Richmond – Victoria 2022

The Greens will never win this seat if Kathleen Maltzahn is the candidate.

She has now had three tries at it and if comparing federal vs state results it seems due to her whorephobic views she is box office poison.

However, now that Richard Wynne is retiring and depending if a new Greens candidate is preselected and Libs not running in this seat like last time, I would expect this to be one of the seats easily changing hands because of the suppressed Green vote.

yeah please, there’s so many terrible Vic Greens candidates and I feel that they’re getting less controversial. She needs to go.

Yep, Maltzahn sucks. One of the absolute worst Greens candidates there are. Here’s hoping she finally loses preselection.

Rumors abound that the former Greens mayor Gabrielle De Vietri will seek preselection for Richmond.

If the Yarra Greens branch preselect anyone but Maltzahn they’ll probably win it’s maddening they haven’t pulled their finger out in a previous attempt.

With the incumbent retiring it’s never going to be as ripe for the taking.

Former Yarra mayor and current councillor Gabrielle de Vietrie has been preselected for the seat for the Greens. Given the current member is retiring and Maltzahn hasn’t been selected again, seems like they’re taking it seriously.

The Greens have indeed preselected ex-Mayor and current Yarra councillor Gabrielle de Vietri as their candidate for Richmond. This is going to be very very close indeed, I think, although I’d favour de Vietri over whichever career politician Labor parachute in.

This will be interesting to watch, would the liberals running a candidate in this seat assist labor, hinder or little to no effect?

Bob

I honestly don’t think the Libs running here would make diddly squat of difference.

It really depends where the Libs send their preferences. They will come third and neither Labor nor Greens will get to 50% primary. If anything, the Libs are the decision makers here.

The libs polled 21% Primary in 2014 so if they run in 2022 a it will make a difference to the result i would assume. The redistribution will also make a difference.

Redistributed,
The LNP might do it just to wound Labor, if this electorate falls it will really hurt Labor.

See, I get they’re different in ideology to a large extent but Libs should always preference Greens above Labor, it’s what Labor does and this strategy may actually force Labor to go into a minority government with the Greens giving them a bigger shot at winning next time

Maybe, maybe not. It hasn’t helped ACT Libs, for instance.

Furtive, I thought ACT state elections use hare Clark where you don’t really preference parties, just candidates. With this system, I believe the libs only recommended intra party preferences.

I mean more generally that having Greens in government didn’t help the Libs win back seats. After a term of coalition Labor/Greens government, the Lib vote only went backwards.

Furtive, I would say the ACT is an exception in all Australian state and territory legislatures. It would be like Washington DC and Maryland in the USA, Republicans wont win there any time for the foreseeable future because the area is so well educated.

In fact if the Liberals continue moving away from the centre right, then their chances of winning power in the ACT at the state level will be almost zero.

@Yoh An Maryland has a Republican Governor in Larry Hogan and sends at least 1 Rep to the US House.
Granted it is Democrat dominated but cities and counties outside of the Baltimore and Annapolis metros like Ocean City and Hagerstown are Republican.
Interesting tidbit is the capital Annapolis’ Mayor is an Aussie: Gavin Buckley, a Dem.

Re: the ACT Senate spot, the fact that the Labor vote polls so high means the Greens would always be missing out on a spot as the left vote absorbs into it. A splinter or stronger Greens vote would mean a drastically lower Labor vote and higher probability of the Libs picking up a spot.
I think ACT voters are smart enough too to keep the split as is. As a future Liberal government without an ACT Senator would just ignore Canberra entirely when it came to infrastructure grants

Yoh An: I agree that Canberra is unusually progressive but Victoria is itself Australia’s most progressive state. The Liberal attack lines are obvious but it’s also possible that voters just might end up liking having a Labor/Greens coalition government.

LJ: Again, that speculation is at direct odds with the 2020 ACT results. A higher Green vote resulted in a lower Liberal vote.

LJ Davidson, I was referring more to the state legislature, where Democrats do have a supermajority as that is the more relevant metric. The governorship would be equivalent to state premier, which in Australia is not directly elected.

Agree that ACT would only correspond to central Washington DC plus a few suburbs, not rural areas of Maryland.

Liberals are running a candidate in Richmond. http://www.lucasmoon.com.au

Wonder if the LNP will put The Greens above the ALP?

The Greens Primary vote increased in the federal seat of Melbourne but the Green vote went down in the Richmond booths, this would suggest that Labor could hold on here.

Bandt actually lost 2 booths in Richmond vs ALP. On the other hand Collingwood was Bandt’s best booth, and he would have easily won the aggregate vote in the booths covering the electorate

Not running Maltzahn is a huge step forward. But I don’t think this is an easy Green gain. It has been a somewhat controversial term for Yarra Greens. Stephen Jolly may run solely to direct preferences against Greens.

