Narre Warren North – Victoria 2022

I wouldn’t be surprised if this seat fell to the Liberals given there was a bit of a swing to the Liberals in Bruce and nearby La Trobe (even though none of La Trobe is in this seat it’s not a dissimilar area). Not sure the effect of Luke Donellan’s branch stacking will have, I doubt many people from this sort of area would be aware of this, but it certainly can’t help. I know he isn’t running but it could damage the Labor brand locally. Probably unlikely in this electorate which I feel isn’t particularly politically engaged, but could play a small part.

Interestingly when Narre Warren North and South were created in 2002 they were both notionally Liberal but were won by the Labor party and have been held by Labor ever since. I wonder what the boundaries were at the time, did both seats extend further east, did Narre Warren North go further north.

I suspect branchstacking scandals come to the attention of very few voters and influence even fewer.

@North East

From 2002 to present, Narre Warren North has:
• lost part of Berwick,
• gained the balance of Narre Warren and Hallam (the old boundaries excluded a large chunk of the area around Fountain Gate),
• gained the balance of Endeavour Hills (old boundaries excluded the northwestern corner).

@ North East, Agreed with Nicholas. Also I feel Narre Warren North is more Liberal leaning than Narre Warren South . The latter seat has improved significantly with a lot of Berwick transferred out to the new seat of the same name. Narre Warren North is also a more affluent seat as it is closer to the foothills and has some massive brick palaces of its northern fringes. I feel the recent redistribution has actually slightly improved it for the Libs. Lysterfield South (used to be in Rowville) but has no booth (I estimate if it did would be one of the strongest booths in this part of Melbourne). Lysterfield South would in IMV be the wealthiest suburb in Outer South East Melbourne excluding Beachside ones like Mt Eliza etc Also the James Cook PS booth is 70% but last time would have had voters from Doveton as well. On the other hand Narre Warren South does not really have any affluent areas only growth areas and working class Hampton Park. Narre Warren North it is really only Hallam that is working class and rock solid Labor

@Nicholas Thanks for the info, having Berwick in this seat definitely would’ve helped the Libs here, especially as i don’t think the new estates had been built there by 2002.

@Nimalan Agreed that Narre Warren North has some affluent areas, the suburb of Narre Warren North is pretty affluent in itself. It’s interesting that Lysterfield South doesn’t usually have a booth, did it have one at the federal election. I find this is the same with Eaglemont, sometimes it has a booth and sometimes it doesn’t. If Lysterfield South doesn’t have a booth at this state election then it’s likely that the Endeavours Hills booths will become a bit less friendly for Labor although Lysterfield Souths population isn’t very big so overall it may not have a massive effect on the election result.

@ North East, Lysterfield South did not have a booth at the federal election either which is a shame as these booths are often an outlier and interesting to analyse. Narre Warren East (Yarra Ranges) which is semi-rural also did not have a booth at the recent federal election but did at the last state and this often of one the most lopsided booths. Other booths that i wish existed include the Scotland Island booth in Mackellar or Christmas Hills (McEwen) both of which existed in the past and were interesting as well.

The Libs need to make inroads in these areas if they want to be a credible force, but the problem is all their organisation and people is still centred on Hawthorn and Key.

@Nimalan Yes i have a feeling Christmas Hills would be a booth with a high Green vote but one where the Libs could be competitive in normal election cycles.

The LNP will need to win a seat like this if they want to get back into office, personally I don’t think its a long shot as the margin is inflated from the 2018 high tide, a retiring member who will have some sort of personal vote (as well as the branch stacking controversy which will have a negative impact) & also the federal results were not great for Labor here.

Labor is in trouble here, I’d say this is a likely Liberal gain. With the absence of an incumbent MP, the federal results here were really bad for Labor and the UAP vote was also quite high in this area in May, the conditions are good if the Liberals want to win this electorate.

Also this seat was notionally Liberal when it was first created based on the 1999 results, so you could argue the area has swung to the Liberals in sizeable numbers before.

@Ham

See my comment above, the original boundaries of Narre Warren North were more favourable to the Liberals.

But I agree with you, this seat may be vulnerable.

Agree with Nicholas, loosing a part of Berwick and gaining more of Hallam makes a significant difference as the two suburbs while not that far apart geographically are very different socio-economically and in terms of voting patterns. In a sense Narre Warren and Endeavour Hills act as Transition suburbs like Mulgrave.

After the way narre warren north has been treated by luke donellan and belinda wilson it is very hard to trust them now

Taking bets on Timothy Dragan being the next Lib candidate to be disendorsed by the party pre-election…

Report to hit media today with his colourful views on Indigenous Australians (including the line “we won this land fair and square”), Abortion and Women’s rights in general, opposition to action of climate change and that he didn’t even vote for the Lib candidate where lives (Berwick) because he thinks Battin is a prick.

