LIB 10.0%
Incumbent MP
Gary Blackwood, since 2006.
Geography
Eastern Victoria. Narracan covers the Shire of Baw Baw and north-eastern parts of the Cardinia council area. Narracan covers the towns of Warragul, Narracan, and a number of smaller rural towns between Melbourne and the Latrobe Valley.
Redistribution
Narracan lost Moe to Morwell, and gained an unpopulated part of Gembrook. This change increased the Liberal margin from 7.3% to 10.0%.
History
Narracan was first created at the 1967 election. It has been held by the Liberal Party for most of that time, except for the period from 1999 to 2006.
Narracan was first won in 1967 by Liberal minister Jim Balfour, who had previously held the seat of Morwell from 1955 to 1967. He held Narracan until his retirement in 1982, serving as a minister in the Liberal state government until 1977.
Narracan was won in 1982 by John Delzoppo of the Liberal Party. He served in a variety of Opposition frontbench positions during the 1980s, and when the Liberal Party won power in 1992, he was elected Speaker, serving in the role until his retirement in 1996.
In 1996, Narracan was won by Florian Andrighetto, also a Liberal. Andrighetto held the seat for one term, losing Narracan to the ALP’s Ian Maxfield in 1999.
Maxfield held the seat for two terms. He increased his margin to 6.8% in 2002, but a swing of over 9% in 2006 saw him lose to the Liberal Party’s Gary Blackwood.
Gary Blackwood has been re-elected three times.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Gary Blackwood is not running for re-election.
- Michael Abelman (Liberal Democrats)
- Tony Wolfe (Independent)
- Alyssa Weaver (Greens)
- Austin Cram (Animal Justice)
- Sophia De Witt (Democratic Labour)
- Casey Murphy (One Nation)
- Ian Honey (Independent)
- Brendan Clarke (Family First)
- Leonie Blackwell (Freedom Party)
- Wayne Farnham (Liberal)
- Annemarie McCabe (Independent)
Assessment
Narracan is a safe Liberal seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Gary Blackwood | Liberal | 23,207 | 51.7 | -3.5 | 55.7 |
| Christine Maxfield | Labor | 15,946 | 35.5 | +6.1 | 31.9 |
| William Hornstra | Greens | 2,679 | 6.0 | -3.0 | 6.0 |
| Carlo Ierfone | Independent | 1,613 | 3.6 | +3.6 | 3.7 |
| Guss Lambden | Independent | 1,425 | 3.2 | +3.2 | 2.8 |
| Informal | 2,559 | 5.4 | +1.2 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Gary Blackwood | Liberal | 25,724 | 57.3 | -4.0 | 60.0 |
| Christine Maxfield | Labor | 19,203 | 42.7 | +4.0 | 40.0 |
Booths have been divided into four areas: Warragul, central, north and west.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 55.5% in Warragul to 62.8% in the north.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 58.3 | 10,398 | 26.6 |
| West | 58.6 | 3,601 | 9.2 |
| Warragul | 55.5 | 3,380 | 8.6 |
| North | 62.8 | 2,138 | 5.5 |
| Pre-poll | 64.9 | 15,661 | 40.0 |
| Other votes | 59.0 | 3,954 | 10.1 |
Election results in Narracan at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
Entrepreneur you make a damn good point. I was more surprised by the Nats getting 15% on Bass than by them winning Morwell. I would have expected 10% max in Bass. They might have serious momentum in Narracan. It would also seem that they would be in with a chance in Monash in 2025 – assuming Russell Broadbent retires then.
Most likely Labor won’t run here, and if they do they CERTAINLY won’t be running Maxfield. They’ve already won a majority and there’s no reason to pick up another seat. This will be a Nat v Liberal contest and I’m willing to bet the Nats will be eyeing this seat very seriously.
Adda are you saying you would
Give me 10 for 1 I outlay
?
Ok I outlay $3 AND I GET $30 if alp wins.. ? Ok
The by-elections will be held
Yes that’s what I’m saying – pending more details on the contest that is. Though maybe I’d insist on a minimum of $10 vs $100.
Sure min bet $10 I get $100 back only if Labor wins if any other result you win.. if that is ok
Supp election will be on or near 17/1/23. Hope that is ok
If variation in the contest that is
No alp candidate .. there is no bet.all other contests our bet stands. If you wish to have me bet less than $10 pls let me
Know
It works for me but let’s talk more when the date/candidates are confirmed.
Do you have a preferred platform for private communication? Not exactly convenient to discuss things on this page.
Sure email. mickquin@ozemail.com.au
I want to.you.in.our bet
I find it bizarre that the VEC hasn’t set a date for a supplementary election yet. My parents live down there and are under the impression it will be held before Christmas. That leaves really only two weekends (10/12 or 17/12, surely the VEC staff don’t want to be working on Christmas Eve haha). I imagine they’ll end up leaving it till the new year.
