Northcote – Victoria 2022

With the slender margin the Greens have a real shot of winning this seat back.

Greens’ have announced Campbell Gome, a local primary school teacher as their candidate.

I think the Greens are in with a very decent chance, but in saying that inner Melbourne electorates have generally stuck by an incumbent Labor MP as what occurred with Richard Wynne in Richmond staying around for so long and Jane Garrett in Brunswick.

Will be interesting to see if Kat Theophanous is able to continue her hold on this seat.

I would say that Labor has not done itself any favours with the protesting laws in an electorate such as this.

The Greens saw a 6 point swing in the Federal Electorate of Cooper and a 3 point swing state wide. If the Greens repeat anything that looks like the Federal election result in November in Victoria then Northcote is one of those seats where you’d be putting that in the Greens column.

Of course in these contests the candidate matters an enormous amount but this is a race that is very easily winnable for the Greens.

I wouldn’t read too much into the federal swing here – that can be seen as a reversion to the mean after a poor Greens campaign (and very large swing to Labor) in Cooper in 2019. There’s also a potential incumbency advantage for Labor which wasn’t there last time. The Greens have gone from a high-profile but polarising candidate to a lower-profile one; will be interesting to see how that works out.

Definitely a marginal seat, but I would have it behind Richmond on the list of potential Green gains.

Northcote is quite defendable for Labor. Its small margin is misleading and the Greens vote is a bit inflated. In 2018, Lidia Thorpe had the advantage of incumbancy and was a high profile, albeit polarising and vocal, MP. She won at a byelection in 2017 without a Liberal contender.

Longer term, the Greens could gain Northcote.

With Labor environmental laws been heavily criticised by the Greens I could see them getting over line here.

I do not suspect the Greens brand will have a massive increase this cycle. This means that if they want more representation, they should focus on Richmond and the Legislative Council. However, I suspect that the Greens could gain Northcote and Albert Park within the decade.

Berwick equivalent in Sydney seems to be the area around The Ponds, Marsden Park and Scholfields

*My mistake read in Berwick thread

Does Dan Andrews have more green appeal than Anthony Albanese?

There were massive swings away from Labor and to the Greens in Cooper at the federal election.

The swing from Labor to the Greens in Cooper was entirely expected. If anything, it is almost surprising it wasn’t greater – the Greens haven’t even halfway recovered from their catastrophic performance in 2019!

Nicholas, This was because Ged Kearney is more progressive than your average Labor MP and she has more appeal to Union and Green voters, Afterall she led the ACTU for 8 years prior to entering politics!

Feeney, the former MP was a bad fit for Batman that is why they almost lost this area in 2016, and you only need to look at the results in 2016 vs 2019, every booth south of Bell street voted for the Greens in 2016, in 2019, Kearney won every single booth.

There is no reason why if Labor has a strong candidate/MP that has progressive credentials can’t hold this seat for the long haul, of course it will remain competitive, but if the 2016 figures were translated to this state seat, Labor would have been thrashed here and it would be a safe Greens seat. If Labor plays there cards right like they are doing in Cooper/Batman then they won’t lose this and even if they did, it would remain a tight contest.

I don’t know much about the incumbent MP here or her ties to the left, however at the same time Lidia Thorpe was not the best candidate for the Greens and you can simply see this by the controversial statements she makes, such as her colonizer remark a few weeks back, a Sarah-Hanson-Young or a Lidia Thorpe type could never win this seat unless Labor blew it with a David Feeney.

Labor can keep the Greens from gaining seats this fall in Victoria, and by playing their cards right by picking the right candidates who appeal to unions, green voters (climate voters) and young voters, they can keep the Greens from gaining much ground in Melbourne and might even get a swing in their favor.

Kearney is part of the reason, but the Greens also had a terrible campaign in 2019. Alex Bhathal (who was the candidate in the by-election and prior) left the party due to bullying.

I was going to ask why there were huge swings in Cooper/Batman but the explanations above make sense.
Alex Bhatanal ran at several elections in Batman (federal) and Northcote. She might be the only ever non-incumbent Greens candidate to beat the major parties on first preferences but not win. She did this in 2016 in Batman. I think the Greens had a great asset before she quit.

To be competitive in this area, Labor would need a left-leaning candidate who could align with voters on climate change, human rights, housing affordability etc. It’s like how the Liberals would need a small l-liberal (not Tony Abbott) who can be in touch with local voters in affluent, inner-city areas.

Lidia Thorpe wouldn’t win Northcote if she were to run again because of her profile and stances. Someone like her could win in Newtown, NSW because there are more young voters, university students and socialists.

Doesn’t seem like the Greens are trying all that hard.

