LIB 3.2%
Incumbent MP
Roma Britnell, since 2015.
Geography
South-Western Victoria. This seat covers the South Australian border and the western end of Victoria’s southern coast. It covers the towns of Warrnambool, Portland, Port Fairy, and Macarthur. South-West Coast covers the City of Warrnambool and a majority of the Shire of Moyne and the Shire of Glenelg, along with a small part of Corangamite Shire..
Redistribution
South-West Coast’s eastern boundary was changed. The seat expanded east to take in Terang and lost a small area to Lowan. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 2.3% to 3.2%.
South-West Coast was created at the 2002 election, replacing the abolished seats of Portland and Warrnambool.
At the 2002 election it was won by former Liberal leader Denis Napthine. He had been Member for Portland since 1988, and Minister for Youth and Community Services in the second term of the Kennett government. He was elected leader of the Liberal Party following Kennett’s defeat in 1999, and led the party until 2002, when he was replaced by Robert Doyle as Liberal leader months before the 2002 state election.
At the 2002 election, Napthine moved to the new seat of South-West Coast, holding it with a 0.7% margin despite a large swing to the ALP. He was re-elected with a larger margin in 2006. In 2010, he increased his margin to 11.9%.
Napthine served as a minister in the Bailleu Coalition government. In March 2013, Bailleu resigned as Premier and Napthine was elected as leader of the Liberal Party and Premier.
Napthine led the Liberal/National coalition into the 2014 election, and the government was narrowly defeated. He retired from parliament shortly after the election.
The 2015 by-election was won by Liberal candidate Roma Britnell, and she was re-elected in 2018.
- James Purcell (Independent)
- Jim Doukas (Independent)
- Michael McCluskey (Independent)
- James Brash Grimley (Derryn Hinch’s Justice)
- Carol Altmann (Independent)
- Chris Brunt (Family First)
- Jacinta Anderson (Animal Justice)
- Kylie Gaston (Labor)
- Thomas Campbell (Greens)
- Roma Britnell (Liberal)
Assessment
South-West Coast is one of a number of traditional safe Liberal seats which is now quite marginal. It will probably stay in Liberal hands but it could still be in play.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Roma Britnell | Liberal | 13,297 | 32.4 | -24.6 | 34.4 |
| Kylie Gaston | Labor | 10,074 | 24.5 | -3.7 | 24.5 |
| James Purcell | Independent | 6,763 | 16.5 | +16.5 | 15.4 |
| Michael Neoh | Independent | 3,735 | 9.1 | +9.1 | 8.5 |
| Jim Doukas | Country | 3,352 | 8.2 | +8.2 | 7.7 |
| Thomas Campbell | Greens | 2,540 | 6.2 | -3.6 | 6.2 |
| Joseph Purtill | Democratic Labour | 682 | 1.7 | +1.7 | 1.6 |
| Michael Mccluskey | Independent | 384 | 0.9 | -0.7 | 0.9 |
| Terry Riggs | Socialists | 238 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.7 |
| Others | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 2,943 | 6.7 | +2.7 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Roma Britnell | Liberal | 21,483 | 52.3 | -8.7 | 53.2 |
| Kylie Gaston | Labor | 19,582 | 47.7 | +8.7 | 46.8 |
Booths have been divided into four areas along local government boundaries: Warrnambool, Moyne, Glenelg and Corangamite.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in Moyne (60.4%) and Corangamite (63.9%). Labor won narrow 50.2% majorities in Warrnambool and Glenelg.
There was a strong vote for independents, with about 26-27% in Warrnambool, Moyne and in the pre-poll vote.
| Voter group | IND prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Warrnambool | 27.6 | 49.8 | 8,515 | 19.4 |
| Moyne | 26.3 | 60.4 | 5,039 | 11.5 |
| Glenelg | 20.1 | 49.8 | 3,385 | 7.7 |
| Corangamite | 0.0 | 63.9 | 1,505 | 3.4 |
| Pre-poll | 26.2 | 52.9 | 22,505 | 51.3 |
| Other votes | 21.5 | 53.4 | 2,892 | 6.6 |
Election results in South-West Coast at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, independent candidates and Labor.
