Prahran – Victoria 2022

I might’ve misinterpreted the 2018 result. I was meant to say that the Labor candidate had to be in front with Liberals doing ok and possibly better than the Greens (who will get preferences from left-wing parties). Labor could also win if Greens are in front and Labor comes second and then gets Liberal preferences to defeat the Green. If the Liberals are far too behind, like in Melbourne, then Labor won’t get enough preferences.

I don’t think a major party has ever flipped a single-member Green seat that was won at a general election (seats like Northcote don’t count). I believe this has happened in Canada before.

My assumption is that the Greens will almost certainly get the highest primary vote, and The Liberal vote will almost certainly decline.

The real question will be whether the Liberal vote declines enough relative to Labor for them to finish second or third.

If the Liberals finish third and most preferences flow to Labor, it would be the strangest scenario of the Greens going from winning from third place in 2014 and 2018 to losing from first place in 2022.

Very well could see an outcome where the Greens vote increases but the seat changes hands purely as a result of the Liberal vote finishing 3rd. We won’t know the outcome in Prahran for weeks after election day I suspect…

Has there ever been a case of a Green MP (state or federal) retiring in Australia? I imagine that would be the prime opportunity for a major to win the seat back.

I think Fremantle (State) district came close to seeing a Green MP retire. In that case Adele Carles won a 2009 by-election but she left the party mid term prior to the 2013 general election and sat as an independent.

She initially announced her retirement but chose to recontest as an independent. She only managed to poll about 5%, finishing fourth behind the actual Greens candidate.

@Trent You definitely know the area better than me so would have a better idea, i’ve probably lumped in the this whole area with what peoples perception is of the South Yarra area.

@Trent and @Dan M, good point about the high rise public housing, correct me if i’m wrong but Prahran’s always been pretty affluent so these towers would have been built in Prahran when it had affluent residents, compare this to other inner city suburbs where these big public housing towers are that were more working class when they were built and have only recently became more affluent. Although the towers were built decades ago so may not be reflective of the current residents views. I think it’s likely that if you tried to build public housing towers like that in Fitzroy, Collingwood, Carlton and Richmond nowadays they would most likely oppose it, this may also be true in Prahran. It’s harder to oppose something that was there before you.
Also @Trent i’m interested from your time in Prahran about the East Prahran area that borders Toorak and appears to be more residential and more homes. Does the area and residents have the same vibe as the rest of Praharn or is there a bit of difference and some pretentiousness within this area.

Good questions North East.

Firstly, on the high rises, I believe they were built as part of the slum reclamation program so not all of Prahran was affluent. South Yarra has always been affluent, and the Prahran stretch of Chapel Street was always a desirable shopping area, but I believe the western half of Prahran as well as Windsor were a lot more working class for a long time and even included some slum areas, and that is reflected in the housing stock – many of Windsor & Prahran’s terraces are workers cottages, very similar to those in Richmond & Collingwood.

My understanding is that Prahran was one of the first inner suburbs to gentrify – around the 1970s when streets like Greville became very trendy – before other suburbs followed like Carlton & St Kilda in the 80s, Fitzroy in the 90s and Collingwood in the 2000s. But it was always a “poorer” suburb when compared to Armadale, Malvern & South Yarra. Those particular suburbs I think have always given the inner southeast a reputation of probably being a bit more broadly affluent than it actually was/is, because it does vary quite a lot from suburb to suburb, and even within suburbs (Prahran being a great example, more on that later!).

As recently as the mid-2000s, Chapel Street was seen to have a huge socio-economic contrast between its north & south ends. It was pretty much like if you could imagine Glenferrie Road turning into Smith Street, but in the same strip as you moved further south. That contrast has eroded with the decline of South Yarra’s detail strip and the more recent gentrification of Windsor.

As for the suburb of Prahran itself, the western section (the long horizontal part bounded by Punt, Commercial/Malvern, Williams & High) and the eastern section (the tall vertical part bounded by Williams, Malvern, Orrong & Dandenong Rd) have quite a stark contrast.

