Rowville – Victoria 2022

Hi Ben, Is it possible to add a graph similar to the Federal one that has the historical TPP and Adjusted TPP for current boundaries. In the case of Rowville, it would be interesting to see if Labor would have won in 2002 on these boundaries.

Sorry not at the moment. I haven’t compiled the historic 2PP data at a state level, and I don’t have the data I would need to calculate adjusted 2PP.

Time to go Kim. 30 years and you’ve done diddly squat.

No clue how this MP has managed to hold this seat for 30 years but is seemingly a complete nobody and continues to win preselection.

There was barely a swing against the Libs here in 2018 compared to the massive swings elsewhere, maybe I don’t understand this local area as much as I think I do…

Local Knox councillor Nicole Seymour has announced she is running here. She has gathered a substantial social media following during the pandemic and is quite popular in the community. Kim Wells is old and stale and has done nothing in 30 years, and this is an area that would never vote Labor so perhaps Nicole could snatch this seat from Kim Wells?

Local Knox councillor Nicole Seymour has announced she is running here. She has gathered a substantial social media following during the pandemic and is quite popular in the community. Kim Wells is old and stale and has done nothing in 30 years, and this is an area that would never vote Labor so perhaps Nicole could snatch this seat from Kim Wells?

I doubt Rowville will fall, if it had been in the 2000’s maybe as it was full a fairly new estates whereas now its quite rusted on. If you look for any comparison Labor in 2018 had a small swing towards them also in the federal electorate in 2022 Liberals held on with a way more controversial member. I would put Liberal hold with even a possibility of it bucking the state trend.

Kim Wells has taken out a huge double sided billboard on Ferntree Gully Rd in Knoxfield, just outside Scoresby Bunnings. Why would they bother spending that sort of money in the second safest Liberal seat in Melbourne?

Drove through here yesterday & saw Labor signs dotted throughout the electorate & not a single Liberal sign, it would suggest that Liberal are in a lot of trouble here, I initially thought Labor didn’t have a chance but it looks like they possible could.

Other than the WA Libs, I don’t think I’ve seen a party as incompetent and hopeless as the Vic Libs. They’re even struggling in supposedly safe Rowville lmao. I wonder where the Vic Libs would rank in the world in terms of incompetency?

Nah this is staying liberal. They voted Alan Tudge back in. Number of signs really don’t mean much.

Mark, Labor put 0 effort into Aston in May unlike this seat. Labor would have won Aston if it didn’t focus so much on seats it couldn’t win such as La Trobe and Flinders which seem to be demographically going against Labor as well as the Anti-Dan factor in the outskirts of Melbourne.

Daniel, I think the only reason why Labor did so well in Aston is due to Alan Tudge’s weakness following his indictment in potential scandal/s. Otherwise, I believe Aston is like other outer suburban seats such as La Trobe where Labor is not doing as well compared to the inner suburban districts such as Kooyong.

Agree completely Yoh An. The “0 effort” from Labor was offset by Alan Tudge.

Some of anti-Lib swing can be attributed among the growing Chinese community in parts of Aston such as Wantirna, something which Alan Tudge himself identified, but the swing was mainly due to Alan Tudge and his shenanigans. This is probably one of the last seats to fall to Labor in the whole of Melbourne. Matthew Guy’s own seat of Bulleen would fall before this.

@Mark, Alan Tudge may have retained his seat but he had a 7.3% swing against him with no effort from Labor. The margin in Rowville is less than that…

I agree it will probably be a Lib retain but I don’t really see how Alan Tudge having a -7.3% swing could be interpreted as a positive sign for the Libs.

Trent, given that you are more familiar with Melbourne suburbs do you see Rowville and the wider Knox council area behaving like the Northern suburbs of Sydney around Ryde/Epping which can swing strongly to Labor given the right conditions or is it more like the Hills District/Sutherland Shire being solid Liberal?

@Yoh An. I’d say Knox in general is about halfway between Ryde/Epping and Sutherland, essentially a poorer version of the Hills. Knox has an increasing Chinese Australian population due to it being close to Glen Waverley and being relatively affordable compared to traditional areas with large Chinese communities in Whitehorse, Manningham and Monash, particularly in Wantirna South which is located in this electorate. At the same time, it has a very socially conservative population similar to the Hills and Sutherland, meaning a right leaning Lib party would be appealing here which is the direction both the state and federal Libs are heading. Of course, that means that Alan Tudge’s adultery won’t be popular at all here, partly explaining the massive federal election swing.

It’s Wantirna South with a Asian population not Wantirna. Wantirna still heavily Anglo as is most of the electorate, Tudge was a massive anchor on this electorate & I firmly believe that this seat like La Trobe would have swung further if it had not been for Tudge.

Maybe Alan Tudge can campaign here for the liberals..would just do the job for Labor…privacy act..robodebt $650k settlement set a good example for integrity

Seriously any seat with a 5% liberal margin is a probable liberal retain

@Yoh An, I’m not sure to be honest mostly because I’m not very familiar with those comparative areas of Sydney. Rowville isn’t particularly affluent though (it’s middle class) and Dan M’s response sounds about right to me.

