ALP 12.8%
Incumbent MP
Jill Hennessy, member for Altona since 2010.
Geography
Western Melbourne. Point Cook covers suburbs near Port Phillip Bay between Melbourne and Geelong, specifically Altona Meadows, Point Cook, Seabrook and Werribee South. Altona covers south-eastern parts of the Wyndham council area and a small part of Hobsons Bay council area.
Redistribution
Point Cook is a new name for Altona. The seat shifted south-west, losing Altona, Altona North and Seaholme to Williamstown, and losing the suburb of Laverton to the new seat of the same name. Point Cook took in Werribee South from Werribee. These changes cut the Labor margin from 14.6% to 12.8%.
History
Point Cook replaced Altona in 2022. Altona was first created for the 1992 election, and it has always been held by the ALP.
The seat was first won in 1992 by Carole Marple. She held the seat for one term, but before the 1996 election she was defeated for preselection by Lynne Kosky.
Kosky was re-elected in 1999, 2002 and 2006. She served as a minister in the Bracks government from 1999 to 2010, most recently as Minister for Public Transport. She retired from politics in January 2010.
The 2010 Altona by-election was won by the ALP’s Jill Hennessy. She won despite a large swing to the Liberal Party, which cut the ALP’s margin from 20% to under 8%. Hennessy has been re-elected three times, in 2010, 2014 and 2018.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Jill Hennessy is not running for re-election.
- Carolyn Cronkwright (Family First)
- Terri Beech (Animal Justice)
- Shamsher Khan (Greens)
- Larry Zhao (Independent)
- Angela Newhouse (Liberal)
- Alex McAulay (Victorian Socialists)
- Lisa Jane Gatti (Transport Matters)
- Emma Law (Health Australia)
- Rakhi P. Chaudhary (New Democrats)
- Mathew Hilakari (Labor)
- Adrian Abdulovski (Freedom Party)
- Shwetali Sawant (Independent)
- Scott Grimley (Derryn Hinch’s Justice)
- Daniel Hamman (Democratic Labour)
- Joe Garra (Independent)
Assessment
Point Cook is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jill Hennessy | Labor | 24,112 | 51.4 | -0.5 | 49.7 |
| Christian Martinu | Liberal | 11,194 | 23.9 | -7.6 | 24.2 |
| Tony Hooper | Independent | 5,861 | 12.5 | +12.5 | 13.5 |
| Emma-Jane Byrne | Greens | 4,217 | 9.0 | -1.0 | 7.9 |
| Maria Aylward | Independent | 1,522 | 3.2 | +3.2 | 3.1 |
| Others | 1.7 | ||||
| Informal | 2,699 | 5.4 | 0.0 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jill Hennessy | Labor | 30,264 | 64.6 | +2.0 | 62.8 |
| Christian Martinu | Liberal | 16,607 | 35.4 | -2.0 | 37.2 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: north-east, north-west and south-west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 56.6% in the south-west to 74.7% in the north-east.
| Voter group | IND prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-West | 20.3 | 62.5 | 9,951 | 25.8 |
| North-East | 9.4 | 74.7 | 4,637 | 12.0 |
| South-West | 27.4 | 56.6 | 3,681 | 9.5 |
| Pre-poll | 18.5 | 59.9 | 15,694 | 40.7 |
| Other votes | 14.9 | 61.6 | 4,643 | 12.0 |
Election results in Point Cook at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and independent candidates.
Hasn’t been mentioned previously but I think this seat is in play, especially with the retiring high-profile incumbent MP
Probably a Labor victory with a ~5% swing to the Liberals. If the Victorian Liberal Party wasn’t run by complete imbeciles with no concept of electoral strategy, they would win here.
Why is Labor in trouble here.. 12% margin. I.dont understand
This is an area that is vehemently anti-lockdown and anti-mask which would be a concern to Dan Andrews.
Labor held this on federal figures with a margin somewhere between five and ten percent.
The state Libs’ strong Trump-like populist stance would play well here at the expense of the Eastern suburb seats.
IMHO, if this seat excluded Altona Meadows and included Williams Landing instead it would be winnable for the Libs. Altona Meadows is solid working class while Point Cook/Williams Landing are growth areas with a middle class demographic.
Well Lalor barely swung compared to other nearby seats, but that was with barely any effort. I imagine if the Liberals run a strong localised campaign they can maybe cut down the margin to 5%.
I also think, as previously stated, that the Liberals should push for Williams Landing to be incorporated into the seat at the next redistribution; though working & middle class areas will likely both swing to the Liberals this cycle, it will likely be until well into the 2030s until they can make 50% of the 2PP in more established blue collar areas. These new growth areas, though volatile in how they vote, can be much easier for the Liberals to capitalise on.
Most of the district of Point Cook, including the suburb of Point Cook, is in Gellibrand.