“Prahran East”, while not its own suburb, definitely has its own identity because there is more prestige associated with it. Its housing stock is mostly larger 3-4 bedroom, free standing Edwardian & Federation homes that fetch well over $2m. There are far fewer blocks of flats, almost no larger apartment developments, Prahran East Village (around Williams/High) feels much more like you’re getting towards Armadale, the closest train stations are Hawksburn & Armadale, and it’s right on the border of both Toorak & Armadale. You’ll see far more European SUVs around, and it always has the highest Liberal vote in the seat outside South Yarra – in fact I think the Liberal vote may have even held up a bit better in that Orrong booth there than it did across South Yarra in May.

By contrast, the heart of Prahran centred around Chapel Street has a lot of flats, a lot of large new apartment complexes, most houses are smaller workers cottages, most residents are renters, there’s a lot of public housing, and its history is more aligned with other gentrified inner suburbs – from working class to artsy to trendy to affluent to now a real mix of everything.

Windsor didn’t really gentrify until late. When I moved into St Kilda around 2005, the “Windsor end” of Chapel still felt run down, characterised by secondhand whitegoods, $2 shops, guitar shops, secondhand CD shops, op shops, old family-run cobblers and electrical shops, etc. It was a lot more like Smith Street in the 2000s, and many people didn’t even know what/where Windsor was, you’d have to say “it’s next to Prahran”. Bars started popping up in the late 2000s and from around 2010-15 it rapidly transformed, and house prices actually doubled in a single year (I think around 2012). Now it’s the most popular pocket of the area.

I just checked the May results and that Orrong booth did hold up better for the Liberals than most of South Yarra.

That booth used to be called Orrong but was renamed “Prahran North East”, and the Liberals got around 34% primary vote and 41% 2PP there. This was roughly a -5% swing compared to 2019.

By contrast, in the South Yarra & South Yarra Central booths they only got around 26% primary vote and 32-33% 2PP. This was a -9% swing in the South Yarra booth and a -15% swing in the South Yarra Central booth!

I think you could characterise the Prahran East area (“Prahran North East” / Orrong booth) as voting more like Armadale with a -5% LIB adjustment. It definitely has a more stable Liberal vote than the rest of the seat and I imagine in November the LIB 2CP will remain in the 40-45% range at that booth too; whereas it is likely to crash below 35% across South Yarra.

Prahran and South Yarra were both in the former City of Prahran but politically were different, with Prahran being the poorer cousin which only started to change after the construction of the Prahran public housing towers and the clearing of local slums, however, many of the worker cottages still remain. Kennett changed the suburb’s boundaries, which is why the Prahran public housing towers are today on the South Yarra side of Commercial Rd. Demographically, Prahran and South Yarra have been popular with renters for decades.

Polling wise, the biggest change has been at the South Yarra end, with the conservatives being stronger at the Toorak Rd/Northern end, when Peter Costello was the local federal MP, he was only polling mid-30s in Prahran/Windsor. However, there has been two notable changes at the South Yarra end, the large redevelopment around South Yarra station, and the Liberal vote has fallen around the Domain part of South Yarra. The Domain area is well established and wealthier with little in the way of new development, however, it reflects the change in who is supporting the Liberals.

Also guys who’s to say the Liberals aren’t going to preference the Greens above Labor the same way they did in WA and QLD elections to stop labor gains? Also A greens MP retired in NSW (or is going to) for the March election so it’ll be interesting how it turns out

Yep based on federal results it would have clearly been an ALP v GRN count and still 50/50 with Libs preferencing Labor.

In no way an easy ALP win based on Libs finishing third… and if Libs do choose preference Greens in a “Put Dan last” campaign then it’s actually an easy Greens win regardless of whether the Libs finish second or third.

Yeah I totally agree with you Trent! In my opinion, I see the Libs going ahead with the Put Dan last choice considering a lot of their candidates (not Prahran) have been posting the “Never forget” lockdown ads and have been putting billboards saying “Put Labor Last” even in a place like Box Hill.

@Trent Thanks for the info, i didn’t know much about Prahran’s history but it does seem there’s a stronger more solid vote for the Libersla there the closer you get to Toorak. Interestingly the booth names for Higgins are a bit all over the place. Toorak West is in the northern part of Toorak and the booth labelled Prahran east is to the west and seems to border Windsor.

