GRN 8.2% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Sam Hibbins, since 2014.
Geography
Inner southern Melbourne. Prahran covers the suburbs of Prahran, South Yarra and Windsor and parts of St Kilda and St Kilda East.
Redistribution
Prahran shifted slightly to the west, taking in part of Southbank from Albert Park and part of Balaclava from Caulfield, and then lost the remainder of Toorak to Malvern and part of St Kilda East to Caulfield. These changes slightly increased the Greens margin.
History
Prahran has been a state electorate since 1889. It has alternated between the ALP and conservative parties, before falling to the Greens in 2014.
The ALP first won the seat in 1894, holding it until 1900. Liberal MP Donald Mackinnon held the seat from 1900 to 1920. The ALP and conservative parties alternated in control until the 1930s, with the Liberal Party holding the seat until 1945.
In 1945, the ALP’s William Quirk won the seat, holding it until his death in November 1948. The ensuing by-election in 1949 was won by Frank Crean, who had previously held the seat of Albert Park. He left the seat in 1951 when he moved to the federal seat of Melbourne Ports. He served as a federal MP until 1977, playing a senior role in the Whitlam Labor government.
The 1951 Prahran by-election was won by the ALP’s Robert Pettiona, who held the seat until his defeat in 1955.
Since 1955, Prahran has been won by the ALP only four times. In 1955, the seat was won by Sam Loxton, a Liberal candidate. Loxton was a former test cricketer who had been part of Don Bradman’s Invincibles team and played VFL football for St Kilda.
Loxton held the seat until 1979, when the ALP’s Bob Miller won the seat. He held the seat for two terms, and in 1985 unsuccessfully contested the Legislative Council province of Monash.
The Liberal Party’s Don Hayward won the seat in 1985. He had previously held the upper house seat of Monash from 1979 to 1985. He served as Member for Prahran until the 1996 election.
In 1996, the Liberal Party’s Leonie Burke won Prahran. Burke was defeated in 2002 by the ALP’s Tony Lupton. Lupton was re-elected in 2006.
In 2010, Lupton was defeated by Liberal candidate Clem Newton-Brown.
Prahran produced an unusual result in 2014, with the third-placed Greens candidate Sam Hibbins overtaking both Labor and Liberal candidates to win narrowly.
Hibbins was re-elected in 2018, again coming third on primary votes and then overtaking Labor and Liberal to win.
- Alice Le Huray (Animal Justice)
- Matthew Lucas (Liberal)
- Wesa Chau (Labor)
- Alan Menadue (Independent)
- Sam Hibbins (Greens)
- Ronald Emilsen (Family First)
Assessment
Prahran is a complex seat. The Greens won in 2014 and 2018 despite polling third on the primary vote. Hibbins managed to pick up enough preferences from minor candidates to overtake Labor, and then won on Labor preferences (easily in 2018, less so in 2014).
The redistribution has increased the Greens margin over the Liberal Party. It’s also made the seat safer for Labor if they make the top two. The redistribution has widened the primary vote gap between Labor and the Greens, so Labor has a real chance of winning the seat, but Hibbins could well gain enough of a swing to come a clear second on primary votes and win easily on Labor preferences.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Katie Allen | Liberal | 13,956 | 34.5 | -10.3 | 32.5 |
| Neil Pharaoh | Labor | 11,702 | 28.9 | +3.0 | 30.7 |
| Sam Hibbins | Greens | 11,347 | 28.1 | +3.3 | 28.3 |
| Jennifer Long | Animal Justice | 900 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 2.4 |
| Leon Kofmansky | Democratic Labour | 933 | 2.3 | +2.3 | 2.2 |
| Tom Tomlin | Reason | 830 | 2.1 | +2.1 | 2.1 |
| Dennis Bilic | Sustainable Australia | 468 | 1.2 | +1.2 | 1.2 |
| Wendy Patterson | Aussie Battler Party | 156 | 0.4 | +0.4 | 0.4 |
| Alan Menadue | Independent | 130 | 0.3 | +0.1 | 0.4 |
| Others | 0.1 | ||||
| Informal | 2,229 | 5.2 | +0.1 |
2018 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Sam Hibbins | Greens | 23,224 | 57.5 | +7.1 | 58.2 |
| Katie Allen | Liberal | 17,198 | 42.6 | -7.1 | 41.8 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Neil Pharaoh | Labor | 23,263 | 57.6 | +7.6 | 59.5 |
| Katie Allen | Liberal | 17,159 | 42.5 | -7.6 | 40.5 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
The Liberal Party topped the primary vote in the north, and also did best on the special votes. They did worst in the south.
Labor topped the poll easily in the south and narrowly in the centre. The Greens came second in all three areas.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP prim | LIB prim | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 32.3 | 32.6 | 26.6 | 5,494 | 14.3 |
| North | 28.9 | 27.4 | 36.6 | 5,124 | 13.3 |
| South | 33.8 | 40.1 | 18.3 | 3,996 | 10.4 |
| Pre-poll | 26.9 | 30.1 | 34.9 | 15,206 | 39.4 |
| Other votes | 25.3 | 28.3 | 36.2 | 8,730 | 22.6 |
Election results in Prahran at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Labor’s 2002 landslide I meant.
@Trent I actually think Docklands is still better for the Liberals. In 2016 the Liberal TCP (against the Greens) was higher in Docklands than in South Yarra.
Think south Yarra is no longer even pro liberal
@NP I wouldn’t be surprised to be honest, I just assumed Docklands would be similar to Southbank (which generally has a mid-60s 2CP) but you’re right, I think the 2CP in Docklands is only in the 50s. South Yarra has definitely trended much more left and is somewhere in between the two these days.
You’re right Mick it’s not, and as the least “left” and most populous suburb in the seat, the Liberals really can’t win Prahran without winning South Yarra (and by enough to cancel out Windsor and St Kilda) so they have a long way to climb.
This is what I think will also help the Greens easily retain – barring complications from Hibbins re-contesting as an independent – the fact that neither Labor or the Liberals will particularly target this seat or put resources into it.
Labor won’t target a Greens seat that they come third in when they have to fight off the Greens in 4-5 marginal ALP v GRN seats not to mention a swag of marginal ALP v LIB seats, they’ll be on the defensive. The Liberals aren’t going to be targeting 12% Greens seats when there are more than 20 Labor seats on margins less than that in areas that are trending away from Labor.
@Trent I was talking about 2016 in Docklands, the Liberal vote is down heaps now (more than halved). In 2016 the TPP in Southbank was actually 52.4% Labor vs Liberal while the Greens vs Liberal TCP in Docklands was 53.1% and 55.8% in South Yarra.
Docklands, Southbank and South Yarra are all now Greens booths yet they used to be marginal Greens vs Liberal booths where the Liberals finished first but lost to the Greens on Labor preferences. What happened? Surely the massive switch can’t just be from the Liberals moving further to the right since the Greens have been moving further to the left.
BREAKING: Sam Hibbins is resigning from parliament, with a by-election to be called soon.
The circumstances outlined in The Age are very odd. Interesting to see where it goes.
This will be a test for the Greens, will be interesting to see if the other two parties contest this.