Timing .vec cannot sort out a date till after the writs are returned for the state election.
Ie 17/12/22. Then the need
To effectively issue a written
For this seat. There are I think
Min notification periods for any
Election..My guess is some where around 17/1/23..that is the best I can work out. Please remind your parents that their vote does count
This is John’s first test as a leader, if this seat is close or falls to an independent or unlikely Labor he will most likely be removed as leader.
In 1999 the Frankston East supplementary election was three weeks after the general election, so I’m not sure why it has to wait for the return of the writs this time, unless the law has changed in the meantime.
Election date here has been set, for the 28th of January 2023.
Age says neither Labor nor the Nationals to contest Narracan.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/on-the-ground-in-the-one-victorian-region-still-in-state-election-mode-20221229-p5c97z.html
Is that the case .pity because. Labor could have. Made a contest of this supplementary. Election
Labor is disgusting for not contesting, by not contesting they are basically telling the voters of Narracan that they can’t vote Labor at the state election, since this will contribute to the statewide TPP. They should contest just for the sake of it being part of the Victorian state election because if not I will consider never voting Labor again.
Daniel Andrews is a coward for not getting someone to run here. Can’t be bothered giving your supporters a chance to vote for a Labor candidate at all???
Daniel
I can see the argument for running for the sake of running, but it really would just be Labor pissing away time, money and resources on an election they won’t win, where they would’ve received a swing against them if it had gone ahead in November and, ultimately, will have no impact on the operation of the parliament.
Lib v Grn 2cp or is there time for an independent to get into the mix?
It’s pretty standard for a party to not waste resources running in a by-election (which this may as well be) in a seat that you aren’t going to win.
I have other posts I think Labor had a chance here. Remember the demographic change and that Mr Blackwood won by defeating the sitting.alp member
@Douglas, there is an Independent in Tony Wolfe running.
Current candidates nominated according to the VEC are:
-Wayne Farnham (Liberal)
-Tony Wolfe (Independent)
I’d expect this to be updated post New Year break with Alyssa Weaver (Greens) as the article mentions she’s still campaigning. I see Casey Murphy (One Nation) looks like she’ll nominate too according to her Facebook campaign page on a post 21/12/22. And looks like Leonie Blackwell (Freedom Party) will run if the wording on her website (and according to an article in the Gazette although dated 1/12/22). That same article says Laura Rees (AJP) would consider running again if time permits. I tried looking into Hannah Dart (Family First) but couldn’t find anything.
So it looks like a rehash of the original intended election: (minus ALP, NAT, FF)
-Leonie Blackwell (Freedom Party)
-Wayne Farnham (Liberal)
-Casey Murphy (One Nation)
-Alyssa Weaver (Greens)
-Tony Wolfe (Independent)
POSSIBLE: -Laura Rees (AJP)
It makes sense for the Greens and minor parties to run, as they’ll receive public funding if they exceed a 4% primary (which they have a greater chance of if both Labor and the Nats aren’t running). The money is a pretty trifling sum to Labor, though.
Funny enough this and Morwell tend to.go the same way at the same time
Sorry Adda no bet..
If this is the case, then why on earth did they intend to run in November? You run to run up the statewide TPP, but they will lose like 0.5-1.0% of their statewide TPP because they didn’t run here. unless the AEC refuse to count it? It would be 100-0% on the TPP. Undemocratic.
Daniel, the major parties typically run in all seats for general elections because they can centrally nominate candidates and pay a large lump sum which they will likely recoup. Most candidates nominated through this process will have minimal support and/or financial backing.
For a by-election, it likely isn’t worth a party’s time to just nominate a single candidate, so they will abstain and not have a candidate.
If Labor thought they had remotely any hope of winning, they’d have run.
The fact they won’t even put up a token campaign suggests pretty strongly they know there was no chance.
They guessed but my opinion.is different…Labor did the same with North West Central.byelection in wa.and my opinion was they could have won
@Daniel
One key reason is that at a general election, you run in as many seats possible because there is also voting for the upper house.
Experience shows that your upper house vote is greatly increased if you also have a lower house candidate running in that seat.
At by-elections, there’s no upper house election taking place.
I had a look and for 2018 it appears the VEC didn’t do a TPP count for Richmond since the Coalition didn’t contest it. So I’m guessing the same will be the case here and the overall state TPP will remain as is?
Libs should have stepped aside and allow the Nats to have a clean run here in respect for the passing of the former candidate. This was done in other occasions in other countries. Such as in the UK recently early last year, and in 2016.
Liberals have taken the regions for granted, and Labor hasn’t taken them seriously at all. While I don’t get how this “Nationals for regional Australia” appeal is working, it clearly works in most rural parts of Australia, so why not here? Why not in Farrer? Why not in Wagga Wagga, or Gray? Or O’Connor, or Indi. Why do the Liberals won these areas instead of the Nationals when the Liberals are out of touch with regional values??