Yeah the booth called Prahran East actually changed location between 2019 and 2022, one of them was at Prahran Town Hall @ Chapel & Greville, and other was at Prahran High School which is actually in Windsor. Both are within about 200m of the corner of Chapel & High St so really nowhere near “Prahran East” at all.

Both are also very close to the “Prahran” booth which is at Grattan Gardens on Greville St. So in 2019 in particular, the “Prahran” and “Prahran East” booths were only about 100m apart.

Whereas the booth that is actually in Prahran East was called Orrong, and then changed to Prahran North East. That one is at Our Lady of Lourdes Primary School which is 300m from Toorak to the north and 200m from Armadale to the east.

@Trent Thanks for the info, makes more sense now.

Something tells me this seat will be close. If you notice the Greens have been calling the big guns for door knocks such as Senator Janet Rice, Steph Hodgins-May and former leader Richard Di Natalie. Considering that parties normally do polling and do not reveal. Something says that the Greens are worried about holding this seat

@John

Labor are doing the same in Ripon, pulling out Steve Bracks from the dusty old cupboard.

It’s very interesting to watch the party behaviours. I maintain that Labor are in a far more precarious position than the publicly released polls may have us believe.

@John, I think they’d be worried about the Libs finishing third which makes Labor the favourite. Their analysts would have looked at overlapping federal numbers too and seen that the Liberals would have finished a distant third, but with enough of a vote (approximately 23%) for their preferences to elect Labor unless the Greens have at least a 7-8% buffer over them at the 3CP stage.

I don’t think the Greens would have any concerns about Labor beating them in the 3CP stage, in fact I think an ALP v LIB 2CP is the least likely scenario by far. And the Liberals are no threat at all.

But I think they’d be preparing for a very close ALP v GRN race which could be as competitive as Richmond and Northcote, rather than taking for granted an easy GRN v LIB win.

Interestingly I haven’t seen a single thing for Labor’s candidate yet. Not a poster, a corflute, a letter, nothing at all. So it doesn’t look like they’re even trying (yet anyway).

The Greens absolutely should be worried about this seat because of the prospect of the Liberals falling into third place. They need to build significantly on their support in the last election to protect against this scenario.

What would be the exact breakdown on Federal Figures in Prahran on primaries. This website projects Labor will come a distant third on primaries https://www.aeforecasts.com/seat/2022vic/regular/prahran/. It will be interesting if the Liberals collapse whether it will go to Greens or Labor. I suspect the only area where Labor would gain from Libs would be South of Dandenong Road where there is a significant Jewish community around Balaclava but this is already the Libs weakest and Labor’s weakest area. In South Yarra etc, i suspect it will go from Lib to Greens like it did at a federal level in Ryan and Griffith. It makes sense, that Labor may no longer be interested compared to 2014 and 2018 as they now have seats in Eastern Melbourne and they maybe more concerned about seats such as Melton, Point Cook Yan Yean and Cranbourne etc. If Labor was interested they may have fielded a stronger candidate rather than a recycled one from 2013 when Labor ran dead in Higgins. In a hung parliament the Greens are not going to back Matt Guy so makes sense to focus on seats where there is a Lib/Labor contest.

@Nimalan, I actually calculated the primary votes based on overlapping federal figures in Higgins & Macnamara:

Greens – 38%
Labor – 30%
Liberal – 23%
Other – 9%

I estimate that would have resulted in close to a 50/50 ALP v GRN race.

Regarding the significant Jewish community too, it doesn’t really exist in the seat of Prahran. Balaclava is entirely in the seat of Caulfield (and only 11% Jewish), and only a small corner of St Kilda East (bounded by Chapel, Dandenong, Hotham & Inkerman) is in Prahran but that is probably the least Jewish part of St Kilda East as it is almost entirely flats & young renters, and a large area of that is actually just Alma Park.

Most of what it is south of Dandenong Rd in Prahran is St Kilda itself (the triangle bounded by St Kilda Rd, Princes Hwy & Chapel St) which only has a 2% Jewish population.