This is another interesting seat that i don’t think is a done deal for thee Greens. This area is represented by Greens at federal and council level so the expectation is that without a Labor incumbent this seat will turn green. The thing is though that the Yarra council which represents the area doesn’t have the best reputation and has many problems and conroversies. This could work against the Greens. I don’t know how well liked De Vietre was as mayor though. Voters may also separate the levels of government and not punish the Greens at state level.

The only reason ALP may had hold the seat may be due to Kathleen Maltzahn’s more controversial and conservative view on the sex industry

An interesting thing in this state election will be how well the Greens do, because Daniel Andrews is actually incredibly popular among Green voters, and I imagine particularly among Greens/Labor swing voters. The Victorian Labor party is much more progressive than Federal Labor so the Greens may not do as well here?

@Adam I think green voters like him for many of Labors social policies but may not like Vic Labors record on environmental issues, such as logging. The Greens will likely highlight this during their campaign.

There are issues with the Yarra Council (Greens local council) which occupies this seat which has been reported on repeatedly over the past few years.
One of the few parts of the electorate of Melbourne which swung against Bandt was in booths within Richmond. The Richmond booth had a 7.7% drop in Greens primary, and the only two booths in the whole electorate won by Labor were in Richmond also.
Labor could very well hold but Greens are certainly in with a very good chance considering Wynne’s retirement.
Voters in Richmond might not vote to be represented by the Greens at a local, state and federal level too.

@ham Federal Melbourne is not a good guide here as any swings to labor were voters coming back to Labor due to them actually having a candidate hear compared to in 2019.

Labor got mainly swings to them at the federal election in Melbourne, especially in Richmond, Collingwood and Fitzroy. The Liberal vote crashed.

Even though Richmond has a higher ALP vs GRN margin than Northcote, the Greens have better odds of winning Richmond than Northcote. ALP doesn’t have the advantage of incumbancy and the Greens, like in Melbourne at the federal election in 2010, could capitalise on it. That’s when Adam Bandt won with an 11% swing.

How does a Labor candidate fend off a Green challenger anyway? During the federal election campaign, moderate Liberal MPs facing teal challengers were caught between a rock and a hard place. They had to defend their stances on social and environmental issues and also talk about the federal LNP’s record.

For people in the area, who is winning the Corfulte war in Richmond?

The performance of the green dominated City of Yarra could be a determining factor in who wins Richmond.

The Greens are well and truly winning the corflute war. I’ve seen literally less than 10 Labor ones and there are hundreds of Greens ones. A few socialist and reason party ones too. Liberals have some in the northern part of Richmond around Victoria street but nowhere else it seems.

This is the safest Green pickup. Don’t even know why Labor are bothering here.

The Strongest area for Labor is around North Richmond where there are all of Housing Commision i wonder if there will be a backlash against Andrews here due to what happened at Flemington Towers with the lockdown. While it is not in the same electorate many residents here may have friends and family who were impacted. At the last Local council election Labor was wiped out of Yarra Council.

Nimalan, on the federal results in Flemington, there was indeed a swing against Labor on the first preference vote (12%) but they still manage to only have a minor swing against them on the TPP (2%) since much of the Labor loss going to the Greens and Victorian Socialist rather than the Libs possibly due to low incomes.
I think North Richmond Public Housing is culturally different from Flemington Public Housing as North Richmond residents tends to be from Asia (especially China, Vietnam, and East Timor) unlike Flemington residents who tend to be from the Horn of Africa

I think the public housing vote will gradually be less prominent in the future as the public housing vicinity is getting rebuilt with more private housing in the stock in addition to more apartment developments nearby. Plus the Asian population in public housing has declined due to either the elderly dying or they moved on to the suburbs when they become richer

Marh, excellent point. I did not believe the Libs would benefit from any backlash. However, i was wondering if the Greens may benefit. The Greens now have a Somali Australian counciller in Anab Mohamud (Yarra Council) who is a resident of the Atherton Gardens Public Housing estate and maybe able switch votes among residents. Forgot that North Richmond Public housing residents are generally Asian Australian. You are correct Flemington is generally Horn of African. It is interesting that the ethnic composition of the different housing estates vary significantly. I heard the Emerald Hill estate in South Melbourne has an elderly Jewish community from the Former Soviet Union. I would be interested to see what the the ethnic composition of the some of the estates south of the River such as those in South Yarra/Prahran etc would be.