I wonder if there is a correlation between car dependency and Liberal support. Many of the areas that seem the most solid for the Liberals and withstand big swings like 2018 seem to be the suburbs that aren’t on train lines like Rowville, Doncaster, Templestowe, etc.

It’s not like they’re cheap suburbs so moving to a PT black hole isn’t a sacrifice made out of financial necessity, probably more likely a reflection of priorities and preference.

I am skeptical that infidelity is something that social conservatives really care about when it comes to how they vote. I would go so far as to say it’s quite the opposite. Just look at the Republican Party.

@Daniel Are Labor actually putting effort into this seat, interesting considering there’s other seat that are more marginal that should probably be their priority. Have they made announcements in regards to infrastructure that would help them get votes they didn’t get in 2018.
@Trent Interesting about train lines and voting patterns, although Doncaster and Templestowe’s affluence and ethnic population that have mostly socially conservative views would probably explain their voting patterns rather than public transport options. You would think and area that lacks public transport would maybe be more inclined to Labor due to Labors more general support of public transport, although the voters may not want the public transport. One big reason areas without a train line may not have swung to Labor as hard is the infrastructure upgrades such as level crossing removal didn’t resonate with them.

North East and Trent, I wonder if this trend may also be apparent in Sydney, as the areas with greater car dependency appear to be suburbs with higher concentration of tradesmen/non-professionals (eg Milperra).

Kim Wells has been too comfortable for way too long…can’t recall when I last saw him actively in the community.
Labour has been too inconsistent with new candidates every election.
Seems to me having a proven, active, local resident is our chance for change and being taken seriously by the major parties, regardless of usual voting preferences.

Federal Labor cancelled a bunch of projects that were promised through here, I expect the LNP to hold here quite conformably

Kim Wells is a waste of space in a safe seat. He should have had the tap on the shoulder.

Agreed @Bob

VIC Labor are trying to spin it on the Feds, but the fact is the funding allocation was there and wasn’t used by the state gov. I definitely expect some further backlash in the areas where funding was cut from.

I drove through this seat yesterday along Stud Road and there were a huge number of signs for both Mannie Verma and Kim Wells. It did not look like safe seat by the amount of signs. at the time of Federal election, i saw hardly any Labor signs only Alan Tudge but nearly all of them were vandalised with with the word “scum” written on them.

Yes @Nimalan there are a lot of signs around, although not nearly as many as in Bayswater. Kim Wells has a huge billboard on Ferntree Gully Rd, opposite Scoresby Bunnings. Would’ve been expensive and don’t know why he’d bother. There are also a lot of signs for the high profile Independent Nicole Seymour as well. It would be difficult for an Independent to win in a seat like this, but she could shake things up. I’d expect most of her vote to come off the Liberals and the preferences to go back, although some preference leaking to the ALP could cause an upset. Still very likely to be retained by Kim Wells but could a surprise independent or ALP win wouldn’t outside the realm of possibility here in the current climate.

Adam, agree Bayswater is i think one of the seats that i am most focused on with two sitting members and the first time in a while that Labor is actively campaigning in a Knox based seat in over a decade (excluding Monbulk where only a smart part is Knox. Wondering what the yard signs are like in Bayswater? When i was around in around Chatham station i saw a lot for Pesutto but none for Labor so i feel maybe Labor has a better chance of a notional pick up in Bayswater than retaining Hawthorn

Nimalan I would agree that Labor is more likely to notionally gain/retain Bayswater than retain Hawthorn. There are signs everywhere in Bayswater. Both candidates have signs up pretty much side by side in almost every public place they can, but Jackson Taylor has more signs up on private property. He is a very active and present local member and I’d favour him to retain the seat.

Don’t discount Nicole Seymour in this seat. She’s an independent, former Knox Mayor, respected Knox Councillor, and garnished significant support during COVID with her 21,000 followers on Facebook, this is a seat that could be decided by preferences. Labor has never invested money in this seat, and usually put up dummy candidates both state and federal (Aston). Labor again has shown a poor candidate with little knowledge on the area. The neighbouring seat to the west is Mulgrave, Dan Andrews seat. If Labor invested time and money in Rowville in the future, it could easily fall. I’ve lived in this seat as long as Kim Wells has been our local member.

I personally don’t see Labor winning here, they could possibly be targeting here just so the Liberals waste resources here rather than use on Bayswater where Labor has a realistic chance of winning there. Like it was mentioned on the Bayswater thread there is a large religious vote through here and I expect a lot of Labor progressive social laws will be received here in a very negative manner.

My sense is that this falls on a good ALP night. Probably about as likely as Croydon, less likely than Warrandyte/Evelyn. Labor have run a considerably better local campaign than in 2018, and view of pandemic management should be a net positive in this part of town. Kim Wells’ longevity is counting against him by now with a sense that he should have moved on.