The Greens will want to keep Labor out of the top two. Labor obviously want themselves in the top two and then scoop up preferences from Liberals or Greens.

2022 federal figures show that in Melbourne, Wills and Cooper, roughly 70% of LIB preferences go to ALP in an ALP vs GRN contest. It’s not as strong as the flows between Greens and Labor. I’m using these as they are more up-to-date than the state election results.

There may be Green-friendly, left-leaning minor parties (like Reason, Animal Justice) in the race and/or a slim but possible chance of anti-Dan, anti-lockdown candidates ironically preferencing Labor ahead of the Greens.

An ALP v LIB contest is the least likely outcome I think, probably a <1% probability. The only way that could happen is for Labor to increase their vote relative to the Greens and that's not going to happen in an environment where the Greens are surging in the area and Labor are unlikely to do better than 2018 here.

A lot will be uncertain about the Prahran race this year, as with the previous two election, but I think the biggest difference this time is that the Greens making the top 2 is probably the most certain element of the race. The question marks this time are around where ALP & LIB finish.

So the Greens really need one of two things to happen, if not both:
1. Labor to not improve enough relative to the Liberals, for the Liberals to fall to third place; and
2. Greens to have a big enough lead over Labor at the 3CP stage (probably at least 8%) to withstand Liberal preferences flowing 70-30 to Labor

Thanks Trent for the information. I actually thought the Jewish community in this part would be significantly bigger including in the St Kilda Triangle until you just clarified for me. The reason is the Reform Synagogue is on Alma Road, St Kilda near Cnr of Chapel Street, Jewish Museum etc . I am actually surprised that Balaclava (just realised it is not in the seat) is only 11% Jewish it does seem to have a lot of stores catered to the community such as Glicks, Kosher Butchers and even the Coles there has a Kosher section. St Kilda East is 26.4% Jewish which is huge compared to state average of 0.7% but as you pointed out that maybe concentrated east of Hotham road.

Also Trent, regarding the St Kilda Triangle i always felt that area especially around the Astor/St Michaels Grammar has a different vibe/community of interest to the St Kilda around Fitzroy Street etc feels closer to St Kilda East/Balaclava etc not really a beachside vibe. i actually like the area but i dont think it is as well known as St Kilda near all the touristy areas and nightlife. The Triangle/St Kilda East may have the largest concentration of 1960s walk up flats in Greater Melbourne. Keen to know your views as a local resident if it fits better in Albert Park, Prahran, Caulfield etc.

Nimalan, you’re right that there are definitely notable Jewish institutions in the area, however I feel they are mostly patronised by the population that lives east of Hotham Street. Walking around the streets, you actually see very, very few Jewish (at least visibly orthodox) residents living in the flats & terraces within that triangle of St Kilda, or even the northwest corner of St Kilda East.

A part of that is as you say, the whole area bounded by St Kilda Road, Princes Hwy, Hotham St and Carlisle St probably has the highest concentration of 3 storey walk-up blocks of flats in all of Melbourne. Many of those buildings have a single owner, with relatively cheap rent. The result is a really high population of renters, mostly young, on low to middle incomes. East of Hotham Street it immediately becomes leafy with detached houses, and the large Jewish community is immediately evident.

Similarly, Carlisle St in Balaclava is the main central shopping strip for the entire St Kilda East area, and retains a lot of the Jewish businesses that have been there for generations (just as the Jewish institutions in St Kilda have been retained), but those businesses and institutions are mostly catering to the population who now live in St Kilda East, Caulfield North and Ripponlea. Balaclava itself is mostly renters in flats, or young couples in renovated Victorian terraces.

Regarding which electorate this triangle of St Kilda best fits in, I think Prahran. The demographics are similar, and due to the housing profile I described above, a lot of Prahran/Windsor hospitality workers actually live down at the St Kilda end where it’s cheaper. It’s well connected by the Sandringham Line and 78 tram.

I actually think all of St Kilda would fit better in Prahran than Albert Park to be honest, even the beachside part has more in common with Windsor/Prahran than it does with Port Melbourne & Southbank, whereas the St Kilda Road precinct fits better with Albert Park & South Melbourne. I supported the original redistribution proposal which would have united St Kilda in Prahran.