The Liberal candidate here has just given Labor this seat & another term. If the LNP can’t choose proper candidates they might as well just not bother contesting.

Yeah agree.. but a seat like this
Is the sort of seat the libs need to win to have a chance at government.. they currently have
No chance here.this explains in a macro sense the Vic election

The news about Dragan today might be the final nail in the coffin of the Libs’ campaign.

Coming after 3 disastrous days – IBAC referral by VEC, Trump like accusations of vote rigging and interference, Renee Heath’s disendorsement, and someone they preferenced above all other parties (other than themselves, Bernie Finn and UAP) in Western Metro making public death threats – this just cements the view now that the Victorian Liberals are not a mainstream party of government.

Labor could easily package all that up into a very effective final week ad campaign.

Labor literally has to do nothing as the LNP seem to have this habit of shooting themselves in the foot.

Yes Bob.. I agree

Timothy Dragan has given Andrews an early Christmas present. The Liberals will be in panic mode now some will be reluctant to disendorse Dragan as it is much needed seat and in an election where the Libs are not making in roads into Eastern Suburbs/Sandbelt there is no path to victory without Narre Warren North. However, if they dont move quick enough it will damage their prospects in Hawthorn, Caulfield etc and Pesutto etc may publicly call for Dragan to be disendorsed against Matt Guy.

Reckon they should use animated cartoons in election campaigns yes .. Bernie is no friend of the liberal party.. he is
Their own Marjorie Taylor Green ..nuts

This kind of thing will keep happening because this is increasingly who the Liberal party is: weirdo religious nuts and angry, entitled, racist young men. Marcus Bastiaan ruined the Victorian Libs. They will never be a plausible alternative government.

This seat was never in doubt. It means that all parties need to better their candidate vetting processes even in safe seats.

This seat is on the Liberals path back to government, and think it will be easier for them to gain this seat than some of the seats they held 2010-14, but they’re not going to get it this time.

The Liberal Party can’t keep running conservative Young Liberal weirdos and expect to win marginal seats. If there’s a political realignment on which basis they want to win, and there very well may be, the candidates should reflect it.

Turns out Dragan doesn’t even believe in early childhood education. Where do the Libs find these morons?

I still see a 2PP swing to the Liberals following preferences from socially conservative and anti-Dan parties even with a drop in both Labor and Liberal primary votes. This is what happened in Bruce at the federal election.

Well the preference flows to the Dragan from the far right and anti Dan groups will be even stronger now. That being said, the drop in Labor vote won’t be as bad as thought before and Labor will be able to retain more comfortably.

@Expat what do you mean by early childhood education?

When asked about Andrews’ announcement on expanding free kinder, he said he didn’t believe in kindergarten anyway.

Which if you ask any primary school teachers, is pretty disastrous – kids who show up for prep without any preschool are already a year or two behind.

I did not have any preschool and i turned out ok..ask moderate he may disagree.. but
Seriously times have changed since the late 1950s early 60s
And early child hood education is necessary.. actually when I was in early school I could not write .. but verbally knew all the answers.. was that a developmental delay ? Probably yes

“Expat November 21, 2022 at 5:32 am
When asked about Andrews’ announcement on expanding free kinder, he said he didn’t believe in kindergarten anyway.

Which if you ask any primary school teachers, is pretty disastrous – kids who show up for prep without any preschool are already a year or two behind.”

So, please explain to me how somebody who doesn’t believe in kindergarten expands the program at a cost for the budget… I think that you may have misinterpreted what Andrews said (or perhaps you are misreporting?)… That can only be “disastrous” for you, not for Andrews.

Well, in the old days almost no one did kinder, so there wasn’t much of a difference in playing field.

I probably should have been clearer above – it’s not necessarily that “no kinder = you’re stuffed”, just that it gives you a significant advantage if you do have it. Many studies have shown that kids who have a good preschool education perform far better, all the way through school, because they have a head-start. Even just in terms of fine motor skills, social skills etc.

Expat we are in basic agreement

If this thread is to be taken at face value the voters in this district are very aware of who their Liberal candidate is and their misgivings but have completely forgotten what the sitting member did.

Well, seeing as there isn’t a sitting member…

I realise he isn’t re-contesting but I find it hard to imagine that there’s a big cohort of people who know not of Donnellan’s activity but are aware of what this Liberal candidate is about. I suspect most people know about neither or both, be interesting to see how this one plays out

@Alpo, it was the rogue Narre Warren North Liberal candidate, not Andrews, who said he didn’t believe in kinder at all (that was his response when asked about Andrews’ policy for free kinder). Expat was quoting the Lib candidate, not Andrews.

OMG, Alpo please read.

I was talking about Dragan.

Re-reading my comment, I can see how it could maybe seem ambiguous – but yes, it was Dragan who said that he said he didn’t believe in kinder.