victoria, however I expect the Greens will finally pick up a seat here at his expense. No candidates announced yet, although the Greens do have popular and effective city councillors in both Ballarat and Geelong – either of which would make an excellent choice.
The candidates on this are wrong – Finn, Cumming, Vaghela are western metro.
Likley result:
ALP 2
Lib/Nats 1
Minor parties 2
If the swings to the Greens at the federal election are replicated, then the Greens should be well-placed to pick up a seat here – pending preferences. There were solid votes in the inner city parts of Ballarat (high 20s) and Geelong (mid 20s) as well as in key sea and tree change areas (mid-high 20s). Ballarat federal +5.6% swing to GRN, Corangamite +6.5%.
If Grimley is re-elected on the back of favourable preference flows, it would further demonstrate the flaws of GVT. He has been near non-existent in politics since his election, is still an unknown in his hometown and has done no obvious campaigning this election.
Using Antony Green’s calculator, I have the Animal Justice Party retaining the final seat (and Hinch’s candidate losing his seat to the second Liberal) with a 1% swing to the AJP, as well as a ~3% swing against the ALP and the same swing towards the Libs. This is assuming no swing towards or against the Greens.
The Greens on 8% still devlivers the last seat to Meddick. Bizarrely, the Greens on 9% of the vote delivers Meddick’s seat to Hinch’s candidate. Only at 10% or above, around a 3% swing to the Greens, does the final seat go to the Greens. The Greens got a whisker above 9% in 2014 when they made their last serious push for a seat in the Western Vic region.
What’s interesting though is that the Greens don’t seem to be throwing a lot of effort into this contest, despite running a reasonably high profile local councillor at the head of its ticket. My guess is that the local Greens branches would be happy for Meddick to retain his seat, even if the Greens miss out – so this campaign for the Greens is merely one of shoring up the vote to be within striking distance once Meddick decides to retire.
A 3% upper house swing away from Labor won’t uniformly go to the Libs though – more likely, disaffected lefties will add to Greens, maybe even VS.
So -3% to Labor might equal +1% Libs, +1% Greens, +1% minors.
A 3% swing to the Greens can’t be ruled out. Federally they had swings of around 6% in both Ballarat and Geelong, while in Wannon their vote held despite a teal independent. The Western Vic candidate is a councillor who topped the vote in her council ward. I’m not sure about other parts of the electorate, but in Polwarth they seem to be running a pretty solid campaign, good coverage of corflutes, presence at events and being the only party letterboxing and doorknocking.
Geez WanderWest…bit harsh. Maybe you haven’t been following what I have been doing over the last four years? ‘near non-existent’ and ‘virtually unknown in his hometown’ – talk about spreading mis-information. There are many people and organisations within Western Victoria that I have met and represented in parliament. Not to mention the great relationship that I have established with the 24 councils within the region – if you don’t believe me, just ask them and I am sure they will tell you about it. Idrivesafety have just put up a ‘thank you’ as an example of some of the work that I have done. Maybe look into these thing first for a better rounded opinion, rather than merely slinging mud! Happy to tell you more about what I have done. Just drop me an email at stuart.grimley@parliament.vic.gov.au or you can call my office and I will be more than happy to discuss further.