The Greens seem to be running a low profile campaign to keep their current seats and pick up Richmond and South Metro. Campbell Gome gets the occasional social media post but not what you’d expect for a target seat.

They haven’t even preselected in their 3rd strongest prospect (Albert Park). This is despite reasonably strong state results, a non zero chance of getting Lib HTV preferences (opens up several seats), empty seats in strong Green areas (Albert Park, Monbulk). There’s a teal movement with not quite as much momentum as the federal teals. This is good for preferences looking at e.g. Casey where Greens did quite well on 3PP off a weak teal’s preferences. But Greens have barely even started campaigning in seats like that.

They also seem to be expecting no GVT preferences. Greens actually did ok in the GVT game in 2014 and in 2017 WA but seem to have given up.

This election is looking like one where people aren’t particularly happy with the incumbent ALP government, and the honeymoon for Albo may be over, but that doesn’t mean they want a Liberal government. Greens have every chance to soak up a big protest vote. But not with a mediocre campaign they won’t.

Any news lately about the “on the ground” campaign?

With a slender margin in Northcote and a statewide and nationwide swing to the Greens at the federal election, you’d think that the Greens would be optimistic and riding off a high, right?

It’s been pointed out previously, but the Greens don’t seem to be going all that hard here for what would be a target seat compared to previously – but that’s purely my observation. Greens do however seem to be going very hard in Richmond.

Vic Labor is quite a progressive party compared to federal Labor, I wonder if we will see many voters jump ships from Greens to Labor in November or vice versa. Plenty of reasons for voters on both sides of the left spectrum to flip.

I’ve seen far more yard signs up for the Labor MP than the Greens candidate. Not really sure if that’s an indication of anything.

John’s post was from over a month ago. I agree @Ham that Vic Labor is more progressive than federal Labor.

I had a look at TAB’s betting odds (It can be interesting though not always trustworthy). They have individual seat bets. In Northcode, the shortest odds are for a Greens win. It suggests Labor’s in trouble. In Richmond, they have Labor and the Greens neck and neck.

I think more Greens voters swung to Labor in 2018 (I was one) and will probably revert back to the Greens this time.

When I say “I was one”, I did so in Prahran rather than Northcote, but I just mean more broadly in these close ALP/Greens contests.

@Votante Betting odds aren’t the be all and end all for seat predictions but are interesting to look at. In the federal election they completely underestimated Labor in Higgins and Tangney (as well as Menzies though the Libs still managed to barely win it) as well as Dai Le in Fowler and Sophie Scamps in Mackellar.

@Dan. Betting odds are interesting. We don’t have reliable seat by seat polls but TAB has their own betting odds for key seats. They do get predictions wrong of course, as do opinion polls. They predicted the right federal winner in 2022, unlike in 2019. They didn’t foresee the green wave and teal wave at the federal election. Then again, I didn’t either. I think they predicted 2 or 3 (not 4) Greens seat wins. You’re right that they didn’t foresee the victories that you mentioned.

Will Senator Lidia Thorpe have an effect on the Greens vote in Northcote?
After all, she was the previous local member here.

Lidia Thorpe is hated among the general population, but loved by the Green base it seems. Not sure how she is perceived by voters that swing between Labor/Greens.

What’s getting missed is even on the recent federal results Labor would have still held Northcote based on the results of the booths in the state seat of Northcote. That’s why you need to be cautious just noting the six percent swing in Cooper and suggesting the Greens will gain it because of the slender margin. Incumbency and what’s known as the ‘sophomore surge’ will also help Labor here.

I would honestly thought that Greens have a better chance here than Richmond

I would say of the 4 inner city Greens-versus Labor seats. Northcote has generally been the weakest for the Greens. Generally, Richmond has been better for the Greens than Northcote. Richmond has some very left-wing territory around Fitzroy. While parts of Northcote such as Alphington/Thornbury are not as left-wing. As Richmond is an open seat i can see the Greens doing quite well especially in Northern parts although some areas such as Cremorne/Burnley are more centrist and maybe put off by Lidia Thorpe

What sort of people live in Alphington?

@ Nicholas, Alphington tends to be very affluent these days it has quite high property prices of $2.1 million, has median weekly incomes. The SEIFA score is 94. Compared to Northcote it tends to be more suburban and has a village feel tends to be quieter as well has less retail etc. It has significant Greek community and Alphington Grammar was started by that community and even tends to attract students from the Manningham area etc. Alphington also borders Ivanhoe, Kew two elite/old money suburbs and has quite leafy neighbourhoods surrounding the creek/Yarra River. I am actually surprised at how low the Lib vote and how high the Labor vote given the demographics.

That would explain why the LNP do better on the eastern side, but with such a slender margin wouldn’t Labor be in trouble especially with their protest laws?