You’re right though that the eastern triangle area is not as well known. It actually gets mistaken for St Kilda East quite commonly.

@ Trent, regarding the Jewish institutions in the St. Kilda area it maybe a bit like Lygon Street, Carlton which is is Little Italy but hardly any Italian Australians live there these days. There is actually more people in Carlton who speak Somali than Italian. In the next decade we may see the same thing in Richmond where Victoria Street will still be referred to as Little Saigon and host cultural events but the Vietnamese community continues to shrink.
Regarding Albert Park/Macnnamara, much of the future population growth will occur in the Fishermens Bend Urban Renewal Area which maybe mean St Kilda will need to be split off in any case. St Kilda West IMV maybe more like Albert Park, an elite area. This may hurt Labor longer term and help the Greens.

In the case that the 3CP has the Liberals in third-place, what proportion of their preferences would go to the Greens versus Labor? (That way we can estimate the required Greens 3CP vote as a function of the Liberal 3CP vote…)

@Nicholas I mentioned previously that based on 2022 federal figures in Melbourne, Wills and Cooper, roughly 70% of Liberal preferences flow to Labor in Labor vs Greens contest. I used the federal election figures because they’re more recent than the last state election figures. Funnily enough, in Sydney and Grayndler the flow from Liberal to Labor (vs Greens) was much lower at around 65% (vs 35%).

I don’t see Prahran getting called on election night, similar to how the federal result in Macnamara was unknown for a while.

That’s the million dollar question I think!

Votante indicated that in the northern suburbs seats it tends to be around 70-30 to Labor, but I think it will be a bit more favourable to the Greens here because it’s a different profile of Liberal voter; probably more of a teal inclined Liberal voter in an area like this.

So I’d say even if the Liberals directed preferences to Labor, a range of factors could mean Labor only get 60-65% of them. But then the wild card is, what if the Libs choose to “put Labor last” everywhere to increase the chance of a minority government?

My estimate is that the Greens lead over Labor would want to be the equivalent of 35% of the Liberal vote (that would withstand a 67-33 preference flow to Labor). So if the Liberals’ 3CP is 26%, then the Greens would want to be at least 9% in front of Labor.

But also who’s to say the Liberal vote increases or does better as a whole in Victoria. Yes Labor is progressive but so is the Liberal candidate who is in support of LGBTQI+ issues and is one of those climate liberals. It’ll be extremely interesting to see the preferences of the Liberals as even Lucan Moon is Richmond have started posting Anti-Lockdown sentiment. But again, Greens seem to be calling the big guns for this seat. So it may be more competitive than we expect. And using Trent’s numbers, the Macnamara candidate was an anti-climate right wing nationalist, for example she called teaching climate “child abuse” and praised anti trans sentiment. So considering the now Liberal candidate is more progressive than both Katie Allen and Colleen Harkin meaning Liberals could finish second or even first

@ Votante: “I don’t see Prahran getting called on election night, similar to how the federal result in Macnamara was unknown for a while.”

I’ve been thinking about this too. I think the likelihood of the seat being called on the night will depend on how clear the 2CP challengers will be on the night. I envision 3 possible scenarios:

1. A CLEAR GRN v LIB COUNT:
I actually think this is the most likely (perhaps ~60% probability) because while I think the Lib vote will collapse, I think Labor will go bit backwards too which will make it harder for the Libs to fall to third, especially after minor preferences probably favour them.

In this scenario, it will be called on the night because it will be a clear GRN win (probably 62-38 or more).

2. THE 2CP REMAINS UNKNOWN:
I’d rate this the second most likely, probably ~30% probability. This would be if the ALP v LIB race for second is very close, specifically if Labor have a small lead, so the order won’t be known until postals are counted and minor preferences distributed (both likely to favour Liberal).

In this scenario, it will be like Macnamara and won’t be called for days.

3. A CLEAR ALP v GRN RACE:
Much less likely (<10% probability) because it would require a huge swing between LIB to ALP which a rising Greens vote will stifle; but it's not out of the question because this would actually have been the outcome based on overlapping federal results.