Really don’t know how well Nicole Seymour will do. She has good ground presence on pre-poll, anything between 10-25% seems plausible, which is obviously a broad spectrum of results – very difficult to read. But chipping away at the bedrock of Liberal support and splattering preferences won’t hurt Labor, or she may find a way into 2nd and win.

Sorry, that should be *more likely than Warrandyte/Evelyn.

One other thought – there’s only one pre-poll centre in this district, and its awkwardly located, so we may see above-average turnout on the day? That may be to the benefit of candidates (I presume Liberal only) that have the volunteer base to fully staff election day booths.

If Nicole Seymour gets 25% of the vote, which is not implausible, she could win. She would get the preferences of Labor and the Greens and could then defeat Wells. The problem would be of Greens preferences push Labor ahead of her (Greens are preferencing Labor ahead of her) then she would fall out of the 2CP and her preferences would likely elect Kim Wells.

I don’t know much about Nicole Seymour but Labor and the Greens have preferenced her ahead of Liberal Kim Wells. She doesn’t seem to be a teal or an anti-vax or “freedom” candidate and so it’s likely that most or even all parties would preference her ahead of parties with the opposite ideology.

If she could knock off 10% from the Liberal and she beats the Greens then she’s in with a chance as the micro parties will preference her ahead of the Greens. Winning as an independent here would be a huge mountain to climb.

Nicole Seymour has done a sensational job here with exit polling suggesting she’s gathered over 25% of the primary vote in pre polling. The trend has been that she has been obtaining preferences from Labor, Greens and Liberal. She’s picked up votes from both traditional Labor and Liberal parties. TAB currently have her at 6.50 to win. This seat will come down to preferences. Nicole took a leave of absence as Deputy Mayor of Knox Council, and is a former Knox Mayor, with exceptional support throughout the community. Her yellow shirt brigade has been active during the campaign.

Kim Wells will have been in parliament 34 years at the end of thos term. Anyone know the record in Victoria’s parliament?

With Brad Hazzard (NSW) not recontesting his seat at the upcoming state election, Kim Wells will be tied with Fiona Simpson (Queensland) as the two longest serving state or federal MPs in the country with continuous service. Bob Katter in federal parliament is a close second on that metric.

Adam

Two longer terms that come to mind are Sir Herbert Hyland MP for Gippsland South 1929 – 1970 and John Cain Snr 1917 – 1957. There may be longer that. As for Kim Wells – he should have retired a while back – he is just dead wood doing nothing.

All the data on Victorian MLAs and MLCs is here:

https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/re-member-former-members

This is really a poor performance by the Libs in a seat that was increasingly their new Malvern. Last state election Labor under performed in Knox compared to other parts of Melbourne especially the Libs traditional heartland in the inner suburbs. Knox was seen as the Libs new heartland. Last month’s result show that the Labor vote actually held up pretty strong but the Liberal vote primary vote collapsed with the independent challenge. Interestingly, some booths in strong Liberal suburbs such as Wantirna South and Rowville are now Red such as Knox Gardens (Labor actually out polled the Libs on primaries), Heany Park, Wantirna South PS and Park Ridge. The Flamingo booth (a Private school booth) is now barely Liberal at 51% which was one the strongest Liberal booths. Ironically, Labor won Bayswater with a bigger margin than the Libs managed in Rowville. Peta Credlin is particularly upset with the results in this part of Melbourne more than anyway else as she suggested forgetting about Kooyong, Goldstein etc but that strategy may not have worked this time where Labor has overperformed in the middle/outer eastern suburbs something that Kos Samaras said the polling did not pick up.

The only Lib who would be happy about the underperformance in Knox is Alan Tudge since now he can point fingers and say the massive swing at the federal election wasn’t entirely his fault, which might help him if he gets challenged for preselection before the next federal election. This area is now changing with a growing ethnic Chinese population, resembling more and more like Whitehorse and Monash, a demographic the Libs aren’t doing particularly well with at the moment.

Agree that western parts of Knox closely resemble northern Monash and Whitehorse demographically, including a large Chinese community. However eastern parts like Boronia (in Bayswater) and Ferntree Gully (in Monbulk) had 6, 7, 8% swings to Labor, and these are very much still predominantly Anglo areas. Swing in Boronia can be attributed to a popular, hard working local member. In Ferntree Gully, it could be the loss of Wakeling’s personal vote, as he wasn’t on the ballot in Monbulk.

Kim Wells will reportedly challenge pesutto for leadership. This will ensure the liberals lose the rest of their metropolitan seats and possibly join the crossbench as the nationals become the official opposition. I could not think of somebody worse than wells to lead the party… all mps who gave evidence AGAINST their leader should lose preselection in their seats and have no place in the party they are managing to tear it apart while in opposition

The only man who can save Victoria is John Pesutto and his Liberal and National team. Kim Wells cannot. Victoria needs moderate leaders.

Choosing this guy as leader is silly he was first elected into parliament in 1992 when kennett in a landslide also the last time sense Liberals won a metropolitan electorate on the western side of the Yarra.