@Nimalan Alphington is extremely socially progressive despite it’s relative affluence. It’s a similar reason to why Ivanhoe, despite being very affluent, has Labor doing rather well there though Labor and the Greens do even better in Alphington than Ivanhohe.

Good Point Dan M, Ivanhoe/Eaglemont are quite progressive despite being elite suburbs on par with suburbs such as Kew, Beaumaris and Malvern etc. The Boulevarde, Ivanhoe is one Melbourne’s most desirables addresses. I wonder if a Teal ran in Jagajaga how well they would do even if they dont ultimately win. I would also say Eltham is affluent (not to the extent of Eaglemont etc) and progressive as well.

@Nimalan a teal candidate would only really be competitive in more affluent suburbs along the Yarra River like Ivanhoe Eaglemont, Lower Plenty and Eltham. The rest of the seat has a lot traditional working class Labor voters who would never vote Teal or Green particularly in economically deprived Heidelberg West

@Dan M, Agreed it is really only those 4 suburbs where a teal could do well. I also agree that Heidelberg West Public Housing area is one of the most deprived areas of Melbourne along with Doveton, Broadmeadows etc. However, i would not really say any of the other Jagagjaga suburbs are working class all of the others tend to above Melbourne Average. Some of them such as Watsonia/Bundoora tend to be transition suburbs like Mulgrave others stereotypical middle class such as Yallambie/Macleod, most of Greensborough/Briar Hill etc. Although there some affluent pockets in other parts such as Greensborough east of Plenty River, St Helena, Research, Viewbank etc but these tend to be more traditional Lib/Labor suburban areas.

@Nimalan it’s probably also worth keeping in mind the Libs generally do pretty poorly in Melbourne especially compared to Sydney. Labor does consistently hold suburbs like Mulgrave and Watsonia/Bundoora/Macleod/Greensborough by safe margins when the Sydney equivalents would probably be marginally held by either major party while the marginal areas in Melbourne would be pretty comfortable Lib areas in Sydney.

Greens have completely lost touch with the community in Darebin and nowhere is this more evident than within Darebin Council, where Greens lost 25% representation (4 Councillors down to 3) at the 2020 Local Government election, against a backdrop of increased Greens Councillors being elected across Victoria.
During that election campaign, many voters in Darebin witnessed the Greens Deputy Mayor at that time engage in some pretty wild social media behaviour, including the bullying of a woman in her community whom the Greens Deputy Mayor repeatedly – bizarrely – accused of being a male political opponent.
Had Greens won Northcote at the last state election, the community would have to go to the partner of a motorcycle gang leader each time they needed assistance from their local MP.
And let’s not forget that their most popular Federal candidate to ever run in the area, Alex Bhathal, was brought down and bullied into quitting by Darebin Greens Councillors.
The toxicity of the Darebin Greens branch has been long lived and well entrenched. Their quiet man candidate in Northcote clearly does not seem to be the type of person who could stand up and change it, which means that a vote for Greens in Northcote is just a vote for a person that would be influenced by a small cabal of toxic personalities.

Greens could win the Victorian election outright and have their own Premier, but they’d still lose Northcote due to the stench of the Darebin Greens.

Note that I voted for and campaigned for the Greens in my first few years of living in the electorate, however swung back to Labor at the 2013 election once I saw what was starting to happen to the Darebin Greens branch.

Matthew, you seem very bitter, seeing as Thorpe only briefly dated Dean Martin and he hadn’t been a bikie for years at that point. Someone in the Darebin branch run over your dog or something?

As I literally said, Wilson, the Greens Deputy Mayor (Susanne Newton) in 2020 targeted and bullied a woman online (a close friend of mine) to the point where I had to scramble mental health support for her during a big COVID lockdown. An actual woman. Not a dog. And yes there are numerous screenshots of all this bizarre and embarrassing schoolyard behaviour from our Toorak-raised former Deputy Mayor.

Superb downplaying too of the sordid Rebels bikie affair – I’m sure there was nothing sinister about it, which is why Senator Thorpe using Signal to communicate with Mr Martin and deleting messages weekly and not declaring the potential conflict of interest to Parliament were all mere oversights, huh?

It is this attitude within Darebin Greens that turned me and many, many others off from volunteering for them – and the community off from voting for them.

Darebin Greens are a blight on the party. Again, I don’t see anything changing for them because it will take some hard self reflection for them to even start to change.

As if Labor are somehow any better Matthew. I couldn’t give a shit about their behaviour as long as the pump out good policies – the thing that actually matters. Their behaviour doesnt affect my life whatsoever.