Most of the polling booths in the district of Point Cook swung to the Liberals in May (although voters from other parts of Gellibrand would have influenced some of that, particularly those in Laverton).
The Liberals getting the margin down to 5%, if they run a good campaign, seems like a good prediction. It is a likely future marginal seat. The Liberals don`t need 2PP majorities in the established blue collar areas to win, they only need any overall 2PP majority in the whole seat. The growth areas are also growing as a proportion of the seat, compared to the established blue collar areas, likely helping the Liberals. It is likely to be a key marginal in 2026.
How long has Angela Newhouse, the Lib Candidate been active. When was she preselected by the Liberals??
If there’s any seat in the West to fall to the Liberals first, it’ll be this seat or Melton. Point Cook and especially Sanctuary Lakes are becoming more wealthy and less traditional working class like Kororiot or Laverton. If this seat doesn’t fall at this election it’ll happen within the next few cycles anyway purely based on how the demographics are trending.
This area barely swung at all in May (1% movement both ways) but both Labor and Liberal primary votes were will down, but voters can differentiate between state parties and federal parties pretty well.
Joe Garra officially running for this one https://amp.abc.net.au/article/101479084
I suspect Garra will do quite well here, but the loss of the existing support from the district of Werribee doesn’t do him many favours either.
This area of the western suburbs is trending away from the Labor party, it’s more affluent than other electorates. It’s becoming more like some Western Sydney electorates which are much more marginal compared to much of Western Melbourne which is mostly safe for Labor.
The ALP candidate here is parachuted from the south eastern suburbs, and with the retiring incumbent this will certainty be interesting to see if Garra manages to win this seat, but seems odd he’s left it right until now to announce his intention to run.
Suspect Garra will make the final 2PP but not confident enough yet to say he will win the seat. Time will tell I guess
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/vic2022/pointcook2022/comment-page-1#comment-776050
Since this is the Liberals` second best seat west of the Maribyrnong River (after Melton) and they have previously made noises about putting more effort into this seat, there will be a proportion of Garra 3CP voters (including some Greens and some of any others) who preference the ALP ahead of the Liberals and most of Garra`s existing support base (such as presumably most of his patients) seems to be in Werribee (and to a lesser extent Tarneit), there is a reasonable chance that Garra could fail to reach the 2CP (by being bellow the Liberals) but still have a hypothetical 2CP majority against the ALP.
Joe Garra would be better off sticking in Werribee rather than running here because the Libs seem to be putting in quite a bit of effort here and this seat is one the Libs can do relatively well in.
I’m expecting big swings against Labor through seats like this & Werribee due to the lockdowns
In this seat Labor chose a former staffer with no local connections to run in this seat. The Liberals have instead in Tarneit and Cranbourne chosen diverse candidates who reflect the area. In a seat where there an expected backlash it shows they are not paying attention to the seat.
I’m convinced this seat will flip, Labor candidate is a parachuted dud, and the margin here is one of the smallest in Western/Northern suburbs of Melbourne asides from Melton.
If Garra manages to establish a local profile and makes the 2CP he’ll win, otherwise the Liberal candidate will win. If Jill Hennessy was still running though, I suspect Labor wouldn’t be in nearly as much trouble.
“Hilakari”… looks like that’s a Finnish surname. I suppose that’s some claim to diversity!
11 Candidates! And that’s before nominations close… so could change. I guess everyone wants a crack at this seat with ALP’s perceived weakness. (ALP, LIB, GRN, AJP, FPV, VS, DLP, ND, IND x3) Surprised that many independents! And with a high amount of candidates, might dilute Joe Garra’s (IND) chances.
Point Cook and Melton are the most likely “red wall” seats that will go down to the wire.
The ballot paper order is important if there’s a lot of candidates. I’m guessing that when there’s 10+ candidates, many people will donkey vote or vote 1 for their favourite candidate and then number randomly without regard to who gets their 2nd preference.
There are 15 candidates here, tied with Werribee for the highest number of candidates in a lower house seat this election. There are 14 in Melton.
Jill Hennessy was very respectful and extremely admirable on the ABC election coverage 4 years ago. I never want to lament Labor retirements but I felt something. I hope she is on the panel again this year.
Is there any sense in Garra running here other than he wants to be seen as principled in running in the electorate in which he resides?
The only part of Point Cook district that was transferred from Werribee district is Werribee South, so I assume he lives there.
@ Nicholas, Correct Garra lives in Werribee South which is rock solid Liberal being a semi-rural area full of market gardens and the same source of Victoria’s vegetables a bit like the Hawkesbury.
Garra’s probably done what he thinks is the right thing by running in the seat of his residence but has probably hurt his chances as correct me if i’m wrong but most of his connection to community especially through his work is in Werribee. Werribee South also seems to be a bit disconnected from the rest of this seat.
For all the hype, Garra’s PV was ultimately under 7%. In the distribution of prefs he finished fourth, and was overtaken by the Greens.