This margin is very small for a rural seat like this, you’d think this would be one of the safest Liberal seats in the state.
While I reckon Polwarth is more likely to flip than this seat due to the population growth in the Eastern part of the seat, it’ll be interesting to see how this seat performs in the election. Since 2014, there’s been almost a 10% drop in the 2PP for the Liberals. Britnell very well may have built up a local profile since Napthine’s retirement, but she did suffer an 8% swing against her in 2018.
There were also 2 independent challengers in 2018 who made up over a quarter of the vote but didn’t make the 2CP, interesting to see where those votes flow back to.
Ham the figures for distribution of preferences of the independents and Green should be on the vec website. But I note Naptine’s 10% margin is no longer. If we look at Wannon 2022 vote which is this area plus the part in Polwarth.. mainly Colac minus Hamilton township. This seat is slightly less lib inclined than the Federal seat. The result there against the independent was close… but would pick a probable lib retain
I’d be hoping for a strong campaign from the ALP given the recent federal election result. Roma’s right wing nonsense should make her vulnerable but it is populist stuff so I don’t know. It’d take a strong and concerted opposition campaign.
Labor came very close here in 2002 with this electorate having a history of being marginal, I could see Labor winning here but the LNP holding onto Polwarth.
I think Polwarth is more likely to be a Labor gain than South West Coast, especially considering Polwarth has shifted towards more Labor-leaning areas around Torquay and the population growth in the Eastern part of the seat. I think SW Coast will depend on whether or not Roma Britnell has managed to set herself up as a strong local member. Napthine kept the seat relatively safe for a while due to his high profile in state politics.
But don’t forget that Napthine had some close calls when he was a sitting member so there is a latent Labor/independent vote if the right candidate harvests it.
The Thing about the South West Coast is that the three coastal towns of Warrnambool, Portland and Port Fairy have always significant Labor vote due some industrial history. It is really only the thumping result in the more inland rural booths which is makes it more liberal than the state has a whole. In Fact the Federal seat of Wannon is no where near as Safe for the Coalition like Mallee, Nicholls and more recently Gippsland.
South-West Coast and the federal seat of Wannon often has an independent running and getting at least 10% of the votes. It’d be interesting to see if an independent candidate runs and shifts the ALP vs LNP 2PP.
There are some similarities between here and the NSW South Coast – larger centres by the coast, especially those with ports or historical pasts, tend to lean Labor whilst small, inland towns tend to lean to the LNP.
Great to see a progressive independent has come forward to stand here. Warrnambool-based journalist Carol Altmann.
There’s an interesting read in The Age today about Carol Altmann and the Liberals are in for a tough battle in South West Coast and how Altmann has a significant existing local profile especially in Warrnambool.
I think Benambra is more likely to flip to an Independent gain, this is a seat certainly to watch given the existing local profile.
Polwarth is also a very interesting contest to watch after the redistribution.
If a competent independent runs then this shifts votes from.the liberals and fractures the vote.. this happened last time.. I think.labor came within.3 % of victory. Usually the preference flow to the ind from Labor is better than it reverse.
If the Liberals can’t hold here then they don’t have realistic chance of winning anytime soon
Looking at last election before ind alp on roughly 28% libs 43% 25 per cent went to larger independents but libs only ended with 53% which means the independents split 60/40 against the libs….. I would be worried if I were the libs…. they would be very lucky to win
Britnell is in big trouble here I think, independent is gaining a lot of traction locally. Could be one very interesting contest to watch – especially if the independent polls well outside of Warrnambool
Travelled through this electorate skirting round Warrnambool and into Port Fairy, Liberals had signs up everywhere, even moreso than next door in Polwarth
This could be a big Independent upset on the night, and one definetly to watch. Labor candidate will finish in a distant place.
Big independent field here might also complicate things.
When I was in Port Fairy back in September there were a lot of yard signs for Altmann, and nothing for anyone else.
It’s always pretty noticeable if one candidate has signs in people’s yards and the rest are putting them on construction sure safety fences.
Agree with Ham