In this scenario, it may or may not be called on the night based on whether they conduct a 2CP recount on the night (my guess is that GRN v LIB will be the default one), how the Liberals direct preferences, and whether the 3CP gap between Greens and ALP indicates a clear winner or not.

The 4th scenario is an ALP v LIB race but I think that can be ruled out. It could only occur if the Labor vote increases relative to the Greens which won't happen in this current environment.

TLDR – Based on @Votante ‘s claim comment, the Greens may need *at least* 41% of the 3CP vote to win if the Liberal 3CP vote falls below 30%. That does sound like a tall order.

***

If we assume the 3CP has Liberals in third-place, and that 30% of Liberal 3CP prefereces flow to the Greens…

Greens 2CP (versus Labor) in terms of Greens 3CP and Liberal 3CP:
GRN_2CP = GRN_3CP + 0.3 * LIB_3CP

Obviously, for the Greens to win, this needs to be above 50%:
GRN_3CP + 0.3 * LIB_3CP > 0.5

Rearrange and we find what the Greens 3CP needs to be in terms of the Liberal 3CP:
GRN_3CP > 0.5 – 0.3 * LIB_3CP [1]

Let’s find the “crossover point” where a sufficiently high Liberal 3CP would mean the required Greens 3CP would lead to a Greens versus Liberal 2CP anyway. This of course would occur when the Labor 3CP is below the Liberal 3CP, and where we assume the Greens 3CP is just barely enough to defeat Labor on the 2CP (as per equation [1]):
ALP_3CP < LIB_3CP
1 – LIB_3CP – GRN_3CP < LIB_3CP
1 – LIB_3CP – (0.5 – 0.3 * LIB_3CP) 0.294

So if the LIB 3CP is above 29.4%, and the Greens 3CP is sufficient to defeat Labor on a Greens versus Labor 2CP, the 2CP will be Greens versus Liberal anyway.

So, what happens if the Liberal primary is 29.4%? From equation [1], the Greens will need 41.2% of the 2CP vote to win.

From there, a 1% decrease in the Liberal 3CP corresponds to a 0.3% increase in the required Greens 3CP.

Oops, looks like WordPress comments don’t play nice with less than and greater than signs. That last block of equations is meant to read:

ALP_3CP is less than LIB_3CP
1 – LIB_3CP – GRN_3CP is less than LIB_3CP
1 – LIB_3CP – (0.5 – 0.3 * LIB_3CP) is less than LIB_3CP
LIB_3CP is greater than 0.294

The Libs have been distributing flyers saying “Put Dan last”. I’d presume that this would bolden the Greens’ chances of retaining here.

My assumption is that the Liberal Party know they have little to no chance of winning the election, so their objective is to reduce Labor to a minority government, even if that emboldens the Greens who they are even more ideologically opposed to.

They would do so as more of a long term strategy – reducing Labor’s seat count for 2026, and being able to use a “Labor-Greens coalition” line of attack in 4 years time which would probably resonate well in outer suburban seats that might be more winnable in 2026 if they dramatically reduce the margins this year.

In any case, if the Liberals do make the strategic decision to “put Labor last” then the Greens will hold Prahran regardless of the 2CP contest.

I wonder if the VEC will do a 3CP count on the night? I think the federal election – Macnamara in particular – really demonstrated that 3CP throws on the night should be considered in these types of contests.

On that topic too, if Labor do lose enough seats to a combination of Liberals, Greens & Independents to be close to minority government, but then Labor win Prahran off the Greens due to Liberal preferences and it secures a majority government, they’d kick themselves.

So to me, it would make sense for the Liberals to keep Prahran in Greens hands rather than potentially gift a gain to Labor when they’re trying to reduce their majority.

The Libs haven’t released their HTV card yet for this seat but even if they do preference Labor above the Greens, given how much they emphasise on putting Dan last in the other seats, the preference flow to Labor will likely be much weaker than usual. If the Libs go ahead and preference the Greens ahead, then it is a certain Greens retain.

Said it before and I will say it again …if I was the Libs I would preference against the sitting member in likely Labor vs Greens contests. Pins the resources of both down.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/vic2022/prahran2022/comment-page-2#comment-777332

In Richmond and Northcote, the Liberals directing preferences to the Greens could make the seats less competitive, as they are competitive without Liberal preferences.