Daniel T,
You are confusing two very different things. A by-election created by the death of a sitting member versus a supplementary election created by the death of a candidate.
@Daniel T, you make ask a good question why certain seats are not contested by the Nats. I would say big Regional cities such as Wodonga, Cairns, Townsville, Albury etc were more Liberal than Nats historically. Also there are some areas where the Liberal brand works better for what ever reason such as the Western District (VIC). Areas like Kalgoorlie/Grey etc were historically better for Labor but with relative population decline these seats now have expanded to include more rural areas and now Labor now longer competitive. I believe a perfect seat for the Nats to run would be the seat of Barker especially the Riverland. If Hume went westwards to Gundagai, Yass and excluded the Macarthur Region and Southern Highlands then it would be better for the Nats to run. With Respect to Narracan, i feel it is too close to Melbourne for the Nats to be competitive maybe the Nats should run in Eden-Monaro and Ripon instead of the Libs going forward.
Daniel T,
The Nats haven’t contested Narracan since 2006. Just because their candidate died doesn’t mean Liberal should have stepped aside. The UK examples you give were when an incumbent MP was murdered.
Daniel T, I don’t claim to be an expert on this, but I believe the Nationals as a federal party were only really a ‘thing’ in the mainland eastern states. Hence Barker and the WA rural federal seats not having a Nats presence. (Although admittedly the Nats have some presence at state level in WA).
I think there have also been some specific issues in individual seats. e.g. last time Farrer was a three cornered contest, Susan Ley (Lib) as a relatively young female was seen as a better/more attractive candidate than the Nationals’ older male. I’m pretty sure I remember some public consternation among the Nationals at the time for running “60 year old male farmers all the time”.
The Nats had a poor choice of candidate because they did not vet the candidate here. The damage done could not be repaired that is why they are sitting this one out. This damage done to the coalition.. if part of the reasons I think Labor had a chance… but
Already 9 candidates. Greens, Independent, Animal Justice, Liberal, Labour DLP, Liberal Democrats, One Nation, Family First, Freedom. Will be interesting to see if any more nominations come through before Friday
What is Labor dlp?
Mick
The DLP, as in Adem Somyurek’s party.
DLP will get a big vote from confused ALP voters
Western Victoria is pro-Liberal in nature because the farmers there are richer (particularly with more dairy farms) than in the north and east.
Voted today.
There is an overwhelming number of people either taking a Liberal how to vote card, or arriving with a liberal card they’ve been posted or from the local paper.
It’s unclear who the TPP will be against speaking with a candidate there but the feeling appears to be either Green or Wolfe. If thats the case it could be massive Liberal TPP win… Freedom Party candidate was something else in person too… loud.
Tony Wolfe seems to be an interesting candidate, relatively progressive (including in climate/renewable energy) but also a blokey tradesman type from the power industry. Should pick up votes from people who’d normally vote ALP but who don’t want to vote Green.
I would agree with you, if Tony had a presence.
His advertising strategy around the area is a Wolfe head with a QR code and a slogan “put a Wolfe in Parliament”.
In 2022 he only announced a few days before early voting started, and with two other independents, it seems like he is just getting lost in a larger field with more people gravitating to the Libs over others and buying into their advertising locally which is far clearer than at the general election.
@Robbie I don’t think the greens will make the TPP. The Labor vote will most likely be split between Wolfe and the greens but an overwhelming majority of these Labor votes will go to Wolfe, this isn’t the most green friendly area.
I would have said the same if there wasnt multiple independents and if the greens didnt have a 6% head start on Wolfe.
I do think that of the 30% – 35% that normally vote labor here, maybe somewhere up to 10% will jump over to the greens, giving them really a say 15% or so primary vote, Tony needs to at least match that to be considered for the TPP… That is what makes it harder for him. Factor in 2 other independents who might pull 1-2% of the vote, that only works to hurt his chances.
Does anyone know of anyone doing live coverage of the election night?
Daniel – 6news is, don’t know the extent of ‘live’ but there definitely will be a stream for it
Estimating a Liberal hold. Perhaps worth watching for the performance of the Coalition in regional seats for the upcoming NSW election.
As expected the Libs retained it very comfortably. However, the Libs did experience a 12% drop in the primary vote compared to last time. The Libs would be pretty nervous if that drop in primary vote continues on in future elections. Unfortunately for Wolfe, the large crowd of candidates meant the preference leakage rewarded the Libs. Would have been interesting if there were fewer candidates since Wolfe could consolidate their vote. The One Nation vote was pretty significant here. The DLP did pretty well too, benefiting from confused Labor voters.
That being said, Labor and the SFF would be pretty worried in the regions in the NSW election given the strong Nats performance in both the federal and VIC elections. This might end up saving the Coalition by offsetting losses to Labor in Sydney with Nat gains from the SFF in the regions.