The Greens candidate in Northcote is a strong one. Campbell Gome is absolutely embedded in the community, people know him, actually KNOW him, and he knows the Northcote community. Campbell’s running a good, positive, respectful campaign. Was looking back on news articles from previous campaigns and the Labor seems to rely heavily on smear tactics, which is just horrible, it actually harms people, is a cynical and nasty approach.

But, we’ve got really great policies. So good, that it seems Labor is often keen to pick them up down the track. tbh, don’t really care, just so long as they get done.

Ah “Strangist” you indeed are a strange one. Although I’m sure you’d fit right in at the Darebin Greens branch, where your entitled, win-at-any-cost and to hell with the community attitude would complement the in-house bullying and regressive attitudes toward women’s safety that served the Greens so well in 2018, when the Greens had their Parliamentary representation decimated in half.

Here in Northcote the Greens have been reduced from holding offices of Darebin Mayor, a State MP and higher Federal primary vote across 2016/17, to now barely holding a third of Darebin councillors (with two set to retire and the other set to be jumped on by a local independent candidate). All for what? Nothing to show for it but a bag of marketing tricks and social media whizz bangs designed to keep a few kids like you entertained.

Hey Mary D’Raben, I’m not sure what “smear campaigns” you are referring to – perhaps elaborate on this if you wouldn’t mind?

I find it strange that you say that Campbell Gome is running a good, positive and respectful campaign. Just this evening a community forum was being held at The Peacock Hotel in Northcote. What did Campbell do? Just to try and ruffle the feathers of Kat Theophanous, the hard working and approachable Labor MP for Northcote, Mr Gome made social media posts with a “testimonial” from someone he passed off as a “Mark from Thornbury”, who included some nasty words about Kat in his ‘testamonial’.

Only thing is that “Mark from Thornbury was actually Mark Tregonning, a long time Greens member and one time Greens candidate for Darebin Council. The whole charade was revealed as nothing but two entitled white men bullying a woman who is working her hardest for her community. Once Gome and Tregonning were called out on it, the social media posts were altered with sudden edits to remove the harsh and unjustified words about Kat. Go look at his Facebook post from 9 November – see it for yourself. Is this respectful behaviour toward women?

Mark of course couldn’t help himself and felt entitled enough to yell and heckle over Kat almost every time she spoke at the event this evening. Greens haven’t learnt a thing and are still just a bunch of angry white men who cannot stand a more progressive, more successful and more intelligent woman having a say.

It was a shameful display and prior to this incident I actually thought that Campbell may have been a little better than the rest of the Greens we’ve had in our community.

Clearly not.

Matthew is clearly a Labor party fanboy masquerading as a principled former Green. Suggesting that the current MP has performed poorly is hardly “bullying” or “harsh and unjustified”, it’s simply an opinion, and one you’d expect to see on a candidate’s page when referring to their opponent. The rest is hearsay and histrionic mock outrage.

Whatever you say, Wilson.

I don’t need to prove anything to you, but I will state again that I did vote for, campaign with and support the Greens during my first two years here in Darebin. Alex Bhathal still remembers me from our mornings spent handing leaflets to commuters outside Croxton Station during the 2010 Federal Election.

I have no problem with anyone giving their opinion, either. If someone genuinely feels that someone is doing a poor job, then by all means say it. “Mark from Thornbury” appeared to do just that. Except it was actually Mark Tregonning.

So you’ve missed the obvious issue – that passing off the commenter as just a regular community member, when they are in fact a member of the Greens, part of your campaign team and a former candidate for the Greens – well, that’s deceitful at best, isn’t it?

What it amounts to is two men, pooling together their collective wisdom to come with a baseless and unevidenced slagging off of a woman who I have seen do nothing other than work tirelessly for her community. “I think Kat been a poor MP” (a totally [sic] burn, coming from a lawyer and a teacher 🙄)

Your stance is clearly that misleading the community, men grouping together to diss a woman doing her job, and not giving any example of why – is all part and parcel of what? Doing politics differently?

I’ve never once seen our two Labor MP’s – either Kat or Ged – act in such a childish manner. But again, you do you.

For everything else, there is video evidence.

Lmao Matthew have a sook.

Also the Darebin Greens have transformed into one of the more principled branches in the state. It’s actually incredible how they’ve managed to turn themselves around in such a short time. They aren’t the branch that hounded Alex Bhathal (who is actually on the campaign trail for Campbell Gome but hey, don’t let facts get in the way of your faux “outrage”) during her campaign in 2017.

The ALP’s slogan in these inner city seats is very effective. ‘Action not words’ rings true when the Greens can say whatever they want and not have to deliver because they won’t form government.

The Northcote voters should be complimented for having the decency to vote out the vile Lidia Thorpe at the last election. It’s just a pity that the end outcome was the entire state of Victoria having to put up with her antics.