ALP 18.3%
Incumbent MP
Natalie Hutchins, since 2014. Previously member for Keilor 2010-2014.
Geography
North-western Melbourne. Sydenham covers northern parts of the City of Brimbank and eastern parts of Melton Shire. Sydenham covers the suburbs of Calder Park, Deanside, Delahey, Hillside, Plumpton, Taylors Hill, Taylors Lakes and Sydenham.
Redistribution
Sydenham lost Keilor Lodge to Niddrie and gained Plumpton and Deanside from Kororoit.
History
Keilor was first created for the 1976 election. It was always won by the ALP, and was replaced by Sydenham in 2014.
Keilor was first won in 1976 by Jack Ginifer. He had been an MP since winning a by-election in the seat of Grant in 1966. Grant was abolished in 1967 and he moved to the new seat of Deer Park, which he held until 1976, when Deer Park itself was abolished, and he moved to Keilor. Ginifer was appointed a minister in the new Labor state government in April 1982, but resigned from Parliament a month later, and died two months after that.
George Seitz won the 1982 by-election, and has held the seat ever since. Seitz never achieved ministerial office in the Cain, Kirner, Bracks or Brumby governments, and faced allegations of local branch-stacking in his later years in office. Seitz managed to gain an exemption in 2006 from ALP rules requiring MPs to retire at 65. Facing withdrawal of his preselection, he announced he would retire at the 2010 election.
Keilor was won in 2010 by Labor candidate Natalie Hutchins. She was re-elected in Sydenham in 2014 and 2018.
- Marvet Tawadros (Family First)
- Hajar Chlihi (Victorian Socialists)
- Natalie Hutchins (Labor)
- Joseph Cullia (Liberal)
- Karina Leung (Animal Justice)
- Maggie Ralph (Greens)
- Alejandro Ramos (Freedom Party)
- Jakueline Radovani (Democratic Labour)
Assessment
Sydenham is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Natalie Hutchins | Labor | 26,264 | 60.9 | +3.6 | 61.0 |
| Maria Kerr | Liberal | 12,303 | 28.5 | +0.5 | 28.5 |
| Clinton Hare | Greens | 2,754 | 6.4 | -0.7 | 6.4 |
| Ramanjit Singh | Independent | 1,780 | 4.1 | +4.1 | 4.1 |
| Informal | 3,329 | 7.2 | +0.6 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Natalie Hutchins | Labor | 29,018 | 67.9 | +1.6 | 68.3 |
| Maria Kerr | Liberal | 13,743 | 32.1 | -1.6 | 31.7 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 68.1% in the west to 69.6% in the east.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 68.2 | 6,676 | 16.4 |
| West | 68.1 | 6,615 | 16.2 |
| East | 69.6 | 5,401 | 13.3 |
| Pre-poll | 66.7 | 17,437 | 42.8 |
| Other votes | 70.0 | 4,599 | 11.3 |
Election results in Sydenham at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
Was just checking out the results in Gorton and noticed how (comparatively) low the TPP is in a lot of the booths within this electorate. The Victorian Liberals are pretty well hopeless but if they repeat their federal results here and in other electorates like Kororoit it’ll be very interesting.
Labor’s margins are so high in these Western Melbourne electorates that it won’t even really matter, but it would definitely give them a jolt.
I don’t honestly see Liberal really winning in any of these western suburbs seats as there is a real dislike to the LNP, however if an strong independent or if One Nation were to run it could cause trouble here. The western suburbs will be interesting to watch.
@Bob Agreed. I am interested in how much these Western Melbourne seats might swing away from Labor rather than suggesting the Liberals have much of a chance in any of them. I think a lot of the swing may have been due to the relatively high primary vote for the UAP and ONP at the federal election, so we’ll see if that holds up at the state election or how many of those people either revert back to Labor or just vote for the Liberals, given I expect neither of the previously mentioned minor parties to mount much of a genuine campaign.
I suppose you should never say never, so I can’t completely discount this as a potential long-term realignment beginning, but I know very little about Western Melbourne and am at the moment skeptical the Liberals’ attempts at making gains in outer urban safe Labor seats will pay off in the near future.
The UAP as far as I am aware have never run at a state election – definitely not in Victoria. With spending limits they have no modus operandi. There is definitely a market in Victoria for some sort of ON right wing product but hard to see it being significant enough to win seats or affect the outcomes.
It is harder to have UAP have so many ads in Victoria’s election due to donation laws so I have a feeling they may not get as many votes in State Election compared to the federal results. Btw, many UAP votes many just go to the Libs since Vic Libs made inroads to the anti-vax vote in contrast to the federal Libs
Redistributed,
I don’t see a micro party winning here but if they eat away enough at the ALP vote & it’s low enough then the LNP could benefit from that, however still think thats unlikely.
A lot of talk of Liberal prospects in Werribee, Tarneit, Melton, etc. What about here? Seems like a solidly middle-class seat in Western Melbourne. Median household income is higher here than in any of the aforementioned seats.
Nicholas, most of this is middle class except Delahey which is a low SES area and fits better in the St Albans electorate. Much of this area is a growth area. Taylors Lakes is an established middle class area.
Also a very aspirational area. If this was in Sydney there would be a lot of Blue booths.
This electorate, Kororoit and St Albans are all relatively low socio-economic compared to Tarneit or Point Cook. In my opinion if this seat fell, it would be a sign of a massive swing against the Labor party.
It would be interesting if Tarneit, Werribee, Point Cook, Melton flipped to the Liberals, but I can’t see an electorate like this flipping. This is a very blue-collar area. Willing to be proven wrong though.
I reckon we will see the long-term realignment that was bound to happen across the Western suburbs rapidly occur this election, in what would usually take place over a number of elections.
Also there are new developments in the western part of this electorate past Hillside, unclear what impact that would have on the margin here too.
@Ham
“This electorate […] [is] all relatively low socio-economic compared to Tarneit or Point Cook.”
You sure?
Median weekly household income (2021 census reported on the pre-redistribution boundaries unfortunately):
– Altona: $2,123
– Sydenham: $2,107
– Tarneit: $2,023
I must’ve been looking at outdated stats, apologies! Is there a comparison to similar areas in Sydney on a median income and whether or not their Liberal/Labor held or on similar margins?
@Ham
Seems similar to other new outer suburban areas in Sydney, but perhaps a little lower on the SES scale. These areas in Sydney tend to be quite marginal. So it’s surprising to me how safe Sydenham is.
You’re right about Kororoit and St Albans – Sydenham is the exception in the region.
Totally agree that St Albans is a low SES area among the poorest electorates. However, Koroiot comes in two parts the Western part around Caroline Springs is more middle class. Median weekly income in that suburb is $2133 (SEIFA Score-67) compared to $1456 for Deer Park (SEIFA Score-12) or Kings Park $1246-SEIFA score 4). The old Altona was affluent not just because of Point Cook but because Altona itself being beachside is becoming desirable
The western suburbs are not a monolith despite the electorates there being very strong for Labor. There are some areas that are more affluent than others just like how in the eastern suburbs there are some areas that are more affluent than others.
Ah yes, Kororoit is somewhat of a bits-and-pieces.