In Footscray, Preston and Pascoe Vale, it would make the seats more competitive.

I’ve always thought I understood our preferential voting system fairly well, but I’ll admit that some of this (very interesting) discussion around this seat has me a bit confused.

In 2014 and 2018 the Greens came in 3rd on first preference votes and still managed to win on preferences, so why will the placement (1st, 2nd, 3rd) of the three parties make an important difference this year as to whether the Greens or Labor get up? E.g. why is it that the Greens seem to have a better chance of winning coming in 3rd than they do coming in 2nd (with the liberals in 3rd)?

Won’t it ultimately come down to how many Liberal preferences flow to Labor or the Greens?

Julian, it’s not about their order on the primary vote, it’s about their order when all the other candidates are eliminated (the 3-candidate-preferred or 3cp).

The Greens came second on the 3CP in 2014 and 2018, with Labor third. So Labor was eliminated, with most of them flowing to the Greens.

The Liberal preferences (which have usually favoured Labor) only come into play if they drop into third. If they stay in the top two they don’t have their preferences distributed.

So if the Liberal Party drops to third then Labor can benefit from their preferences and the race turns into a different kind of contest. The Greens can still win (as they did in Melbourne and Brunswick) but need more of a lead over Labor to do it. Whereas when Labor and Greens are competing for second place, a 1-vote lead is enough.

What Ben said.

Really it’s not so much about where the Greens finish in the 3CP count (they just have to be top 2, and finished second in 2014 & 2018 after minor preferences), but where Labor and Liberal finish because the preferences of whoever finishes third will decide the winner.

Labor preferences typically flow about 85-15 to the Greens, so when Labor finished third in 2014 and 2018 their preferences elected the Greens.

Liberal preferences typically flow about 65-35 to Labor (in this sort of area, higher to Labor elsewhere), so if the Liberals get eliminated their preferences could elect Labor.

If that were to happen, then the Greens really have to finish first with at least an 8-9% lead over Labor to hold on.

By the way, I based that 65-35 on Richmond 2014 which I think is more comparable to Prahran than seats like Brunswick and Northcote which are more like 70-30, because Richmond is closer to Prahran, more inner city, similar demographics and doesn’t include the more suburban pockets like Thornbury and Coburg further north. Also because the inner south tends to have more Blue/Green Liberal voters than socially conservative ones, hence the teals doing well in neighbouring seats.

For people in the area, is Labor putting as much effort this time around as they did with Neil Pharaoh as the candidate last Election.

Not at all that I’ve seen. I haven’t been up to South Yarra for a while but I live in the St Kilda end and have regularly been up to Windsor and Prahran.

Haven’t seen a single Labor poster, haven’t received a single Labor flyer.

There is Sam Hibbons stuff everywhere though. Laneways plastered with posters, ads in phone booths, corflutes in windows, received a few letters and pamphlets and even had a door knock.

In 2018 I saw Neil Pharaoh out and about quite a lot and there was a lot of advertising too.

Word of the mouth rumour is that the Libs are preferencing the Greens ahead of Labor here along with all other seats considered Labor/Green contests in order to emphasise their “put Labor last” campaign. If that is true, I can’t see anything but a comfortable Green retain here and there would be plenty of inner northern and western seats in play now.

I assume the same can be said of Richmond and Northcote?

Well yes Richmond and Northcote will most likely be certain Green gains if the rumours are true. It would make things in Albert Park, Footscray, Pascoe Vale, Preston and Williamstown interesting.

Imagine if the result of the election is the Liberals fail to win any seats but the Greens gain seven thanks to Liberal HTV cards…

That’s very well possible and the Libs might even end up going backwards in net seat gains due to losing seats like Caulfield and Glen Waverley to Labor. I’m guessing they’ve realised they won’t get into government so the next best thing they could do is try and force Dan Andrews into minority territory with the Greens so they can run a scare campaign on a Labor-Green coalition on for 2026. Whether that actually works is another thing but they really are running out of options. Even if the Greens gain 7 seats from Labor, Labor still has a 4 seat majority.