Regarding the second point i totally agree that Public housing vote will become generally less prominent in the future. The Andrews government Big Housing Build which will see many low rise public housing blocks demolished replaced the mix housing income housing which will see a net increase in the number of Public Housing dwellings however, it will be diluted by the much larger increase in private dwellings. This ironically will hurt Labor longer term. We can already see that in the Alamein booth which in 2006 voted 66% 2PP Labor (12% points to the left of the state) while in 2018 55 2PP Labor (3 points to the right of the state). Interestingly in the Prahran thread i mentioned how while Carlton is still associated with the Italian community through Lygon Street hardly any Italian Australians live there and i predicted the same may happen in Richmond where Victoria Street remains Little Saigon but with very few Vietnamese Australians.

The Greens could well take it, but mostly because they’ve finally gotten rid of Kathleen Maltzahn.

Without her, Wynne wouldn’t have had such an easy win last time.

I think Little Saigon in Richmond is declining evident from being less vibrant than it was 20 years ago and shops are gradually closing with the reason being mentioned on the previous comments. Similarly Footscray has a declining Vietnamese population but it still remains vibrant for the Vietnamese community possibly to lesser crime and in a major transport location. Vietnamese are now choosing areas around Springvale and Brimbank by the time they have money to buy a house.

Also there’s a perception of an increase in drug activity on Victoria Street which really ruins its reputation and affects the vibrancy and foot traffic.

It is just a perception too. The Victoria Street area has had major drug related crime problems since long before the injecting room, which is precisely why the injecting room was put there.

As for Nimalan’s curiosity about the Prahran and South Yarra commission estates, I used to live right near the towers on King Street, Prahran. They are mostly white, it tends to be an older population and there were more European accents among the older residents. The South Yarra towers seem a bit more multicultural and have a small East African presence as well, and a lot more families with kids. The St Kilda tower on Inkerman Street and the surrounding low rises in Henryville and Bath St seem to focus on housing over 50s and indigenous residents. There are a number of rooming houses opposite the Inkerman St tower too, around the PCYC.

Interesting that the new Greens Placards have both Gabrielle de Vietri and Adam Bandt on them.

Thanks Trent, for the information it is interesting that the Housing commission towers vary significantly by ethnicity depending on location.

The Age is reporting that Victorian Liberals will preference Greens ahead of Labor in every seat.

Opposition Leader Matthew Guy said, “while the Greens are bad, Daniel Andrews and Labor are worse”.

“It is incumbent upon us to do everything possible to rid the state of Mr Andrews and his administration,” he said.

This will put Prahran out of reach for Labor and makes it extremely difficult for them to retain Northcote and Richmond.

I feel like the ALP margin in Albert Park is large enough for them to just retain it. Pascoe Vale, Footscray and Preston to permanently become a Labor Green contest.

I’m still putting Richmond as (most likely) the only Greens gain. The Greens have a shot at Northcote. Labor’s margin is much smaller there than in Richmond as the Greens’ 2PP vote was inflated by having an incumbent Greens MP last time.

The Greens campaign still seems like a fizzer over all. I think they’ll gain this as the ground campaign in Richmond seems decent, Labor is losing their incumbent, and the Greens have preselected someone decent.

If Liberals preference Labor over Greens, this is their only gain and they might lose Prahran (exclusion order issues). Brunswick will go to the wire, as Labor seem to be actively campaigning there, but I think Tim Read hangs on.

If Liberals preference Greens over Labor, this seat is in the bag, as are all 3 incumbents, and Northcote. It also opens up Pascoe Vale, Preston and Footscray (maybe Williamstown), though Greens probably don’t have the campaign infrastructure to seize the moment.

Albert Park is a bust – even if the Greens were trying there and didn’t preselect late, it would be really hard to get out of 3rd. Same goes for Ivanhoe.

Malvern would have been winnable due to teal vibes and no teal running, but Liberals are sandbagging it enough and the Greens (and Labor) aren’t really trying there, so Liberal retain. Greens haven’t put in the effort to stand out in any of the other Teal areas, even when the actual teal isn’t very strong. Polwarth could be interesting if they can convince federal teal voters, though I’m not sure the Greens have put in enough effort to leap-frog Labor. Greens have also dropped the ball in the Yarra Valley/Dandenong Ranges area and haven’t captured any of the momentum from their good showing in Casey (on teal preferences)

The LC will depend entirely on group voting tickets. I’m assuming they haven’t gotten any Ratnam gets reelected and they should be able to win South Metro, but not much hope for the rest, and I don’t see Greens being good at negotiating GVTs.

Not a happy Greens member, but getting Richmond will be nice and celebrated.

The Liberals are preferencing Greens over Labor. Greens should pick up Richmond, would be a very chance in Northcote. Albert Park probably not.

Brunswick won’t go down the wire. I think Tim Read will win and win comfortably.